Heavy-Novel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

57.0%

Resolved

Trades

173

lifetime

Volume

$783

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 06-27 14:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

64% 38% $-2

Other

23% — —

Sports

8% 0% $-2

Politics

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 27 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	2	$40	25	25	+0	open	—	01-25 11:17
xrp updown 15m 1770294600	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	02-05 12:44
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$39	31	31	+0	open	—	03-20 11:47
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$36	19	19	+0	open	—	01-30 09:15
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	7	$36	19	19	+0	open	—	01-10 02:59
eth updown 5m 1773909300	1	$35	39	0	+39	open	—	03-19 08:39
Seeker FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$34	20	20	+0	open	—	01-21 03:26
eth updown 5m 1773471000	1	$33	35	0	+35	open	—	03-14 06:54
will sinners win best original screenplay at the 98th academy awards	2	$30	16	16	+0	open	—	03-05 19:52
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	2	$24	16	16	+0	open	—	02-27 21:18
xrp updown 15m 1771398900	1	$22	22	0	+22	open	—	02-18 07:29
will alphabet be the third largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	2	$20	12	12	+0	open	—	02-18 10:36
xrp updown 15m 1772588700	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	03-04 01:59
eth updown 5m 1776343200	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	04-16 12:44
eth updown 5m 1776928200	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	04-23 07:14
xrp updown 15m 1768737600	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	01-18 12:14
btc updown 15m 1772006400	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	02-25 08:14
eth updown 5m 1775307000	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	04-04 12:54
xrp updown 15m 1769167800	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	01-23 11:44
eth updown 5m 1774682400	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	03-28 07:24
xrp updown 15m 1775907900	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	04-11 11:59
sol updown 15m 1769754600	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	01-30 06:43
xrp updown 15m 1767964500	1	$18	19	0	+19	open	—	01-09 13:27
eth updown 5m 1774683900	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	03-28 07:49
eth updown 15m 1770793200	1	$10	18	0	+18	open	—	02-11 07:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	6	$7	12	12	+0	open	—	05-22 13:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	6	$7	8	8	+0	open	—	05-22 13:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	6	$7	16	16	+0	open	—	06-03 13:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	4	$6	19	19	+0	open	—	06-03 13:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	3	$5	11	11	+0	Down	+$1	05-13 07:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-27 14:07:04	btc updown 5m 1782569100	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x317694…
06-27 14:06:40	btc updown 5m 1782569100	Down	SELL	7	19¢	$1	0xbb96f5…
06-27 14:06:23	btc updown 5m 1782569100	Down	BUY	7	11¢	$1	0x089708…
06-27 14:01:05	btc updown 5m 1782568800	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xc84046…
06-27 13:59:08	btc updown 5m 1782568500	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x04b2a4…
06-27 13:53:23	btc updown 5m 1782568200	Down	SELL	6	34¢	$2	0x6022a3…
06-27 13:53:14	btc updown 5m 1782568200	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xa7efdd…
06-27 13:52:44	btc updown 5m 1782568200	Down	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x89f3de…
06-27 13:52:32	btc updown 5m 1782568200	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x3f869f…
06-03 13:53:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x0f1a43…
06-03 13:53:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x81c3fb…
06-03 13:52:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	SELL	12	23¢	$3	0xe63975…
06-03 13:51:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x246bde…
06-03 13:48:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	SELL	6	24¢	$2	0x0f80d9…
06-03 13:48:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xeb6b77…
06-03 13:47:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x29d0a7…
06-03 13:47:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xe6b404…
06-03 13:47:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0x6a56f0…
06-03 13:46:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x12743e…
06-03 13:41:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	3	50¢	$2	0x21bc51…
06-03 13:41:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x67c10a…
06-03 13:36:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xb9a268…
06-03 13:36:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	SELL	8	16¢	$1	0x3bbf66…
06-03 13:35:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x62cc78…
06-03 13:31:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xafb559…
06-03 13:31:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x659624…
06-03 13:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xcb7d44…
06-03 13:25:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x6d974c…
06-03 13:22:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xff000a…
06-03 13:21:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x5da70b…
06-03 13:21:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x5c72e5…
06-03 13:16:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x7e37fb…
06-03 13:13:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x97734e…
06-03 13:11:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x4e5c8d…
06-03 13:11:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xb7a8db…
06-03 13:06:16	Knicks vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x6e6a85…
05-29 13:48:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	7	24¢	$2	0x22edac…
05-29 13:47:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x632712…
05-29 13:43:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	7	50¢	$3	0x854769…
05-29 13:42:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xb5655f…
05-29 13:41:46	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xda9f35…
05-22 13:18:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	SELL	6	31¢	$2	0x46d9a4…
05-22 13:18:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xcf428a…
05-22 13:17:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	SELL	4	33¢	$1	0x228cd5…
05-22 13:16:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x4220db…
05-22 13:16:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0x79a933…
05-22 13:15:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x664b68…
05-22 13:13:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	SELL	3	52¢	$1	0xff38cb…
05-22 13:13:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x9a3b9a…
05-22 13:12:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0xbb828b…
05-22 13:12:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x33ee7c…
05-22 13:10:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	SELL	3	55¢	$2	0x2ffb01…
05-22 13:10:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xcd6c7a…
05-22 13:07:55	Thunder vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x903599…
05-13 07:34:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	SELL	4	41¢	$2	0x41e34a…
05-13 07:33:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xe591f9…
05-13 07:32:38	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	SELL	6	29¢	$2	0xd795d3…
05-13 07:31:53	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xc0513f…
05-13 07:28:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	SELL	6	22¢	$1	0x5fc36a…
05-13 07:28:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x99ab31…
05-13 07:22:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xf4b0dc…
05-13 07:21:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x930b8c…
05-13 07:19:17	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	SELL	3	74¢	$3	0xc4dde8…
05-13 07:19:08	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x4693d7…
05-13 07:16:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	SELL	11	31¢	$3	0xf4a438…
05-13 07:16:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x828961…
05-13 07:15:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x1f0cf2…
05-13 07:14:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x44f1e1…
05-13 07:11:28	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Pistons	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xda8758…
05-09 07:22:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xee4d5a…
05-09 07:17:59	Solana Up or Down - May 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	SELL	7	2¢	$0	0x4e0edb…
05-09 07:16:11	Solana Up or Down - May 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x1d519c…
05-09 07:13:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x04aafa…
05-09 07:12:15	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x3b74dc…
05-09 07:11:24	Solana Up or Down - May 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x525a71…
05-09 07:10:23	Solana Up or Down - May 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x5fedeb…
05-09 07:07:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x113188…
05-09 07:06:25	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x58d003…
05-09 07:03:42	Thunder vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x7dbe07…
04-30 12:52:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	SELL	9	39¢	$4	0xa1b7c9…
04-30 12:51:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x1aaf65…
04-30 12:47:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xabb0a6…
04-30 12:46:36	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xf52c63…
04-30 12:43:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x6ffc99…
04-30 12:41:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x7ff8c3…
04-30 12:41:30	Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	Timberwolves	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xabfc49…
04-30 12:40:58	Knicks vs. Hawks	Knicks	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xaf3d03…
04-27 14:18:44	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x137e87…
04-27 14:18:32	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	15¢	$1	0xba7293…
04-27 14:18:10	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	6¢	$0	0x7ebcee…
04-25 14:17:08	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	26¢	$1	0x79cf15…
04-25 14:16:48	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x1736e2…
04-23 07:21:30	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x53ae82…
04-23 07:20:06	nba den min 2026 04 23	Nuggets	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x146b2e…
04-23 07:18:14	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0xd2d944…
04-23 07:18:02	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x8e85f4…
04-23 07:16:42	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 200 219	Yes	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x6f499c…
04-23 07:14:44	eth updown 5m 1776928200	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x968b4c…
04-19 14:03:46	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 200 219	Yes	BUY	14	8¢	$1	0x53cb68…
04-19 14:03:24	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 220 239	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x90dcae…