Warm-Carving — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

85.6%

Resolved

Trades

185

lifetime

Volume

$194

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-25

last 05-18 18:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

95% 78% $-0

Other

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (15) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	05-05 08:15
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	05-06 10:30
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	05-16 10:55
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	05-18 18:39
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	05-16 12:15
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	05-05 10:23
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Down	+$1	05-05 13:53
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	Down	+$0	05-06 10:49
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-17 21:34
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-16 19:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-28 09:15
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	Up	+$0	05-11 09:48
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-16 11:09
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-16 11:35
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	Up	+$0	05-05 10:19
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	Up	+$0	05-06 10:39
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-17 21:30
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-16 19:35
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-16 11:18
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	Up	+$0	05-05 10:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-27 09:40
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	Down	+$0	05-11 09:54
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-16 11:28
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-16 11:15
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	Up	+$0	05-06 10:13
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	Up	+$0	05-05 13:48
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	Down	+$0	05-05 08:18
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	Down	+$0	05-06 10:24
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	Down	+$0	05-05 13:39
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-16 13:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-18 18:40:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xcfdd57…
05-18 18:39:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xa7496d…
05-18 18:37:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x58d3f0…
05-18 08:46:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x03c571…
05-17 21:37:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x981cd4…
05-17 21:34:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x94b27c…
05-17 21:31:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xaf9c90…
05-17 21:30:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x9c267c…
05-17 21:28:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x2a0d96…
05-17 21:27:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xf329ad…
05-17 17:37:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x2d9d34…
05-16 19:45:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x227adc…
05-16 19:41:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x888c28…
05-16 19:35:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x237345…
05-16 19:31:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x49acc9…
05-16 13:20:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xc046de…
05-16 13:13:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x3bc845…
05-16 13:12:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xb07432…
05-16 12:15:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x8612d0…
05-16 12:12:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xcfafb9…
05-16 11:39:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x8f2a7a…
05-16 11:36:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x78ca66…
05-16 11:35:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x49c18f…
05-16 11:31:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x739043…
05-16 11:28:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xe95800…
05-16 11:27:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x9371e5…
05-16 11:18:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x0f8b96…
05-16 11:16:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xd60d9b…
05-16 11:15:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf5306e…
05-16 11:13:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x58a18f…
05-16 11:09:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xa57271…
05-16 11:07:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x4de811…
05-16 10:59:57	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf90303…
05-16 10:58:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xfc3491…
05-16 10:55:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x9a81f2…
05-16 10:53:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x8833c4…
05-11 10:51:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x5afb9c…
05-11 10:01:37	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x422f76…
05-11 09:56:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x811041…
05-11 09:54:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe7c3d9…
05-11 09:51:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x7f3ecf…
05-11 09:48:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x717110…
05-11 09:47:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x892ec9…
05-06 10:49:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x8f3a4e…
05-06 10:46:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xf61d51…
05-06 10:39:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x5a0fdf…
05-06 10:38:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xab3df9…
05-06 10:30:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xa3ccfa…
05-06 10:27:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x78b145…
05-06 10:24:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x032416…
05-06 10:24:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xd0de1c…
05-06 10:21:12	Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x44e354…
05-06 10:16:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc77f56…
05-06 10:16:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1e319b…
05-06 10:13:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xf9b9fc…
05-06 10:11:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x413335…
05-06 10:07:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xdfa189…
05-06 10:03:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xf9fbd1…
05-05 14:01:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x458dc0…
05-05 13:57:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xd856c6…
05-05 13:53:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0x7b039a…
05-05 13:52:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x790d43…
05-05 13:48:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x1476df…
05-05 13:47:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x38c8ca…
05-05 13:42:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xdbf595…
05-05 13:39:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xdc3096…
05-05 13:38:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x92693c…
05-05 10:23:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0xe84db0…
05-05 10:22:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x1dc6de…
05-05 10:19:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x7224e9…
05-05 10:16:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x0b3964…
05-05 10:13:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xbd9025…
05-05 10:07:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0xfb4b8f…
05-05 10:06:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x963e21…
05-05 10:03:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x8b10ae…
05-05 08:27:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xd114c3…
05-05 08:18:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x39ca5a…
05-05 08:16:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x912d15…
05-05 08:15:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x8a0d7d…
05-05 08:12:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xa96c04…
05-03 18:44:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x542c01…
05-03 18:16:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x22ed48…
04-30 19:46:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x1c624b…
04-30 19:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x8a0a9a…
04-30 12:38:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x0a32cd…
04-30 10:47:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xad5285…
04-30 10:42:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x6fb6a6…
04-30 10:36:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xca6ff8…
04-30 09:57:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x854cd0…
04-30 09:36:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x9a2a12…
04-30 09:33:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x62ad37…
04-30 09:23:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0x09f7f5…
04-30 09:22:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x02890f…
04-30 09:07:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x6e9d3f…
04-30 08:32:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xeb0299…
04-30 04:59:48	Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x4703a8…
04-30 04:59:40	Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x575b38…
04-30 04:59:30	Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x3e3dbf…
04-30 04:53:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xe3e9cc…
04-29 20:43:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x6a5c6b…