Costly-Toad — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$309

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

59.6%

Resolved

Trades

318

lifetime

Volume

$8.00K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-14

last 05-11 08:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 38% $-307

Politics

6% — —

Other

0% 0% $-2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 119 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	4	$928	857	857	+0	Up	+$208	05-06 17:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	2	$403	363	363	+0	Down	+$76	05-06 16:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	5	$364	371	235	+137	Down	$-36	05-06 16:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	2	$255	156	156	+0	Up	+$55	05-06 16:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	4	$235	272	172	+100	Up	+$73	05-07 18:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	2	$227	208	208	+0	Down	+$27	05-06 16:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	5	$226	925	520	+404	Up	$-6	05-11 08:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	3	$218	139	139	+0	Up	+$58	05-06 14:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	3	$213	654	104	+550	Up	$-79	05-07 09:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	3	$198	197	197	+0	Down	$-2	05-06 16:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	4	$196	175	175	+0	Down	+$56	05-06 17:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	2	$193	164	164	+0	Up	$-7	05-06 16:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	3	$186	129	129	+0	Down	+$69	05-11 08:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	3	$154	476	143	+333	Down	$-66	05-06 16:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	3	$152	267	167	+100	Down	+$50	05-06 16:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	5	$151	122	122	+0	Down	+$31	05-07 08:33
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	9	$132	122	122	+0	open	—	04-15 18:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	4	$120	92	92	+0	Down	+$62	05-11 08:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	6	$120	203	161	+42	Down	+$0	05-06 13:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	5	$116	235	103	+133	Down	$-24	05-07 18:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	3	$113	82	82	+0	Down	+$49	05-05 13:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	3	$111	159	59	+100	Up	+$7	05-07 18:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	1	$107	292	0	+292	Down	$-107	05-11 08:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	5	$103	125	75	+50	Down	+$39	05-07 08:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	2	$102	216	0	+216	Up	$-102	05-06 17:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	2	$99	194	0	+194	Down	$-99	05-06 15:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	2	$97	86	86	+0	Down	$-3	05-06 13:21
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	2	$91	55	55	+0	open	—	04-26 12:58
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$87	49	49	+0	open	—	04-22 12:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	1	$86	190	0	+190	Down	$-86	05-07 18:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-11 08:37:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	647	12¢	$76	0xe23aba…
05-11 08:34:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xe7a418…
05-11 08:33:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x35d613…
05-11 08:33:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	254	8¢	$20	0x492829…
05-11 08:32:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	SELL	520	21¢	$110	0x3b2b73…
05-11 08:31:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	520	18¢	$94	0x5c2e33…
05-11 08:26:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	292	37¢	$107	0xf42dbd…
05-11 08:24:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	37	13¢	$5	0xedffda…
05-11 08:24:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	61	16¢	$10	0x0a084f…
05-11 08:23:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	40	15¢	$6	0xdf1b86…
05-11 08:22:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x91a630…
05-11 08:21:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	40	19¢	$8	0xfec584…
05-11 08:21:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0xfa8f90…
05-11 08:21:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	19¢	$1	0x6cc7fc…
05-11 08:21:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x5cb2af…
05-11 08:21:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x5bc34e…
05-11 08:21:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	19¢	$1	0x47ad32…
05-11 08:19:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb54e73…
05-11 08:19:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xfd7acb…
05-11 08:19:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x82d4d7…
05-11 08:18:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x09101f…
05-11 08:17:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	SELL	33	62¢	$21	0xabc0e5…
05-11 08:16:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	SELL	15	46¢	$7	0x93551a…
05-11 08:16:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0xa36b24…
05-11 08:14:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x8ea392…
05-11 08:14:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x0a52f3…
05-11 08:13:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x5f6439…
05-11 08:12:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x1409f9…
05-11 08:12:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x88a435…
05-11 08:10:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	SELL	92	99¢	$91	0x0730bb…
05-11 08:09:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	35	40¢	$14	0x0740d5…
05-11 08:06:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x960162…
05-11 08:05:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xbe434d…
05-11 08:04:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	SELL	129	99¢	$128	0x94cab8…
05-11 08:04:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	25	51¢	$13	0xa58e0d…
05-11 08:01:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	103	44¢	$45	0x68f2e0…
05-11 07:58:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x1a8d45…
05-11 07:57:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	26	20¢	$5	0x783f4e…
05-11 07:56:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0xa7241c…
05-11 07:54:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x3a6c81…
05-11 07:53:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x85a5f0…
05-11 07:53:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xc95df1…
05-11 07:53:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x74d486…
05-11 07:51:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x4364b5…
05-11 07:50:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	29	32¢	$9	0xb4e9b8…
05-11 07:49:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	SELL	56	54¢	$31	0xd20d11…
05-11 07:49:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x51afdb…
05-11 07:45:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	36	27¢	$10	0x86479c…
05-10 11:21:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x17493c…
05-10 11:19:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x9d4e64…
05-07 18:41:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	190	45¢	$86	0x26522d…
05-07 18:33:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x44f200…
05-07 18:30:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x78eb42…
05-07 18:30:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0x7c45a5…
05-07 18:29:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x6410db…
05-07 18:27:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x69c664…
05-07 18:27:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x92eaec…
05-07 18:26:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	SELL	103	45¢	$46	0xc63477…
05-07 18:25:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	103	49¢	$50	0x32465d…
05-07 18:24:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x099816…
05-07 18:24:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	SELL	172	90¢	$154	0x0c0026…
05-07 18:22:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	59	51¢	$30	0x8f553f…
05-07 18:20:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	114	44¢	$50	0x037520…
05-07 18:20:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	SELL	59	99¢	$59	0x81009a…
05-07 18:19:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xccba61…
05-07 18:18:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0xd48923…
05-07 18:03:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	29	21¢	$6	0x619457…
05-07 18:02:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	SELL	22	31¢	$7	0x51accb…
05-07 18:01:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	22	27¢	$6	0x28b621…
05-07 17:56:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	SELL	16	42¢	$7	0xc46228…
05-07 17:55:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xd861e5…
05-07 13:25:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x1ff7c9…
05-07 09:09:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	550	17¢	$96	0x6bb797…
05-07 09:05:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	SELL	104	64¢	$67	0x680897…
05-07 09:05:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	104	48¢	$50	0xb0ce98…
05-07 09:03:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	175	4¢	$7	0xe0dfa2…
05-07 09:01:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	SELL	42	44¢	$18	0x8c790a…
05-07 09:01:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	42	36¢	$15	0xbaada3…
05-07 08:59:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	400	1¢	$4	0x5d6ff4…
05-07 08:56:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x8da2c6…
05-07 08:56:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x7ef3af…
05-07 08:54:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x0d9c5b…
05-07 08:53:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	SELL	138	21¢	$29	0xd53b7d…
05-07 08:53:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xf5deab…
05-07 08:52:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	49	16¢	$8	0xd475c9…
05-07 08:51:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x885d28…
05-07 08:50:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	0	44¢	$0	0x47d3cf…
05-07 08:50:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x98d843…
05-07 08:50:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	30	44¢	$13	0x7573a1…
05-07 08:49:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x1bbff7…
05-07 08:49:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xcc9708…
05-07 08:49:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xf8e3a5…
05-07 08:48:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	SELL	59	88¢	$52	0x180b5e…
05-07 08:46:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x0b4e9d…
05-07 08:45:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	43	47¢	$20	0xa8de50…
05-07 08:43:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xd3608a…
05-07 08:41:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xd93080…
05-07 08:41:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x1ae120…
05-07 08:39:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x7a977c…
05-07 08:38:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	SELL	75	95¢	$71	0x680eae…