Known-Nightingale — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

69.6%

Resolved

Trades

621

lifetime

Volume

$832

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 05-10 14:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 51% $-12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 56 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	5	$26	26	26	+0	Down	+$8	05-09 14:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	5	$23	18	17	+1	Up	+$2	05-09 13:54
btc updown 15m 1767266100	10	$18	16	16	+0	open	—	01-01 11:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	5	$18	12	10	+2	Down	+$2	05-10 14:04
btc updown 15m 1770653700	15	$14	30	14	+17	open	—	02-09 16:26
btc updown 15m 1770651900	10	$13	23	23	+0	open	—	02-09 15:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	4	$13	11	11	+0	Down	+$1	05-09 14:03
btc updown 15m 1770645600	11	$12	12	10	+3	open	—	02-09 14:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	9	$12	15	10	+6	Down	$-0	05-10 13:38
btc updown 15m 1767369600	9	$11	14	12	+2	open	—	01-02 16:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	4	$11	14	14	+0	Up	+$3	05-10 13:43
btc updown 15m 1767388500	11	$11	37	17	+20	open	—	01-02 21:23
btc updown 15m 1770704100	8	$11	14	9	+5	open	—	02-10 06:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	2	$10	14	14	+0	Up	+$0	05-09 14:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	5	$10	33	22	+11	Down	+$0	05-09 10:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	6	$10	14	14	+0	Down	+$2	05-08 21:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	5	$10	19	12	+7	Up	$-0	05-08 21:39
btc updown 15m 1767356100	6	$9	19	19	+0	open	—	01-02 12:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	3	$9	23	0	+23	Up	$-9	05-10 14:12
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	2	$9	17	17	+0	Down	+$7	05-08 21:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	3	$9	10	5	+5	Up	+$1	05-08 21:44
eth updown 15m 1767325500	7	$8	6	6	+0	open	—	01-02 03:58
btc updown 15m 1770691500	6	$7	39	5	+33	open	—	02-10 02:59
btc updown 15m 1770690600	6	$7	8	6	+2	open	—	02-10 02:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	4	$7	29	4	+24	Up	$-3	05-09 14:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	6	$7	9	9	+0	Up	+$1	05-10 13:29
xrp updown 15m 1767349800	4	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	01-02 10:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	4	$6	10	10	+0	Down	+$0	05-09 10:48
btc updown 15m 1767294000	6	$6	7	7	+0	open	—	01-01 19:06
btc updown 15m 1767264300	6	$6	6	6	+0	open	—	01-01 10:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-10 14:40:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xb970da…
05-10 14:31:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x12fc7f…
05-10 14:12:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x8602b2…
05-10 14:10:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x2391fa…
05-10 14:09:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xdf489d…
05-10 14:08:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0xa24d4f…
05-10 14:08:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xff53ad…
05-10 14:04:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x7798ed…
05-10 14:04:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0x5445f4…
05-10 14:03:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0x0bb587…
05-10 14:03:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0xe870cf…
05-10 14:01:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x60f72a…
05-10 13:57:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x1b4a38…
05-10 13:56:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xf7a8de…
05-10 13:54:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xe10ff9…
05-10 13:52:54	Solana Up or Down - May 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x302623…
05-10 13:52:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0x4bd51c…
05-10 13:51:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x98804d…
05-10 13:51:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xdac6b9…
05-10 13:51:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x41db88…
05-10 13:49:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x5ce02a…
05-10 13:43:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	6	48¢	$3	0x160683…
05-10 13:42:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x989fbd…
05-10 13:41:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	8	53¢	$4	0xb3b888…
05-10 13:41:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0xb1190e…
05-10 13:38:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x23d548…
05-10 13:37:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xaa3fbc…
05-10 13:37:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x41d7cb…
05-10 13:37:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0xa3283e…
05-10 13:36:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xc14355…
05-10 13:36:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	SELL	4	34¢	$1	0x1ee30f…
05-10 13:36:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x5f9861…
05-10 13:36:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0x42f386…
05-10 13:35:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x6c2719…
05-10 13:33:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x9a3f5e…
05-10 13:32:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x3d1728…
05-10 13:32:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	6	20¢	$1	0x80a377…
05-10 13:32:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xb755f8…
05-10 13:29:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	SELL	4	39¢	$1	0x8294b7…
05-10 13:28:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x392e1d…
05-10 13:28:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	SELL	4	33¢	$1	0x49137e…
05-10 13:27:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0xd8a377…
05-10 13:26:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xb24940…
05-10 13:26:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xd11063…
05-09 15:06:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	26	23¢	$6	0x7740f2…
05-09 15:01:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x238156…
05-09 14:58:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xb0b75c…
05-09 14:56:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x0e1c33…
05-09 14:55:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	SELL	4	48¢	$2	0xf0a7a3…
05-09 14:55:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x823623…
05-09 14:51:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x51f49f…
05-09 14:50:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x53ac67…
05-09 14:47:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	SELL	14	37¢	$5	0x2224f0…
05-09 14:46:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xb9e472…
05-09 14:44:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xc5ff2f…
05-09 14:42:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0x24c31e…
05-09 14:41:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x8f381e…
05-09 14:37:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	SELL	2	77¢	$1	0x40c8cd…
05-09 14:37:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xaac47a…
05-09 14:23:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	3	80¢	$3	0xd564e5…
05-09 14:22:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x354102…
05-09 14:12:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xdfe806…
05-09 14:09:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	21	69¢	$15	0x3d8e41…
05-09 14:07:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xf2dbfb…
05-09 14:06:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	SELL	4	63¢	$3	0x2143c7…
05-09 14:06:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x588af5…
05-09 14:06:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x14c3df…
05-09 14:03:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x04b7a3…
05-09 14:03:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xbc1fe7…
05-09 14:03:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0xfda27c…
05-09 14:01:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xd7fd9c…
05-09 14:01:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0xda8fa3…
05-09 14:00:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	SELL	9	58¢	$5	0xcab57a…
05-09 13:59:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x5bc010…
05-09 13:58:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x5a71d4…
05-09 13:56:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xaaace9…
05-09 13:54:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xb7cbe3…
05-09 13:54:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	SELL	8	74¢	$6	0xea9d9d…
05-09 13:54:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x2db64d…
05-09 13:52:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	SELL	9	62¢	$6	0xe7b553…
05-09 13:51:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xaae74f…
05-09 13:49:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x926bb6…
05-09 10:59:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x3ddccb…
05-09 10:58:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	SELL	17	18¢	$3	0x3c309c…
05-09 10:57:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x5f5794…
05-09 10:56:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0xbf557b…
05-09 10:55:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x21bb4e…
05-09 10:54:42	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x554715…
05-09 10:54:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0x8e75ab…
05-09 10:54:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x1721db…
05-09 10:49:18	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x4a1138…
05-09 10:48:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0xa7b3e6…
05-09 10:48:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xdcf9ba…
05-09 10:46:44	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x59bd98…
05-09 10:46:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x699ba4…
05-09 10:45:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xcf7b7a…
05-09 10:44:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0x8093b3…
05-09 10:43:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	SELL	3	58¢	$2	0x746bd8…
05-09 10:41:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x38f92c…
05-09 10:41:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x91e5a1…