Thick-Tog — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$6.86K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$120

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-25

last 05-24 15:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

69% 100% +$1

Politics

19% — —

Other

7% — —

Sports

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 66k on april 13	3	$385	257	129	+129	open	—	04-13 13:19
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	3	$321	216	109	+107	open	—	02-27 04:13
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8?	2	$259	130	130	+0	Yes	+$0	05-08 00:55
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	2	$256	128	128	+0	open	—	05-19 14:23
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 15th	2	$234	118	118	+0	open	—	03-15 23:47
Iran leadership change by March 13?	2	$231	117	117	+0	open	—	03-14 09:17
nhl buf tb 2026 02 28	2	$219	116	116	+0	open	—	03-01 01:35
Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$214	107	107	+0	open	—	02-28 02:12
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$213	111	111	+0	open	—	02-28 23:47
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11?	1	$130	130	0	+130	Yes	+$0	05-11 01:45
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 6?	1	$129	130	0	+130	Yes	+$0	05-05 06:27
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	1	$129	129	0	+129	open	—	04-30 14:39
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 28?	1	$129	129	0	+129	open	—	04-27 13:00
bitcoin above 70k on april 24	1	$129	129	0	+129	open	—	04-23 15:54
bitcoin above 66k on april 20	1	$129	129	0	+129	open	—	04-18 06:48
bitcoin above 66k on april 17	1	$129	129	0	+129	open	—	04-16 04:59
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$129	129	0	+129	open	—	04-14 04:49
bitcoin above 60k on april 11	1	$128	128	0	+128	open	—	04-10 03:29
bitcoin above 62k on april 8	1	$128	128	0	+128	open	—	04-07 23:51
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20?	1	$128	128	0	+128	open	—	05-19 14:55
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25?	1	$128	128	0	+128	open	—	05-24 15:46
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24?	1	$128	0	128	-128	open	—	05-23 14:41
bitcoin above 62k on april 7	1	$128	128	0	+128	open	—	04-06 07:54
bitcoin above 62k on april 1	1	$127	128	0	+128	open	—	04-01 05:00
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?	1	$127	127	0	+127	open	—	03-31 05:03
bitcoin above 60k on march 30	1	$127	127	0	+127	open	—	03-30 05:10
dota2 ty tundra 2026 03 28 game1	1	$123	127	0	+127	open	—	03-28 16:21
bitcoin above 60k on march 27	1	$123	123	0	+123	open	—	03-27 13:40
bitcoin above 66k on march 26	1	$123	123	0	+123	open	—	03-26 13:19
bitcoin above 64k on march 25	1	$123	123	0	+123	open	—	03-24 11:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-24 15:46:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25?	Yes	BUY	128	100¢	$128	0x72bbb2…
05-23 14:41:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24?	No	SELL	128	100¢	$128	0x7ecfe4…
05-19 14:55:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20?	No	BUY	128	100¢	$128	0x63c691…
05-19 14:23:38	Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	No	SELL	128	100¢	$128	0xafaa98…
05-19 13:31:19	Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	No	BUY	128	100¢	$128	0xa3ae7d…
05-11 01:45:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0xa97e4f…
05-08 00:55:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8?	Yes	SELL	130	100¢	$130	0xa592ed…
05-07 00:40:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8?	Yes	BUY	130	100¢	$129	0x918151…
05-05 06:27:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	130	100¢	$129	0x80d27d…
04-30 14:39:04	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	No	BUY	129	100¢	$129	0x4adf9a…
04-27 13:00:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 28?	Yes	BUY	129	100¢	$129	0xae4ce9…
04-23 15:54:04	bitcoin above 70k on april 24	Yes	BUY	129	100¢	$129	0xda4a67…
04-18 06:48:12	bitcoin above 66k on april 20	Yes	BUY	129	100¢	$129	0x3ca26b…
04-16 04:59:00	bitcoin above 66k on april 17	Yes	BUY	129	100¢	$129	0x65ec3e…
04-14 04:49:31	Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	129	100¢	$129	0x71282c…
04-13 13:19:59	bitcoin above 66k on april 13	Yes	BUY	129	100¢	$129	0x3b7eae…
04-13 04:26:51	bitcoin above 66k on april 13	Yes	SELL	129	100¢	$129	0x3bd32d…
04-11 23:51:59	bitcoin above 66k on april 13	Yes	BUY	129	100¢	$128	0x76df9a…
04-10 03:29:31	bitcoin above 60k on april 11	Yes	BUY	128	100¢	$128	0xaaeb5e…
04-07 23:51:43	bitcoin above 62k on april 8	Yes	BUY	128	100¢	$128	0x49afb2…
04-06 07:54:19	bitcoin above 62k on april 7	Yes	BUY	128	100¢	$128	0xd4f36e…
04-01 05:00:35	bitcoin above 62k on april 1	Yes	BUY	128	100¢	$127	0xd54229…
03-31 05:03:17	Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0xd58586…
03-30 05:10:12	bitcoin above 60k on march 30	Yes	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0x26cbca…
03-28 16:21:11	dota2 ty tundra 2026 03 28 game1	Tundra Esports	BUY	127	97¢	$123	0xb786a3…
03-27 13:40:31	bitcoin above 60k on march 27	Yes	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0xfddc49…
03-26 13:19:45	bitcoin above 66k on march 26	Yes	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x2d4b5d…
03-24 11:13:43	bitcoin above 64k on march 25	Yes	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x361ddd…
03-23 11:22:31	bitcoin above 64k on march 23	Yes	BUY	123	100¢	$122	0x2d7340…
03-21 07:23:55	bitcoin above 62k on march 22	Yes	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0x58bcdf…
03-20 18:29:25	cbb liub arz 2026 03 20	Arizona Wildcats	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0xeaa5a3…
03-20 04:19:15	cbb kenest gnzg 2026 03 19	Gonzaga Bulldogs	BUY	122	99¢	$121	0xa18b57…
03-19 01:00:41	cbb kentst illst 2026 03 18	Illinois State Redbirds	BUY	121	98¢	$118	0x6aea8f…
03-18 04:34:07	nhl tb sea 2026 03 17	Lightning	BUY	118	100¢	$118	0xe04837…
03-16 02:07:17	bitcoin above 64k on march 17	Yes	BUY	118	99¢	$118	0x582bf8…
03-15 23:47:23	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 15th	No	SELL	118	100¢	$118	0x8c86c5…
03-14 09:18:21	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 15th	No	BUY	118	99¢	$116	0x994639…
03-14 09:17:15	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	SELL	117	100¢	$116	0xfafae1…
03-12 14:13:13	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	117	98¢	$115	0x3b4d6d…
03-10 05:11:15	bitcoin above 84k on march 11	No	BUY	115	100¢	$115	0x401277…
03-09 05:28:29	ethereum above 1600 on march 9	Yes	BUY	115	100¢	$114	0xc3f9b3…
03-07 12:09:47	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 7th	No	BUY	114	100¢	$114	0xa1a002…
03-06 03:55:09	Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	114	100¢	$114	0xbd656f…
03-04 01:39:57	bitcoin above 56k on march 5	Yes	BUY	114	100¢	$114	0xccd666…
03-02 14:20:17	bitcoin above 54k on march 3	Yes	BUY	114	100¢	$114	0xd2ed24…
03-02 02:17:01	will bitcoin dip to 60k february 23 march 1	No	BUY	114	100¢	$114	0x2bdbbf…
03-01 01:35:55	nhl buf tb 2026 02 28	Sabres	SELL	116	98¢	$114	0x7ae4e6…
03-01 00:43:49	nhl buf tb 2026 02 28	Sabres	BUY	116	91¢	$105	0x5a4b13…
02-28 23:47:15	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	SELL	111	94¢	$105	0xe65777…
02-28 22:34:29	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	BUY	111	97¢	$108	0x28aad8…
02-28 03:29:23	us strikes iran by february 27 2026	No	BUY	108	100¢	$107	0x7c5212…
02-28 02:12:53	Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	107	100¢	$107	0xd672d0…
02-27 10:38:05	Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	107	100¢	$107	0x55b8b1…
02-27 04:13:48	us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	No	BUY	107	100¢	$107	0x96483a…
02-26 10:34:02	us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	No	SELL	109	98¢	$107	0xb1b51f…
02-26 04:35:54	us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	No	BUY	109	98¢	$107	0xfacd90…
02-25 12:29:28	us strikes iran by february 25 2026	No	BUY	107	99¢	$106	0x711fb9…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Embarrassed-Minor 0xb439…2410	45	$6.65K	56	05-24 15:47
Ecstatic-Hand 0x7d28…3952	45	$6.59K	55	05-24 15:46
Fluid-Sentencing 0xe089…acdc	44	$6.39K	54	05-24 15:46
Appropriate-Loaf 0x7a59…5bc6	44	$6.34K	59	05-24 15:46
Unripe-Chow 0x1f07…a7c6	43	$6.40K	53	05-24 15:46
Unhealthy-Celebrity 0x9bdf…11f2	43	$6.16K	52	05-24 15:46
Stale-Exterior 0xc9fd…92f9	43	$6.15K	53	05-24 15:46
Necessary-Synod 0x4757…d752	42	$6.08K	51	05-24 15:45