Firm-Valance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$24

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

69.2%

Resolved

149

Trades

399

lifetime

Volume

$692

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-11

last 07-15 21:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

73% 59% +$24

Other

27% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 196 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes		+77	$1	1¢	$1	$-0	07-15 21:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
hok dyg rngm 2026 01 22	2	$53	30	30	+0	open	—	01-22 12:24
hok dyg wol 2026 01 14 game1	3	$41	21	21	+0	open	—	01-14 10:30
hok rw wol 2026 01 23 game2	1	$29	31	0	+31	open	—	01-23 13:13
hok esp ksg 2026 01 31	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	01-30 18:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	3	$18	30	0	+30	Up	+$12	05-06 05:46
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	3	$15	14	14	+0	Down	+$3	05-05 14:37
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	8	$14	13	13	+0	Down	+$2	05-05 15:16
hok wb agsp 2026 01 14	1	$12	12	0	+12	open	—	01-14 15:14
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	4	$11	9	9	+0	Up	+$5	05-05 19:18
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	4	$9	11	11	+0	Up	+$3	05-05 13:58
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	6	$9	8	8	+0	Down	+$1	05-05 15:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	4	$8	6	6	+0	Down	+$2	05-06 20:23
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	8	$8	30	5	+24	Down	$-2	05-05 15:52
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	3	$8	17	0	+17	Down	$-8	05-05 16:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	4	$7	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	05-06 19:41
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	3	$7	5	5	+0	Up	+$3	05-05 16:05
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	2	$7	14	0	+14	Up	+$7	05-06 06:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	3	$7	15	0	+15	Up	+$8	05-06 19:15
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	7	$7	69	0	+69	Down	$-7	05-05 16:38
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	4	$7	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	05-05 15:46
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	4	$7	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	05-05 19:47
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	6	$7	8	8	+0	Up	+$1	05-05 14:04
hok qingji dyg 2026 02 11	1	$7	16	0	+16	open	—	02-08 15:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	2	$7	7	7	+0	Down	+$5	05-06 19:24
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	5	$7	5	5	+0	Up	+$1	05-05 15:37
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	4	$6	6	6	+0	Down	+$0	05-05 15:56
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	5	$6	6	6	+0	Up	+$0	05-05 15:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	3	$6	6	6	+0	Down	+$2	05-05 18:59
hok wb tcgrou 2026 01 24	1	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	01-24 09:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	6	$6	22	0	+22	Down	$-6	05-06 19:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-15 21:22:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0x5662e9…
05-07 18:40:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x36fc50…
05-07 18:40:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xf65f47…
05-07 18:38:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xe7a296…
05-07 18:38:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x66ced2…
05-07 18:34:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x2c39c2…
05-07 18:34:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x543883…
05-07 18:34:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1fa326…
05-07 18:32:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x874c20…
05-07 18:32:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x11e3fe…
05-07 18:31:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xf4e7c2…
05-07 06:39:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xa74138…
05-07 06:39:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xcfe23f…
05-07 06:39:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x97c44d…
05-07 06:38:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x45b92f…
05-07 06:37:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xce0354…
05-06 20:33:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0xece580…
05-06 20:33:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x4a05aa…
05-06 20:33:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x5e03be…
05-06 20:30:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x34515e…
05-06 20:29:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x0edeeb…
05-06 20:26:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xb38174…
05-06 20:23:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0x03a416…
05-06 20:20:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x6bcb0a…
05-06 20:20:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x58a07d…
05-06 20:20:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xe9b0de…
05-06 20:15:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x3f4188…
05-06 20:15:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xfa0415…
05-06 20:14:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xc3aad6…
05-06 20:14:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x69ed1d…
05-06 20:14:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x6085b2…
05-06 20:13:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x52a503…
05-06 20:13:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xe27faf…
05-06 20:06:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x62a671…
05-06 20:00:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xd3ec55…
05-06 19:56:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x6f3702…
05-06 19:56:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x248164…
05-06 19:55:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x5d9366…
05-06 19:52:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0xed44a8…
05-06 19:51:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x9a53bf…
05-06 19:51:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x4876bc…
05-06 19:50:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xda35be…
05-06 19:49:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0x0bc7e7…
05-06 19:49:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x3cc1a8…
05-06 19:48:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0x9abed0…
05-06 19:48:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x0f78ce…
05-06 19:42:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x839ba3…
05-06 19:41:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	SELL	6	69¢	$4	0x038120…
05-06 19:39:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x23ed28…
05-06 19:38:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xf39b4d…
05-06 19:38:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xd44d51…
05-06 19:36:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0xe7a3ff…
05-06 19:31:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xab36ba…
05-06 19:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0xe76b0e…
05-06 19:30:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x0a3671…
05-06 19:25:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x8f5100…
05-06 19:24:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x88e508…
05-06 19:24:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	SELL	7	78¢	$6	0xd81647…
05-06 19:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x408319…
05-06 19:15:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xc34a08…
05-06 19:13:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x50cc85…
05-06 19:12:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x08d1ad…
05-06 19:12:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x5b7a4a…
05-06 19:09:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xa0f3df…
05-06 19:09:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x81f7dd…
05-06 19:09:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x0c743c…
05-06 19:09:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xc1e72b…
05-06 19:09:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x12c9bb…
05-06 19:08:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x88e529…
05-06 19:08:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xac1ab0…
05-06 19:05:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xee952e…
05-06 19:05:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x835027…
05-06 19:00:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x65c6f6…
05-06 18:53:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xbe024f…
05-06 18:53:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xac2112…
05-06 18:53:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x8efc81…
05-06 18:53:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x1c8757…
05-06 18:48:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x57cb1a…
05-06 18:47:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x271ce7…
05-06 18:43:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x0263f6…
05-06 18:35:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x2ed7f0…
05-06 18:33:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x496866…
05-06 18:32:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	SELL	3	45¢	$1	0xf235dc…
05-06 18:32:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xeceb02…
05-06 18:26:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	78¢	$2	0xcd6564…
05-06 18:25:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xd50a4b…
05-06 18:18:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x9ac2be…
05-06 18:18:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x2cbda8…
05-06 18:16:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x8b2aa5…
05-06 18:08:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x33dfad…
05-06 17:52:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	SELL	3	40¢	$1	0x75ba7f…
05-06 17:52:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xda85df…
05-06 17:44:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x5b5102…
05-06 17:42:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xa32921…
05-06 17:18:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x0a4033…
05-06 16:56:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0x37155e…
05-06 16:55:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xf36176…
05-06 16:55:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	SELL	3	84¢	$2	0xb0ad12…
05-06 16:51:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xa34333…
05-06 16:44:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xc32fdd…