Original-Toll — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.11K

Unrealized P&L

-$171

Hit rate

12.4%

Resolved

Trades

107

lifetime

Volume

$5.47K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$51

Open exposure

$53

3 positions

First seen

2026-02-19

last 10-20 17:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Other

92% 29% -$2,577

Politics

6% 67% +$448

Crypto

2% 43% +$21

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	+280	$100	18¢	$52	-$48	04-29 02:39
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+765	$10	0¢	$2	-$8	04-29 02:41
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	+14	$114	2¢	$0	-$114	10-20 17:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will usa win the 2026 world baseball classic	10	$2.0K	2,890	0	+2,890	No	-$1,994	03-17 19:40
Alofoke forms party in DR by June 30, 2027?	11	$800	1,279	20	+1,259	open	—	10-13 11:26
wbc ven dor 2026 03 11	3	$620	1,333	0	+1,333	Dominican Rep.	-$104	03-12 00:32
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	19	$409	604	590	+14	open	—	10-20 17:00
will dominican republic win the 2026 world baseball classic	14	$265	1,003	0	+1,003	No	-$265	03-12 01:35
will the us next strike iran before march 2026 et	1	$200	691	0	+691	Yes	+$492	02-19 22:33
wbc dor usa 2026 03 15	8	$194	418	0	+418	USA	-$194	03-16 01:18
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	2	$176	429	429	+0	open	—	05-20 00:55
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$101	410	410	+0	No	-$63	03-30 17:02
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	1	$100	280	0	+280	open	—	04-29 02:39
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	1	$98	0	102	-102	No	-$4	06-20 01:34
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	1	$86	100	0	+100	No	-$86	07-02 23:29
will venezuela win the 2026 world baseball classic	2	$81	200	200	+0	Yes	+$21	03-17 02:52
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	1	$59	100	0	+100	Yes	+$41	07-02 23:19
wbc dor sok 2026 03 13	2	$51	220	0	+220	Dominican Rep.	-$51	03-13 22:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	3	$38	42	42	+0	Up	+$18	05-20 01:09
wbc jap ven 2026 03 14	3	$34	88	0	+88	Venezuela	+$53	03-13 19:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	2	$31	26	26	+0	Down	+$21	06-02 01:09
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	2	$26	2,695	2,695	+0	open	—	05-20 00:55
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$19	38	0	+38	Yes	+$19	04-01 15:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	2	$15	13	13	+0	Down	+$5	06-02 01:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	3	$13	51	51	+0	Up	-$7	05-22 23:38
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	2	$12	20	20	+0	open	—	10-12 03:54
wbc ita ven 2026 03 16	1	$10	23	0	+23	Venezuela	+$13	03-17 01:21
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	1	$10	765	0	+765	open	—	04-29 02:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	2	$5	16	0	+16	Up	-$5	05-22 00:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	1	$5	125	0	+125	Down	-$5	06-03 00:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	1	$5	21	0	+21	Up	-$5	06-03 00:15
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 440 459	1	$5	216	0	+216	No	-$5	03-11 15:39
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$1	350	0	+350	Yes	-$1	03-18 15:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 17:00:35	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x38c3a3…
10-13 11:26:32	Alofoke forms party in DR by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0xe15f40…
10-12 03:54:41	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x037170…
10-06 17:29:45	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	SELL	9	25¢	$2	0x398c17…
10-06 07:06:18	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	SELL	18	25¢	$5	0x4ddea0…
10-06 04:21:58	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	SELL	61	25¢	$15	0x561f3d…
10-06 04:00:18	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	SELL	4	25¢	$1	0x143810…
10-06 02:41:22	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	SELL	200	25¢	$50	0x14490f…
10-06 02:16:05	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	SELL	40	25¢	$10	0x0a5940…
10-05 16:53:13	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	SELL	257	25¢	$64	0xb6b559…
08-28 02:58:51	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	BUY	128	40¢	$51	0x890900…
08-25 03:48:09	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	BUY	83	40¢	$33	0x74dcd6…
08-24 18:42:36	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xc2ccc9…
08-24 13:49:39	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	BUY	42	40¢	$17	0xa887f7…
08-24 13:28:12	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	BUY	37	39¢	$15	0x4f9414…
08-24 13:26:55	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	BUY	36	39¢	$14	0xb92763…
08-22 03:05:36	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x4591d7…
08-20 17:32:28	alofoke forms party in dr by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	300	57¢	$171	0xddd652…
08-16 15:12:28	alofoke forms party in dr by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x9e7f5d…
08-16 15:12:22	alofoke forms party in dr by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x15a955…
08-16 14:35:45	alofoke forms party in dr by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x2c6768…
08-16 14:00:19	alofoke forms party in dr by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	1	45¢	$1	0xa29367…
08-16 10:26:21	alofoke forms party in dr by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	10	45¢	$5	0x3d356b…
08-15 16:33:10	alofoke forms party in dr by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0xbf7a7c…
08-14 00:20:07	alofoke forms party in dr by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	534	56¢	$300	0x3f949d…
08-06 20:25:12	alofoke forms party in dr by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x1036e3…
08-06 20:24:24	alofoke forms party in dr by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	223	90¢	$200	0x1c251f…
07-02 23:29:26	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x462e9d…
07-02 23:19:16	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0xff9ca2…
07-02 13:43:41	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x260949…
06-20 01:36:44	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0xb858be…
06-20 01:34:19	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	102	96¢	$98	0x02fef2…
06-20 01:30:55	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xe452a5…
06-03 00:23:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x4fb5a6…
06-03 00:15:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x2c1af0…
06-02 01:09:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0xb22e81…
06-02 01:06:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x20a1a0…
06-02 01:04:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	SELL	13	80¢	$10	0x381972…
06-02 01:01:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xd55bf4…
05-26 10:36:38	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	BUY	62	45¢	$28	0x45be71…
05-22 23:38:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	SELL	51	6¢	$3	0xef4654…
05-22 23:37:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xd71a69…
05-22 23:36:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x5b3c98…
05-22 19:17:43	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	BUY	48	45¢	$21	0x5a09cf…
05-22 00:40:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xcd1db2…
05-22 00:40:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	13	34¢	$4	0x0415f7…
05-20 01:09:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	SELL	42	65¢	$28	0xe4c666…
05-20 01:06:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x23ec9b…
05-20 01:05:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x122420…
05-20 00:55:30	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	429	20¢	$86	0xee6bf0…
05-20 00:55:15	Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,695	1¢	$16	0xcf2c01…
04-29 02:41:54	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	429	21¢	$90	0xcd76be…
04-29 02:41:34	Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	765	1¢	$10	0x6c5389…
04-29 02:40:28	Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,695	0¢	$10	0xc5e441…
04-29 02:39:30	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	280	36¢	$100	0x6dcb5a…
04-01 15:13:43	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	38	50¢	$19	0x06c8a1…
03-30 17:02:49	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	410	5¢	$19	0x7632f6…
03-25 00:12:01	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	110	17¢	$19	0x7616dd…
03-24 16:14:13	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0x833bb4…
03-24 14:39:21	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	200	21¢	$42	0x088db6…
03-18 15:50:49	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	350	0¢	$1	0x1429f8…
03-18 15:50:15	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xda57b0…
03-17 19:40:29	will usa win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	22	69¢	$15	0xca87a1…
03-17 19:40:29	will usa win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	614	69¢	$424	0xb94a9e…
03-17 19:40:29	will usa win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	1,000	69¢	$690	0x963f58…
03-17 19:40:29	will usa win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	41	69¢	$28	0x25d089…
03-17 19:39:43	will usa win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	283	69¢	$196	0x4f7fda…
03-17 19:27:13	will usa win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	27	69¢	$18	0x54aba8…
03-17 19:24:33	will usa win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	173	69¢	$119	0xfa5be2…
03-17 19:24:33	will usa win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0xed286d…
03-17 19:24:33	will usa win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	603	69¢	$416	0xbdf6eb…
03-17 19:24:33	will usa win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	26	69¢	$18	0x469c19…
03-17 02:52:33	will venezuela win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	SELL	200	26¢	$51	0x404b0e…
03-17 01:21:39	wbc ita ven 2026 03 16	Venezuela	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x95eca9…
03-16 02:37:31	will venezuela win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0xc0b69f…
03-16 01:18:33	wbc dor usa 2026 03 15	Dominican Rep.	BUY	18	30¢	$5	0x5fd336…
03-16 01:18:19	wbc dor usa 2026 03 15	Dominican Rep.	BUY	18	29¢	$5	0xc0d59a…
03-16 01:17:23	wbc dor usa 2026 03 15	Dominican Rep.	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xce1e8c…
03-16 01:09:51	wbc dor usa 2026 03 15	Dominican Rep.	BUY	30	42¢	$13	0xfbcb14…
03-16 00:50:49	wbc dor usa 2026 03 15	Dominican Rep.	BUY	40	53¢	$21	0x02e450…
03-16 00:49:39	wbc dor usa 2026 03 15	Dominican Rep.	BUY	95	53¢	$50	0x72b737…
03-16 00:47:11	wbc dor usa 2026 03 15	Dominican Rep.	BUY	91	44¢	$40	0xf33573…
03-16 00:38:09	wbc dor usa 2026 03 15	Dominican Rep.	BUY	93	54¢	$50	0xde9144…
03-13 22:56:17	wbc dor sok 2026 03 13	South Korea	BUY	120	12¢	$14	0x561b3f…
03-13 19:45:47	wbc jap ven 2026 03 14	Venezuela	BUY	64	39¢	$25	0xe8ecaf…
03-13 16:56:49	wbc jap ven 2026 03 14	Venezuela	BUY	11	38¢	$4	0x419aed…
03-13 04:54:45	wbc jap ven 2026 03 14	Venezuela	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x8bada4…
03-12 14:35:21	wbc dor sok 2026 03 13	South Korea	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0xb2e621…
03-12 01:35:43	will dominican republic win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	154	25¢	$39	0xb5daec…
03-12 01:28:11	will dominican republic win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	171	25¢	$43	0x97a97d…
03-12 01:24:09	will dominican republic win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x23e469…
03-12 01:24:07	will dominican republic win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0xea36f3…
03-12 01:23:07	will dominican republic win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xc5c9c7…
03-12 01:21:07	will dominican republic win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x6a8b6d…
03-12 01:20:21	will dominican republic win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	267	25¢	$67	0x3ecc36…
03-12 01:19:43	will dominican republic win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xeb7dfd…
03-12 01:19:43	will dominican republic win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xd656e8…
03-12 01:19:43	will dominican republic win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0xcaaf57…
03-12 01:16:59	will dominican republic win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xb6bb4c…
03-12 01:16:57	will dominican republic win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	44	25¢	$11	0x7ec723…