Pessimistic-Distance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

200

lifetime

Volume

$21.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$106

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-22

last 06-18 23:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

82% 100% +$3

Other

11% — —

Sports

4% — —

Politics

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 90k on january 30	2	$1.1K	569	569	+0	open	—	01-30 15:20
bitcoin above 92k on january 29	2	$1.1K	568	568	+0	open	—	01-29 16:23
Golden State Valkyries vs. New York Liberty: O/U 168.5	2	$1.0K	1,058	0	+1,058	open	—	05-22 02:04
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5	7	$947	958	0	+958	open	—	05-23 01:48
bitcoin above 88k on january 31	1	$588	592	0	+592	open	—	01-31 03:33
eth updown 15m 1769828400	1	$571	588	0	+588	open	—	01-31 03:15
eth updown 15m 1769825700	1	$570	571	0	+571	open	—	01-31 02:29
bitcoin above 88k on january 30	2	$568	570	0	+570	open	—	01-30 15:22
bitcoin above 80k on january 29	1	$567	568	0	+568	open	—	01-29 16:23
bitcoin above 92k on january 28	1	$555	566	0	+566	open	—	01-28 09:52
will the price of bitcoin be between 92000 94000 on january 27	1	$550	554	0	+554	open	—	01-27 02:45
bitcoin above 92k on january 26	1	$548	550	0	+550	open	—	01-26 05:21
bitcoin above 86k on january 25	3	$542	548	0	+548	open	—	01-25 06:47
bitcoin above 86k on january 24	1	$540	542	0	+542	open	—	01-24 03:33
bitcoin above 86k on january 23	1	$536	540	0	+540	open	—	01-23 08:45
bitcoin above 86k on january 22	1	$534	537	0	+537	open	—	01-22 14:20
Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-2.5)	1	$523	524	0	+524	open	—	05-23 11:55
Ethereum above 1,995 on May 22, 5PM ET?	2	$500	250	250	+0	open	—	05-23 01:26
bitcoin above 75600 on may 22 2026 12am et	3	$454	455	0	+455	open	—	05-22 03:45
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	3	$345	232	116	+116	open	—	04-23 00:53
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 2.5	2	$323	324	0	+324	open	—	05-23 10:25
Will Solana dip to $80 on May 23?	4	$258	259	0	+259	open	—	05-24 04:00
Will XRP dip to $1.30 on May 23?	2	$250	250	0	+250	open	—	05-24 03:40
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$224	112	112	+0	Yes	+$0	04-14 16:13
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$215	109	109	+0	open	—	03-29 14:23
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	2	$209	106	106	+0	open	—	02-10 14:10
ethereum above 2075 on may 22 2026 12am et	1	$204	204	0	+204	open	—	05-22 03:45
ethereum above 2090 on may 22 2026 12am et	1	$204	204	0	+204	open	—	05-22 03:45
bitcoin above 76000 on may 22 2026 12am et	2	$197	197	0	+197	open	—	05-22 03:46
Will XRP reach $1.40 on May 23?	2	$190	190	0	+190	open	—	05-24 03:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-18 23:03:31	fifwc can qat 2026 06 18 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x506af1…
05-24 11:51:06	Spread: FK Rukh Lviv (-2.5)	FK Polissia	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x1142f0…
05-24 11:41:53	ukr1 pol ruk 2026 05 24 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x50ab32…
05-24 11:34:35	FK Dynamo Kyiv vs. FK Kudrivka: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x10e7ea…
05-24 11:31:42	Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x5b0fcb…
05-24 11:21:03	Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x256275…
05-24 11:11:03	Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	161	100¢	$161	0xf13c5f…
05-24 04:54:30	Bitcoin above 77,600 on May 24, 1AM ET?	No	BUY	132	100¢	$132	0xecb697…
05-24 04:53:55	Ethereum above 2,090 on May 24, 1AM ET?	Yes	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xd28fd2…
05-24 04:53:52	Ethereum above 2,090 on May 24, 1AM ET?	Yes	BUY	164	100¢	$164	0x781227…
05-24 04:52:40	Bitcoin above 78,000 on May 24, 1AM ET?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x98bcc9…
05-24 04:52:33	Bitcoin above 75,600 on May 24, 1AM ET?	Yes	BUY	83	100¢	$83	0x5a4239…
05-24 04:00:54	Will Solana dip to $80 on May 23?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xe496d4…
05-24 03:42:35	Will Solana dip to $80 on May 23?	No	BUY	239	100¢	$239	0xd32a01…
05-24 03:41:34	Will Solana dip to $80 on May 23?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0573d8…
05-24 03:41:11	Will Solana dip to $80 on May 23?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x0a334f…
05-24 03:40:46	Will XRP dip to $1.30 on May 23?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc394ce…
05-24 03:40:41	Will XRP dip to $1.30 on May 23?	No	BUY	249	100¢	$249	0x2354fa…
05-24 03:40:22	Will XRP reach $1.40 on May 23?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x62c70a…
05-24 03:40:13	Will XRP reach $1.40 on May 23?	No	BUY	189	100¢	$189	0x6c9f9f…
05-23 11:55:20	Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-2.5)	V-Varen Nagasaki	BUY	524	100¢	$523	0x2b2153…
05-23 10:25:21	Kashima Antlers vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	304	100¢	$303	0x7d5dd6…
05-23 10:24:52	Kashima Antlers vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x44fa33…
05-23 01:49:26	Golden State Valkyries vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 166.5	Over	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xa453e0…
05-23 01:48:09	Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5	Over	BUY	562	99¢	$557	0xbba89e…
05-23 01:47:11	Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5	Over	BUY	48	99¢	$48	0x9be800…
05-23 01:46:20	Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5	Over	BUY	62	99¢	$61	0x587aa4…
05-23 01:45:33	Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5	Over	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x18fcbb…
05-23 01:43:44	Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5	Over	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x2dd281…
05-23 01:40:42	Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5	Over	BUY	160	99¢	$158	0x27db0a…
05-23 01:40:27	Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5	Over	BUY	118	98¢	$115	0xa491d6…
05-23 01:27:05	Dallas Wings vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 173.5	Under	BUY	108	99¢	$107	0x6239d2…
05-23 01:26:28	ethereum above 2130 on may 22 2026 5pm et	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xe69f5e…
05-23 01:26:09	Ethereum above 1,995 on May 22, 5PM ET?	Yes	SELL	250	100¢	$250	0x681d60…
05-23 01:25:41	Ethereum above 2,080 on May 22, 9AM ET?	Yes	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0x0ec003…
05-22 20:47:12	Ethereum above 1,995 on May 22, 5PM ET?	Yes	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0x59cdbb…
05-22 20:37:57	ethereum above 2130 on may 22 2026 5pm et	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb4393a…
05-22 12:47:58	Ethereum above 2,080 on May 22, 9AM ET?	Yes	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0xa2707b…
05-22 03:46:08	bitcoin above 76000 on may 22 2026 12am et	Yes	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0xe79daa…
05-22 03:45:52	bitcoin above 75600 on may 22 2026 12am et	Yes	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x71b450…
05-22 03:45:31	ethereum above 2090 on may 22 2026 12am et	Yes	BUY	204	100¢	$204	0xb460cb…
05-22 03:45:23	ethereum above 2075 on may 22 2026 12am et	Yes	BUY	204	100¢	$204	0xe7c34c…
05-22 03:45:09	bitcoin above 76000 on may 22 2026 12am et	Yes	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xad5c33…
05-22 03:45:03	bitcoin above 75600 on may 22 2026 12am et	Yes	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0x4ad0d4…
05-22 03:44:58	bitcoin above 75600 on may 22 2026 12am et	Yes	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x6b7a6d…
05-22 02:04:36	Golden State Valkyries vs. New York Liberty: O/U 168.5	Under	BUY	1,037	99¢	$1,027	0x10f0d4…
05-22 01:52:07	Golden State Valkyries vs. New York Liberty: O/U 168.5	Under	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x8cee1b…
05-13 11:33:47	Will XRP reach $1.70 on May 13?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x236a06…
05-06 13:52:20	Bitcoin above 80,400 on May 6, 10AM ET?	Yes	BUY	88	100¢	$88	0x147ba6…
05-06 13:50:30	Ethereum above 2,425 on May 6, 10AM ET?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x77a371…
04-23 00:53:40	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	116	99¢	$115	0xa5f60f…
04-22 07:39:30	USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	115	100¢	$115	0x84dbbf…
04-22 07:38:36	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	116	99¢	$115	0xdc8ec8…
04-21 01:52:30	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	116	99¢	$115	0xd7e802…
04-18 03:11:38	will xrp dip to 1pt4 on april 17	No	BUY	115	100¢	$115	0xf8fa6f…
04-16 05:57:02	Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	115	98¢	$113	0x1374db…
04-14 16:13:23	Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	113	99¢	$112	0x369207…
04-14 16:13:05	Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	112	100¢	$112	0x9dd4f4…
04-14 02:23:37	Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	112	100¢	$112	0xc6bf28…
04-13 15:02:45	will the price of solana be between 70 80 on april 13	No	BUY	112	100¢	$112	0xff2ed3…
04-12 14:52:17	will ethereum reach 2600 april 6 12	No	BUY	112	100¢	$112	0x9536a4…
04-12 03:51:15	will bitcoin dip to 71k on april 11	No	BUY	102	99¢	$101	0xd82c07…
04-12 02:27:13	will solana reach 105 on april 11	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x557230…
04-10 15:44:13	bitcoin above 74k on april 10	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0xecfd98…
04-08 15:02:31	will the price of ethereum be between 2300 2400 on april 8	No	BUY	111	100¢	$110	0x76fec5…
04-07 14:28:29	ethereum above 1800 on april 7	Yes	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x783c2f…
04-06 01:51:49	will ethereum reach 2400 march 30 april 5	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0xcc8eed…
04-01 12:51:45	EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0xafbb0f…
03-30 12:37:38	will xrp dip to 1 in march 2026	No	BUY	109	100¢	$109	0x3f651e…
03-29 14:24:40	will bitcoin dip to 60k march 23 29	No	BUY	109	100¢	$109	0x0ef319…
03-29 14:23:22	will trump visit china by march 31	No	SELL	109	100¢	$109	0xcd5be9…
03-18 01:53:31	will trump visit china by march 31	No	BUY	109	97¢	$106	0x51f3be…
03-17 13:21:21	will the price of ethereum be greater than 2500 on march 17	No	BUY	106	100¢	$106	0xb12f06…
03-16 16:00:39	will bitcoin reach 80k on march 16	No	BUY	106	100¢	$105	0x7996f3…
03-15 10:42:55	will solana reach 105 on march 15	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0xbf7a53…
03-13 00:49:43	will the price of bitcoin be less than 60000 on march 13	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x3ebe14…
03-12 15:40:37	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on march 12	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x2f8939…
03-11 15:03:13	will bitcoin dip to 62k on march 11	No	BUY	105	99¢	$104	0x9a4eb3…
03-11 14:23:55	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 11	Yes	BUY	691	0¢	$1	0x3277be…
03-11 13:41:53	will the price of ethereum be between 1700 1800 on march 11	Yes	SELL	710	0¢	$1	0x14d4bf…
03-11 12:32:19	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 11	Yes	BUY	327	0¢	$1	0x2015a7…
03-11 12:09:53	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 11	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xfa1c7a…
03-11 12:07:03	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 11	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xa3f3c7…
03-11 12:03:25	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 11	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x77648c…
03-11 12:02:43	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 11	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0x6f1d64…
03-11 11:51:05	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 11	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x2b7e0b…
03-11 11:47:25	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 11	Yes	BUY	21	0¢	$0	0x58311b…
03-11 11:39:37	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 11	Yes	BUY	45	0¢	$0	0x6e4bfa…
03-11 11:36:05	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 11	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x2b6813…
03-11 11:20:55	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 11	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x2bc2e1…
03-11 11:05:55	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 11	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x2c58d9…
03-11 11:00:59	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 11	Yes	BUY	301	0¢	$1	0xe4b2f3…
03-11 10:59:35	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 11	Yes	BUY	242	0¢	$0	0x2fc248…
03-11 10:51:35	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 11	Yes	BUY	46	0¢	$0	0x6e15fa…
03-11 10:51:21	bitcoin above 74k on march 11	Yes	BUY	383	0¢	$1	0x4c7351…
03-11 10:43:33	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 11	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x00b33a…
03-11 10:35:39	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 11	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x6debb2…
03-11 09:01:45	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 11	Yes	BUY	156	0¢	$0	0xcd9897…
03-11 08:59:21	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 11	Yes	BUY	251	0¢	$1	0xfea918…
03-11 08:50:31	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 11	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x573978…