Grim-Thesis-Kingdom — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$150

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

80.3%

Resolved

Trades

196

lifetime

Volume

$2.27K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-26

last 05-18 15:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

77% 70% +$150

Other

16% — —

Politics

7% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 76 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	2	$191	140	140	+0	Up	+$51	05-05 05:38
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	3	$187	104	104	+0	open	—	05-14 21:01
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	6	$173	677	70	+607	open	—	05-18 15:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$164	101	101	+0	open	—	05-08 15:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	2	$136	113	113	+0	Down	+$16	05-08 15:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	5	$121	121	97	+24	Down	+$1	05-08 15:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	13	$113	138	138	+0	Up	+$3	05-05 02:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	2	$104	95	95	+0	Up	$-3	05-05 05:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	2	$77	52	52	+0	Up	+$27	05-05 03:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	7	$66	70	70	+0	Down	$-23	05-05 03:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	6	$58	51	51	+0	Up	+$6	05-08 14:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	2	$50	88	0	+88	Up	+$38	05-05 03:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	3	$49	48	48	+0	Up	+$9	05-08 14:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	3	$46	49	49	+0	Down	+$6	05-08 14:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	3	$43	41	41	+0	Down	+$3	05-08 14:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	2	$42	82	0	+82	open	—	04-26 13:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	2	$35	91	0	+91	open	—	04-26 13:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	4	$35	27	27	+0	Up	+$5	05-05 12:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	3	$34	29	19	+10	Down	+$4	05-05 05:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	6	$32	30	28	+1	Up	+$8	05-14 05:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	2	$30	56	0	+56	Down	$-30	05-05 02:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	8	$29	339	39	+300	Up	$-3	05-14 06:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	5	$27	30	17	+13	Up	+$6	05-08 14:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	8	$26	23	23	+0	open	—	05-14 23:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	3	$25	30	14	+16	Down	$-15	05-08 15:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	3	$24	40	40	+0	Up	+$4	05-14 04:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	3	$24	19	19	+0	Up	+$4	05-14 04:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	3	$23	12	12	+0	Up	+$1	05-05 11:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	2	$22	20	20	+0	Down	+$2	05-05 12:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	2	$21	19	19	+0	Down	+$1	05-05 05:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-18 15:34:05	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	BUY	165	9¢	$15	0xb8039c…
05-18 11:46:39	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	BUY	33	10¢	$3	0xe8e775…
05-18 11:46:14	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x07a3f1…
05-17 03:08:59	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	BUY	98	33¢	$33	0x5edf33…
05-15 05:35:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xa64f31…
05-15 00:15:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x6d0ce8…
05-15 00:15:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0xe12c87…
05-15 00:15:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0xdbddf8…
05-15 00:13:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	SELL	21	4¢	$1	0x3bf58d…
05-15 00:11:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0xe48ffb…
05-15 00:11:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x23fb62…
05-15 00:11:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x2b04d7…
05-15 00:05:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xc574f4…
05-15 00:05:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xd19660…
05-15 00:01:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	SELL	14	45¢	$6	0xba1f0c…
05-15 00:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xcc3c9f…
05-15 00:00:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xe47288…
05-15 00:00:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xbcfa31…
05-14 23:58:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	SELL	11	57¢	$6	0xe73d42…
05-14 23:58:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xac61a7…
05-14 23:58:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xffd944…
05-14 23:58:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x16eba8…
05-14 23:56:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	12	63¢	$7	0x612f88…
05-14 23:55:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xedda73…
05-14 23:55:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x053c95…
05-14 23:55:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x40c96c…
05-14 23:51:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	SELL	18	55¢	$10	0x538259…
05-14 23:50:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x8a23bf…
05-14 23:50:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x133ac0…
05-14 23:50:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x22d014…
05-14 23:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x080656…
05-14 23:48:27	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	SELL	70	27¢	$19	0x609822…
05-14 21:01:50	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	BUY	282	33¢	$94	0x2ccf8b…
05-14 21:01:15	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	SELL	104	93¢	$97	0x5893e7…
05-14 06:12:48	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0x8b3ec4…
05-14 06:06:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0x219fa8…
05-14 06:06:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0xbf59ab…
05-14 06:06:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x624566…
05-14 06:04:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0x07480f…
05-14 06:04:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0xf6d1e2…
05-14 06:03:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x25afb0…
05-14 06:02:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	SELL	33	40¢	$13	0xeb2de9…
05-14 06:00:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x68ff61…
05-14 06:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x411b7d…
05-14 06:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x2e24d8…
05-14 06:00:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x32b26f…
05-14 05:54:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	SELL	13	2¢	$0	0x6c36c1…
05-14 05:51:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x5a8b4a…
05-14 05:50:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x161b8b…
05-14 05:48:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	SELL	33	1¢	$0	0x472301…
05-14 05:47:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x3f78a6…
05-14 05:44:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x48afca…
05-14 05:43:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	SELL	28	68¢	$19	0x94c8b2…
05-14 05:40:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x5958f9…
05-14 05:40:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0xdc84b7…
05-14 05:40:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x9e3169…
05-14 05:40:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x1238fa…
05-14 05:38:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	SELL	24	12¢	$3	0x0de735…
05-14 05:36:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x997239…
05-14 05:35:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xddda79…
05-14 05:35:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xdeba2a…
05-14 05:31:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0xd83774…
05-14 05:29:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	SELL	3	80¢	$2	0x650aa6…
05-14 05:28:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x2fbc51…
05-14 05:16:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	SELL	7	56¢	$4	0x72c404…
05-14 05:16:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0xf164c0…
05-14 05:16:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	SELL	8	47¢	$4	0x982f9e…
05-14 05:16:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xd56581…
05-14 05:15:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x7bb0dd…
05-14 05:14:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x5f81cf…
05-14 05:09:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x2c9eab…
05-14 05:07:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	SELL	19	34¢	$6	0x978c75…
05-14 05:06:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0xef7ada…
05-14 05:05:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xae6491…
05-14 05:04:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x191b23…
05-14 05:04:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xe95bf3…
05-14 05:04:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xcda2d9…
05-14 05:03:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	SELL	3	49¢	$1	0xf10e70…
05-14 05:03:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x7d3cbb…
05-14 05:02:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x44350a…
05-14 05:02:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x20f0e0…
05-14 04:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x733c5f…
05-14 04:59:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	74¢	$2	0xe97b90…
05-14 04:59:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x5d566e…
05-14 04:57:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	SELL	11	54¢	$6	0x5c5cf9…
05-14 04:55:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x7f2e7b…
05-14 04:54:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	SELL	12	48¢	$6	0x080395…
05-14 04:50:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x2836ae…
05-14 04:46:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	SELL	40	35¢	$14	0x63f28c…
05-14 04:45:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x597312…
05-14 04:45:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x510e71…
05-14 04:44:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	SELL	19	71¢	$14	0x2c966b…
05-14 04:42:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xe9ff57…
05-14 04:42:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x0eb67b…
05-13 23:01:18	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	81	86¢	$70	0xcd35eb…
05-08 15:48:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x0f6bdc…
05-08 15:45:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xdb28b8…
05-08 15:44:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	126	1¢	$1	0x7d00dc…
05-08 15:35:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0x6f1afc…
05-08 15:32:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0xf1ad39…