Tart-Uncertainty — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

66.1%

Resolved

Trades

390

lifetime

Volume

$2.27K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-01

last 06-16 02:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 66% +$14

Politics

0% — —

Other

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 44 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	No		+5	$5	97¢	$5	+$0	06-13 21:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 5m 1776254400	2	$16	36	+36	open	—	04-15 12:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	1	$15	21	+21	Down	$-15	05-08 23:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	4	$14	27	+27	Up	+$14	05-08 10:58
btc updown 5m 1776996600	2	$13	25	+25	open	—	04-24 02:13
btc updown 5m 1776991200	1	$13	15	+15	open	—	04-24 00:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	2	$13	21	+21	Up	+$8	05-08 07:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	1	$13	23	+23	Down	$-13	05-09 08:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	1	$13	18	+18	open	—	04-27 06:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	1	$13	20	+20	Up	+$7	05-09 02:08
btc updown 5m 1776991800	1	$12	15	+15	open	—	04-24 00:53
btc updown 5m 1776419100	2	$12	20	+20	open	—	04-17 09:47
btc updown 5m 1776389400	3	$12	15	+15	open	—	04-17 01:34
btc updown 5m 1776411600	1	$12	18	+18	open	—	04-17 07:44
btc updown 5m 1776417300	5	$12	17	+17	open	—	04-17 09:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	1	$12	21	+21	Down	+$9	05-09 00:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	2	$12	19	+19	open	—	04-27 06:13
btc updown 5m 1776401400	2	$12	17	+17	open	—	04-17 04:52
btc updown 5m 1776933000	1	$12	14	+14	open	—	04-23 08:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	1	$12	21	+21	Down	+$9	05-08 06:47
btc updown 5m 1776998100	1	$12	21	+21	open	—	04-24 02:38
btc updown 5m 1776317100	1	$12	14	+14	open	—	04-16 05:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	1	$12	19	+19	Down	$-12	05-08 23:43
btc updown 5m 1776932700	1	$12	16	+16	open	—	04-23 08:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	1	$12	16	+16	open	—	04-28 00:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	1	$11	20	+20	open	—	04-28 01:52
btc updown 5m 1776316500	1	$11	15	+15	open	—	04-16 05:17
btc updown 5m 1776990300	1	$11	13	+13	open	—	04-24 00:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	2	$11	20	+20	open	—	04-27 10:43
btc updown 5m 1776434700	2	$11	21	+21	open	—	04-17 14:08
btc updown 5m 1776426300	2	$11	14	+14	open	—	04-17 11:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-16 02:03:13	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x7d0669…
06-14 08:58:54	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15 20260612142709365	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xb9cec1…
06-13 21:53:15	bitcoin above 68k on june 16 2026	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x0cd15e…
06-13 21:53:12	Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xabc954…
06-02 14:52:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0xe7817b…
06-02 14:52:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x0b36e6…
06-02 14:22:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xa005f5…
06-02 13:57:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x41b1ef…
06-02 13:48:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x769c7a…
06-02 00:13:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xb4eca9…
06-01 23:08:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x82fe41…
06-01 23:03:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xfcabf2…
06-01 22:07:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xd3ea62…
06-01 21:37:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x7a8b4b…
05-18 23:18:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xf19a56…
05-18 22:48:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x71953e…
05-18 22:32:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x934c9e…
05-17 10:42:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x8c258e…
05-17 10:02:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x082d3c…
05-17 08:42:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xef8e98…
05-17 00:27:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xa0efdc…
05-16 20:38:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xc5c426…
05-16 20:33:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x26c8c3…
05-16 02:02:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xf144aa…
05-16 01:23:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xeb439d…
05-15 06:03:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xd39b69…
05-13 00:33:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x2bdf90…
05-13 00:27:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	62¢	$6	0x617fcf…
05-12 10:02:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xcd9d28…
05-12 08:58:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x0774ab…
05-12 03:07:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xdc2c3d…
05-12 03:02:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x630471…
05-12 02:23:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0x01d15c…
05-12 01:57:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xbcf80c…
05-12 01:57:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	69¢	$6	0xa4077c…
05-12 01:53:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xc23844…
05-12 00:52:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	15	57¢	$9	0xa6f0cc…
05-12 00:38:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0x8449d1…
05-12 00:28:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	11	60¢	$7	0xb43a78…
05-11 07:33:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xceca98…
05-11 07:33:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	70¢	$2	0x191379…
05-11 07:33:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	70¢	$2	0x8cad88…
05-11 06:03:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	12	63¢	$8	0x4df4d3…
05-11 04:28:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xd731cc…
05-11 02:48:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	48¢	$5	0x9369ad…
05-11 02:27:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x04f075…
05-11 02:27:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0x006c03…
05-11 02:17:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0xa4d882…
05-11 02:08:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0x63f2c0…
05-11 01:58:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0xa2d032…
05-11 01:58:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0xcbd6b6…
05-11 01:58:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xacb818…
05-11 01:58:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x601023…
05-11 01:43:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xb1e063…
05-11 01:28:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x8bee27…
05-10 23:12:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	13	64¢	$8	0x1ff6a4…
05-10 10:52:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	13	58¢	$8	0x5ccaaf…
05-10 10:42:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	15	42¢	$6	0x17cffc…
05-10 09:57:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	17	54¢	$9	0x1f8c54…
05-10 06:42:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	17	52¢	$9	0x7b2b40…
05-10 06:28:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	30¢	$3	0xf36fab…
05-10 05:08:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	15	51¢	$8	0x4c9508…
05-10 05:03:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	12	70¢	$8	0x458b00…
05-10 04:17:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	13	43¢	$6	0x8944c0…
05-10 02:58:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	15	57¢	$9	0x04dec6…
05-09 23:43:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	0	54¢	$0	0x74a53a…
05-09 23:43:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	14	54¢	$8	0x3a275f…
05-09 23:43:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x0f83f2…
05-09 23:02:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	16	36¢	$6	0xeb9f4b…
05-09 10:18:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	17	53¢	$9	0xd3735e…
05-09 08:32:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	23	55¢	$13	0xc0d23f…
05-09 02:08:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x67233f…
05-09 00:17:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	21	57¢	$12	0x90fd76…
05-08 23:43:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	19	61¢	$12	0xf6ce5f…
05-08 23:03:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	21	70¢	$15	0xc903f8…
05-08 10:58:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	50¢	$6	0x993baf…
05-08 10:58:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x6ffa91…
05-08 10:58:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x6f37da…
05-08 10:58:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x55b647…
05-08 07:17:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	15	61¢	$9	0x77ffd8…
05-08 07:17:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	61¢	$4	0x286161…
05-08 06:47:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	21	56¢	$12	0x44fa04…
05-08 06:18:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	14	75¢	$10	0xee3a8d…
05-08 04:57:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0xb95dbf…
05-08 04:57:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	54¢	$2	0xb709d9…
05-08 03:52:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x04e794…
05-08 03:52:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x89a934…
05-08 03:22:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	12	73¢	$9	0xfea5ab…
05-08 02:52:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	12	68¢	$8	0x770e20…
05-08 02:13:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	74¢	$8	0xdcd98f…
05-08 01:39:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	88¢	$4	0x73802c…
05-08 01:39:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0x60f7f4…
05-08 01:22:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	14	67¢	$9	0xe14f2d…
05-07 23:07:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	16	53¢	$8	0x8291fd…
05-07 09:58:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xbe052a…
05-07 09:58:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	60¢	$3	0x7a6885…
05-07 09:58:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	60¢	$3	0xb9145e…
05-07 08:28:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	14	60¢	$8	0x8289ec…
05-07 08:23:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	12	87¢	$10	0x3c1c5b…
05-07 05:47:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xf5fbfc…