Alert-Pagoda — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$23

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

62.0%

Resolved

Trades

101

lifetime

Volume

$915

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-04

last 05-18 20:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

70% 40% $-23

Other

26% — —

Politics

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	2	$105	584	0	+584	open	—	05-14 13:45
btc updown 5m 1772705400	1	$90	176	0	+176	open	—	03-04 11:59
xrp updown 5m 1772716200	1	$90	176	0	+176	open	—	03-05 10:21
btc updown 5m 1772721600	1	$80	157	0	+157	open	—	03-05 14:06
btc updown 15m 1772776800	1	$80	157	0	+157	open	—	03-05 13:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	2	$56	53	53	+0	Up	+$7	05-13 07:56
elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 40 64	2	$44	60	58	+2	open	—	04-15 06:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	3	$39	562	312	+250	Down	$-21	05-12 21:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	2	$30	189	0	+189	open	—	05-14 13:48
elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 40 64	3	$29	100	0	+100	open	—	04-15 07:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	1	$25	25	0	+25	Down	+$0	05-12 21:14
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 240 259	1	$22	100	0	+100	open	—	04-12 20:10
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	2	$20	114	114	+0	open	—	03-12 16:45
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	3	$17	149	67	+83	open	—	03-05 13:32
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 20 39	2	$13	13,000	0	+13,000	open	—	03-07 13:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	2	$11	10	10	+0	open	—	05-15 06:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	2	$11	9	9	+0	open	—	05-15 06:51
will james talarico receive the most votes in the first round of the democratic senate primary in texas	1	$10	195	0	+195	open	—	03-04 01:35
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale?	2	$9	300	300	+0	open	—	05-08 06:33
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 240 259	2	$8	10	10	+0	open	—	04-03 03:56
highest temperature in singapore on march 14 2026 27c	2	$6	942	0	+942	open	—	03-13 22:43
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 240 259	1	$6	40	0	+40	open	—	04-03 04:00
will hillary say president 5 times during her epstein testimony	1	$6	958	0	+958	open	—	03-04 15:45
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	2	$6	40	40	+0	open	—	04-23 12:59
will wagner moura win best actor at the 98th academy awards	2	$5	67	67	+0	open	—	03-15 08:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	1	$5	250	0	+250	Down	$-5	05-13 06:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	1	$5	16	0	+16	Down	$-5	05-12 21:26
war powers resolution passes the senate	1	$5	114	0	+114	open	—	03-05 14:13
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	1	$5	19	0	+19	open	—	05-15 06:48
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	1	$4	10	0	+10	open	—	04-23 13:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-18 20:58:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x613b2f…
05-15 06:57:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	10	64¢	$6	0x314b51…
05-15 06:54:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xe915f9…
05-15 06:51:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	SELL	9	68¢	$6	0x8b66c7…
05-15 06:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x2c14e8…
05-15 06:48:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x993325…
05-14 13:48:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x1774df…
05-14 13:47:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	139	18¢	$25	0x35bf50…
05-14 13:45:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	559	18¢	$100	0x60e58f…
05-14 13:41:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x7ce7ca…
05-13 07:56:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	53	59¢	$32	0xabf380…
05-13 07:55:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	53	45¢	$24	0x80b05d…
05-13 06:49:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x597afb…
05-12 21:26:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xf6c141…
05-12 21:24:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x01ea21…
05-12 21:23:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	SELL	312	3¢	$9	0xb53c0f…
05-12 21:22:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	312	8¢	$25	0xa3b4b7…
05-12 21:14:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x6ce80b…
05-08 06:33:04	Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale?	Yes	SELL	300	2¢	$7	0x2ea2ca…
04-30 11:16:36	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x186756…
04-30 11:16:30	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x064b3e…
04-30 09:58:26	Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale?	Yes	BUY	300	1¢	$2	0xcc2b48…
04-23 13:00:38	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x199706…
04-23 12:59:02	Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	7¢	$3	0xc65795…
04-23 12:58:38	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 240 259	Yes	SELL	12	11¢	$1	0xc86941…
04-15 11:11:52	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 240 259	Yes	BUY	13	16¢	$2	0xa4d8f5…
04-15 07:52:44	elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 40 64	Yes	BUY	4	29¢	$1	0xf804d9…
04-15 06:38:42	elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 40 64	Yes	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0xc171e4…
04-15 06:30:24	elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 40 64	Yes	BUY	94	29¢	$27	0x67dbfa…
04-15 06:29:34	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 40 64	Yes	SELL	58	52¢	$30	0x4588e4…
04-12 20:10:59	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 40 64	Yes	BUY	60	24¢	$14	0x7d8238…
04-12 20:10:15	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 240 259	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x2fdbf2…
04-03 04:59:29	Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0x1cc0a7…
04-03 04:58:39	Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	3¢	$2	0xf58820…
04-03 04:00:47	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 240 259	Yes	BUY	40	15¢	$6	0x289f75…
04-03 03:56:37	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 240 259	Yes	SELL	10	68¢	$7	0xb904ef…
03-27 11:28:05	will hsi dip to 19650 in march	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0xde7eea…
03-27 10:46:27	Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	78	1¢	$1	0x4e3199…
03-27 10:45:39	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 240 259	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xcd08f7…
03-27 10:45:27	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 160 179	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x9dc625…
03-27 10:43:57	xrp updown 5m 1774608000	Down	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x02b21b…
03-27 10:41:35	will xai have the top ai model at the end of march 2026	Yes	BUY	69	1¢	$1	0x1b0884…
03-27 10:41:11	will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	Yes	BUY	274	0¢	$1	0xf7328e…
03-27 10:28:59	will ethereum reach 2600 in march 2026	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0xb24b7c…
03-27 10:28:01	will hsi dip to 18600 in march	Yes	SELL	107	0¢	$0	0xd3ac93…
03-27 10:27:35	will hsi dip to 18600 in march	Yes	BUY	107	1¢	$1	0xad74d7…
03-15 22:10:41	highest temperature in chicago on march 17 2026 16 17f	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x6bc81d…
03-15 22:06:09	highest temperature in atlanta on march 17 2026 50 51f	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x164ccb…
03-15 22:05:23	will afd win the second most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	37	3¢	$1	0xb19b3b…
03-15 22:05:09	Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$1	0x4d2bc6…
03-15 09:01:55	highest temperature in atlanta on march 15 2026 68 69f	Yes	BUY	82	1¢	$1	0x1e1a58…
03-15 09:01:19	highest temperature in london on march 15 2026 10c	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x34868e…
03-15 09:00:03	highest temperature in singapore on march 15 2026 31c	Yes	BUY	131	1¢	$1	0x7d12fb…
03-15 08:59:39	will wagner moura win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	67	4¢	$2	0xf30795…
03-13 23:00:05	will alibaba have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 712	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x0e1f70…
03-13 22:58:27	highest temperature in london on march 14 2026 7c	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x47d492…
03-13 22:58:21	highest temperature in london on march 14 2026 6corbelow	Yes	BUY	440	0¢	$1	0x4d4599…
03-13 22:53:11	highest temperature in nyc on march 15 2026 37forbelow	Yes	BUY	152	1¢	$1	0xc97d2c…
03-13 22:52:13	bitcoin up or down march 13 6pm et	Up	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x03177a…
03-13 22:51:53	bitcoin up or down march 13 5pm et	Up	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x60942c…
03-13 22:43:17	highest temperature in singapore on march 14 2026 27c	Yes	BUY	177	1¢	$2	0x2852c2…
03-13 22:43:03	highest temperature in singapore on march 14 2026 29c	Yes	BUY	37	8¢	$3	0xd07328…
03-13 22:43:01	highest temperature in singapore on march 14 2026 28c	Yes	BUY	140	2¢	$3	0x9f5fe1…
03-13 22:42:59	highest temperature in singapore on march 14 2026 27c	Yes	BUY	766	1¢	$4	0x40720d…
03-12 16:53:07	will afd win the second most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0x83bcf8…
03-12 16:51:49	will mrbeasts next video get less than 71 million views on day 6	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xc1bd90…
03-12 16:51:27	will mrbeasts next video get less than 62 million views on day 5	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x3e266e…
03-12 16:49:45	Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0xa3ec67…
03-12 16:49:21	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	225	1¢	$3	0x6729e4…
03-12 16:47:15	will wagner moura win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	67	5¢	$3	0x314da1…
03-12 16:46:51	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 180 199	Yes	BUY	143	2¢	$3	0x9750b1…
03-12 16:45:35	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	Yes	SELL	114	14¢	$15	0xac4d8a…
03-07 13:44:29	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 0 19	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x61be1a…
03-07 13:44:07	will the total number of tsa passengers for march 13 be less than 2000000	Yes	BUY	54	4¢	$2	0xf0c0a3…
03-07 13:43:31	will the us flu hospitalization rate per 100000 in week 9 be less than 60	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x1f5b81…
03-07 13:43:01	will so easy to fall in love olivia dean be the 1 song on spotify this week 798	Yes	BUY	113	2¢	$2	0xe4c5df…
03-07 13:42:55	will end of beginning djo be the 1 song on spotify this week 119	Yes	BUY	114	2¢	$2	0x2a513f…
03-07 13:42:51	will man i need olivia dean be the 1 song on spotify this week 984	Yes	BUY	130	2¢	$3	0xebed88…
03-07 13:42:13	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 40 59	Yes	BUY	3,000	0¢	$3	0x20daec…
03-07 13:42:07	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 20 39	Yes	BUY	3,000	0¢	$3	0x492ff5…
03-07 13:42:03	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 20 39	Yes	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0xdf843d…
03-05 15:34:25	Will Mustafa Hijri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xe2fadc…
03-05 15:33:53	Will Ali Motahari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xc9f905…
03-05 15:32:23	highest temperature in nyc on march 6 2026 34 35f	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x5c2d5d…
03-05 15:29:57	2026 us house election republican odds over 50 by march 31	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0xd57d36…
03-05 15:29:51	2026 us house election republican odds over 60 by march 31	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x4dd2c5…
03-05 14:28:25	highest temperature in london on march 5 2026 19c	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x27f1d5…
03-05 14:13:43	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	Yes	BUY	114	4¢	$5	0xeaa29a…
03-05 14:13:25	war powers resolution passes the senate	Yes	BUY	114	4¢	$5	0xec905e…
03-05 14:06:49	btc updown 5m 1772721600	Up	BUY	157	51¢	$80	0xa2f83e…
03-05 13:32:45	Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	18	16¢	$3	0xecd44d…
03-05 13:19:13	btc updown 15m 1772776800	Up	BUY	157	51¢	$80	0x3d722d…
03-05 10:21:03	xrp updown 5m 1772716200	Up	BUY	176	51¢	$90	0xc8e9bd…
03-04 15:50:49	will the us test a nuclear weapon by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0x8c31ce…
03-04 15:45:01	will hillary say president 5 times during her epstein testimony	Yes	BUY	958	1¢	$6	0x3cf460…
03-04 15:44:45	Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	SELL	67	10¢	$6	0x85bc3d…
03-04 15:43:51	will the peoples party pple win fewer than 120 seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	Yes	SELL	29	1¢	$0	0x5f0866…
03-04 12:28:11	will the peoples party pple win fewer than 120 seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	Yes	BUY	29	10¢	$3	0xa2beee…
03-04 11:59:07	btc updown 5m 1772705400	Up	BUY	176	51¢	$90	0xc161ac…
03-04 01:36:23	Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	131	6¢	$8	0x05c94b…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Fragrant-Dandelion 0x1408…b4f8	35	$14.4K	2,752	04-27 20:17
oVyg7f 0x5f39…a78c	35	$4.38K	626	04-08 08:52
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	33	$28.7K	2,307	03-28 06:06
Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81	33	$744	514	03-27 10:28
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	32	$60.5K	5,833	04-30 09:20
Awkward-Patriot 0xe372…eb38	32	$17.9K	5,871	04-17 14:12
(anonymous) 0xf2eb…6eb5	31	$12.1K	589	03-18 07:25
Real-Veteran 0xe8dd…ec86	30	$397.3K	6,854	04-27 12:01