Inferior-Cast — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$467

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

12.9%

Resolved

Trades

160

lifetime

Volume

$22.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$139

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 05-21 02:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

49% 50% $-467

Sports

25% — —

Other

17% — —

Politics

9% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 79 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$2.9K	1,806	1,806	+0	open	—	04-16 15:44
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves	2	$1.7K	1,176	1,176	+0	open	—	05-05 03:59
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic	2	$889	701	695	+6	open	—	04-30 07:06
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	3	$804	1,135	0	+1,135	open	—	04-16 15:51
will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	3	$749	1,137	0	+1,137	open	—	02-24 18:23
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	2	$741	601	299	+302	open	—	04-22 03:34
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$705	462	455	+6	open	—	04-25 01:23
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	2	$680	526	526	+0	open	—	05-01 07:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	7	$625	1,012	0	+1,012	open	—	05-01 20:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	6	$600	812	0	+812	open	—	05-01 21:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	3	$564	367	367	+0	open	—	05-01 16:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	3	$511	327	327	+0	open	—	05-01 16:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	7	$509	727	625	+102	Down	$-291	05-07 04:39
Spurs vs. Thunder	1	$500	595	0	+595	open	—	05-21 02:29
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	1	$499	1,512	0	+1,512	open	—	02-08 21:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	4	$402	527	278	+249	open	—	05-01 07:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	4	$400	532	0	+532	open	—	05-02 21:57
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?	7	$339	502	0	+502	open	—	04-19 06:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	4	$323	485	420	+65	open	—	05-01 21:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	3	$300	449	0	+449	open	—	05-02 21:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	3	$300	464	0	+464	open	—	05-01 20:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	3	$300	454	0	+454	open	—	05-01 20:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	3	$300	457	0	+457	open	—	05-02 19:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	3	$300	417	0	+417	open	—	05-02 21:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	2	$242	145	145	+0	open	—	05-01 20:42
will lus marques mendes win the 2026 portugal presidential election	1	$236	0	1,389	-1,389	open	—	01-12 17:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	3	$225	340	0	+340	open	—	05-01 15:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	3	$225	425	0	+425	open	—	05-01 20:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	3	$225	458	0	+458	open	—	05-01 08:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	3	$225	342	0	+342	open	—	05-02 20:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-21 02:29:28	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	595	84¢	$500	0x089511…
05-07 04:39:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	SELL	148	8¢	$12	0x884b63…
05-07 04:39:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	SELL	187	10¢	$19	0xce1ef7…
05-07 04:38:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0xc4812a…
05-07 04:38:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	153	65¢	$100	0x2c72c8…
05-07 04:38:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	SELL	291	27¢	$78	0x87c5ed…
05-07 04:37:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	291	34¢	$100	0x7a7a31…
05-07 04:36:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	138	73¢	$100	0xc00bde…
05-07 04:32:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	153	66¢	$100	0x020aee…
05-07 04:31:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	250	40¢	$100	0xb1442a…
05-05 04:03:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x57a566…
05-05 03:59:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	124	81¢	$100	0xfe2d9b…
05-05 03:59:32	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	SELL	1,176	63¢	$741	0x3165b0…
05-04 05:34:36	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	BUY	1,176	85¢	$1,000	0x84928f…
05-02 21:57:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0xa93349…
05-02 21:56:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	129	78¢	$100	0x911034…
05-02 21:56:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0x603365…
05-02 21:56:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0xffca66…
05-02 21:53:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	121	82¢	$100	0x552ca2…
05-02 21:53:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0xb3d40f…
05-02 21:53:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x61b26d…
05-02 21:37:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x491f43…
05-02 21:26:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	54	46¢	$25	0x6881be…
05-02 21:22:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0xc18283…
05-02 21:06:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	113	88¢	$100	0x49bec6…
05-02 21:05:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	136	73¢	$100	0xacb14f…
05-02 21:05:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0xac6c3d…
05-02 20:58:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0x30d8b0…
05-02 20:47:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0x61c44c…
05-02 20:47:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	142	71¢	$100	0x6cfb93…
05-02 20:45:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	61	41¢	$25	0xc308a4…
05-02 20:42:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	120	84¢	$100	0xe32786…
05-02 20:37:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xc485a0…
05-02 19:17:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	116	54¢	$63	0xd80a93…
05-02 19:13:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	151	66¢	$100	0x177d77…
05-02 19:12:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0x871584…
05-02 19:08:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	234	43¢	$100	0x55063b…
05-02 19:07:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0xe2f438…
05-02 19:07:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0x5c35da…
05-02 19:03:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	177	56¢	$100	0x7aeec2…
05-02 19:01:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0x664a59…
05-02 19:01:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0x9429fb…
05-02 18:47:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xf9d1fa…
05-02 18:47:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x4963f6…
05-02 18:44:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xd45067…
05-02 18:43:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	93	27¢	$25	0x9141e2…
05-02 18:42:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0x4361fb…
05-02 18:37:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	180	55¢	$100	0xe05c98…
05-02 18:31:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	169	59¢	$100	0xf12475…
05-01 21:23:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	SELL	252	37¢	$93	0x03024c…
05-01 21:22:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	252	40¢	$100	0xdc2630…
05-01 21:18:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	117	85¢	$100	0xacae77…
05-01 21:18:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0xc44ff1…
05-01 21:18:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	131	76¢	$100	0x0b6b09…
05-01 21:18:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	138	73¢	$100	0x35a827…
05-01 21:17:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	157	64¢	$100	0x0eb0a2…
05-01 21:16:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x06e6e4…
05-01 21:14:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	65	85¢	$55	0xedc60e…
05-01 21:13:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	SELL	420	16¢	$68	0x70806c…
05-01 21:11:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	238	42¢	$100	0x3194d9…
05-01 21:10:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x84ca43…
05-01 21:06:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	202	49¢	$100	0xac293a…
05-01 21:05:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0xb8c0b2…
05-01 20:48:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	146	68¢	$100	0xe4ff4b…
05-01 20:46:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0xdbc85b…
05-01 20:46:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0x1141eb…
05-01 20:42:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	SELL	145	98¢	$142	0x34ec6f…
05-01 20:40:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x59de75…
05-01 20:38:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	152	66¢	$100	0xf52539…
05-01 20:38:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x96c5f7…
05-01 20:35:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x0f04cd…
05-01 20:34:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0x44d907…
05-01 20:33:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0xdca90c…
05-01 20:32:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x67b16c…
05-01 20:17:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	SELL	286	17¢	$50	0x961269…
05-01 20:17:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	286	35¢	$100	0x402b55…
05-01 20:14:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0x6bd84d…
05-01 20:13:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	142	70¢	$100	0xcd4705…
05-01 20:12:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0xe95b34…
05-01 20:12:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x93faad…
05-01 20:11:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0xe56614…
05-01 20:11:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	64	39¢	$25	0x16f679…
05-01 20:10:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	194	52¢	$100	0x9ba4c0…
05-01 20:08:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	414	6¢	$25	0xff1249…
05-01 16:26:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0xd0b3ea…
05-01 16:25:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0xb7b970…
05-01 16:20:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0x98fd9c…
05-01 16:15:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x3c65a0…
05-01 16:15:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	163	61¢	$100	0x4c6741…
05-01 16:14:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	367	99¢	$364	0xbb6d38…
05-01 16:11:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	189	53¢	$100	0x39c673…
05-01 16:10:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0x926317…
05-01 16:08:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	SELL	175	11¢	$19	0xd5f499…
05-01 16:05:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	175	57¢	$100	0x3c5a38…
05-01 16:02:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	SELL	327	95¢	$311	0x871fa0…
05-01 16:00:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0xef36c4…
05-01 15:59:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	188	53¢	$100	0xa3f7f3…
05-01 15:56:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0x4515f6…
05-01 15:56:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	142	70¢	$100	0xbe3071…
05-01 15:55:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	62	40¢	$25	0x09fdcd…