Reliable-Policy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

48.8%

Resolved

Trades

140

lifetime

Volume

$47.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$341

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 05-31 02:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

52% 50% $-1

Sports

40% — —

Crypto

6% — —

Politics

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 41 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$3.9K	1,969	1,969	+0	open	—	03-05 08:46
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?	4	$3.4K	1,718	1,718	+0	open	—	03-21 13:19
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$3.3K	1,650	1,650	+0	open	—	03-15 09:21
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?	2	$2.0K	1,008	1,008	+0	open	—	03-25 21:01
will denny mccarthy win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$2.0K	990	990	+0	open	—	03-24 05:29
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?	2	$2.0K	986	986	+0	open	—	03-28 12:57
will charl schwartzel win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$2.0K	982	982	+0	open	—	03-21 01:16
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$1.9K	963	963	+0	open	—	02-15 03:24
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$1.9K	960	960	+0	open	—	03-21 09:43
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?	2	$1.9K	953	953	+0	No	$-1	03-21 18:44
will byeong hun an win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$1.9K	947	947	+0	open	—	03-25 08:39
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$1.8K	910	910	+0	No	+$0	03-24 12:27
will nicolai hojgaard win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$1.8K	907	907	+0	open	—	03-23 08:32
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?	2	$1.8K	907	907	+0	open	—	03-26 03:02
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$1.8K	904	904	+0	open	—	03-05 13:08
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$1.7K	872	872	+0	open	—	02-08 02:51
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	7	$1.7K	850	850	+0	open	—	01-26 17:33
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$1.5K	764	764	+0	open	—	03-16 14:15
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$1.5K	751	751	+0	open	—	03-04 08:42
Will Solana dip to $50 in May?	1	$1.2K	1,166	0	+1,166	open	—	05-22 20:16
ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 spread away 1pt5	1	$1.2K	1,514	0	+1,514	open	—	04-07 07:06
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$1.1K	530	530	+0	open	—	03-09 19:01
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	2	$950	476	476	+0	open	—	02-01 11:06
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?	1	$924	925	0	+925	open	—	05-26 12:54
bank of japan increases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$430	216	216	+0	open	—	01-19 08:09
will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	1	$236	236	0	+236	open	—	01-18 03:19
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 440 459	2	$190	100	100	+0	open	—	02-03 05:47
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$160	222	222	+0	open	—	01-14 14:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	31	$114	380	0	+380	open	—	05-30 06:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	3	$105	350	0	+350	open	—	05-31 02:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-31 02:05:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0xf347ac…
05-31 02:05:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	136	30¢	$41	0x07b1a3…
05-31 02:05:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	210	30¢	$63	0x1180d6…
05-30 06:48:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	22	30¢	$7	0x11e723…
05-30 06:48:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xfbd6a1…
05-30 06:48:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x5b0bd1…
05-30 06:48:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x54dea7…
05-30 06:48:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	14	30¢	$4	0x14cbd4…
05-30 06:48:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x11ccdc…
05-30 06:48:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x0cbc18…
05-30 06:48:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x210bed…
05-30 06:46:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0xca6d8f…
05-30 06:46:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	8	30¢	$2	0xd08ba4…
05-30 06:44:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xbac491…
05-30 06:44:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xad66c0…
05-30 06:44:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	58	30¢	$18	0x906d05…
05-30 06:44:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x759b3f…
05-30 06:44:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x718b98…
05-30 06:44:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x2eb664…
05-30 06:44:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0x2799a3…
05-30 06:44:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xd73596…
05-30 06:44:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	12	30¢	$4	0xc6e155…
05-30 06:44:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	16	30¢	$5	0xa30abd…
05-30 06:44:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	9	30¢	$3	0x87b335…
05-30 06:44:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x5d5e6c…
05-30 06:44:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	21	30¢	$6	0x2313db…
05-30 06:44:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x027221…
05-30 06:44:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0xbe35fa…
05-30 06:44:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	30¢	$0	0xa6cc1e…
05-30 06:44:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x1d4e6c…
05-30 06:44:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0xe805dd…
05-30 06:44:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	39	30¢	$12	0xdfe412…
05-30 06:44:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xdc24b8…
05-30 06:44:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x3494f3…
05-30 06:44:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0xe8f05c…
05-30 06:44:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xdd81f0…
05-30 06:44:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0xdd4194…
05-30 06:44:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	32	30¢	$10	0xc6484b…
05-30 06:44:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0x8b899a…
05-30 06:44:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	43	30¢	$13	0x84c7b4…
05-30 06:44:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x6339ea…
05-30 06:44:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0x618539…
05-30 06:44:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0x41bb03…
05-30 06:44:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	15	30¢	$4	0x01461b…
05-26 12:54:11	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?	No	BUY	925	100¢	$924	0xfe64f3…
05-22 20:16:15	Will Solana dip to $50 in May?	No	BUY	1,166	100¢	$1,162	0x44d651…
04-07 07:06:39	ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 spread away 1pt5	Real Madrid CF	BUY	1,514	76¢	$1,151	0xc3f954…
03-28 12:57:35	Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	986	100¢	$981	0x43fcd2…
03-28 11:11:05	Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	986	100¢	$982	0x5b9e64…
03-26 03:02:47	Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	907	99¢	$901	0x4e8b4b…
03-26 00:59:21	Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	907	100¢	$903	0x0a43ad…
03-25 21:01:17	Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	1,008	99¢	$1,002	0x70ec90…
03-25 19:39:33	Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	1,008	100¢	$1,003	0x238fef…
03-25 08:39:53	will byeong hun an win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	947	100¢	$944	0x14fb0a…
03-25 07:02:07	will byeong hun an win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	947	100¢	$945	0xa6895f…
03-24 12:27:11	Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	910	100¢	$908	0xe81bb0…
03-24 10:20:03	Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	910	100¢	$908	0xc41e8d…
03-24 05:29:09	will denny mccarthy win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	990	100¢	$987	0x8fc912…
03-24 03:41:49	will denny mccarthy win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	990	100¢	$988	0x24568c…
03-23 08:32:57	will nicolai hojgaard win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	907	99¢	$902	0x614567…
03-23 06:47:45	will nicolai hojgaard win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	907	100¢	$903	0x87b038…
03-21 18:44:41	Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	953	100¢	$950	0x0d740c…
03-21 17:10:59	Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	953	100¢	$951	0x9299f0…
03-21 13:19:17	Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	996	100¢	$993	0x406cdb…
03-21 11:24:03	Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	996	100¢	$994	0x1f7c3b…
03-21 09:43:49	Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	960	99¢	$955	0xd9e5df…
03-21 08:10:19	Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	960	100¢	$956	0x38871e…
03-21 01:16:41	will charl schwartzel win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	982	100¢	$979	0xa39b33…
03-20 13:14:37	will charl schwartzel win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	982	100¢	$980	0xa232b2…
03-16 14:15:57	Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	764	99¢	$759	0xf85a26…
03-16 12:31:47	Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	764	99¢	$759	0xf75d87…
03-16 04:49:29	Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	723	100¢	$721	0x77872f…
03-16 03:44:25	Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	723	100¢	$721	0xc58c29…
03-15 09:21:53	Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	728	99¢	$722	0xd1e9ee…
03-15 07:40:37	Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	728	99¢	$723	0x5f32c2…
03-14 02:29:23	bun b04 bay 2026 03 14 draw	No	BUY	103	81¢	$83	0x2b8901…
03-13 01:27:29	fl1 olm aja 2026 03 13 draw	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x847e0e…
03-12 03:56:55	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0xb180cb…
03-12 03:14:51	nhl ana tor 2026 03 12	Ducks	BUY	147	50¢	$74	0x966273…
03-11 05:17:25	nba tor nop 2026 03 11	Pelicans	BUY	152	48¢	$73	0x3a2a14…
03-10 02:48:37	nhl det fla 2026 03 10	Red Wings	BUY	152	46¢	$70	0x4bcdec…
03-09 19:01:27	Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	530	100¢	$529	0x47eb3a…
03-09 17:03:49	Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	530	100¢	$530	0x7e333a…
03-09 03:00:29	ucl ata1 bay1 2026 03 10 bay1	No	BUY	154	40¢	$61	0xc14fa1…
03-08 03:08:33	nba ind por 2026 03 08	Trail Blazers	BUY	110	78¢	$86	0x59e6f3…
03-07 06:43:41	bun koe dor 2026 03 07 koe	Yes	BUY	237	24¢	$57	0xa237b0…
03-06 10:25:17	Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	923	99¢	$915	0x1fafb1…
03-06 09:34:11	sea nap tor 2026 03 06 draw	Yes	BUY	367	26¢	$96	0xf53132…
03-06 09:13:35	Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	923	99¢	$916	0xcf933d…
03-05 13:08:21	Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	904	99¢	$897	0x8d27a7…
03-05 11:58:49	Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	904	99¢	$898	0xeae9ca…
03-05 08:46:59	Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	1,006	99¢	$997	0xa93a08…
03-05 07:48:27	Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	1,006	99¢	$998	0xc0ed3c…
03-05 06:29:47	nhl fla cbj 2026 03 05	Panthers	BUY	146	48¢	$70	0x9b1c21…
03-04 08:42:25	Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	751	100¢	$748	0x16aeaf…
03-04 08:04:27	Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	751	100¢	$749	0xfffd78…
03-03 06:40:51	nhl utah wsh 2026 03 03	Capitals	BUY	96	54¢	$52	0x536c90…
02-28 10:44:53	lal mal rso 2026 02 28 rso	No	BUY	154	60¢	$93	0x3e2d9e…
02-26 09:26:24	ethereum above 2300 on february 26	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xb6a009…
02-26 07:03:50	Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	963	99¢	$954	0xf1b29a…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Probable-Farrow 0x6814…a9e7	35	$279.0K	20,392	04-21 23:40
Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9	34	$457.2K	3,152	03-14 16:29
oVyg7f 0x5f39…a78c	34	$46.7K	1,263	03-14 16:25
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	34	$23.4K	559	05-11 21:37
Real-Veteran 0xe8dd…ec86	30	$3.81M	44,788	04-28 09:54
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	30	$11.8K	7,018	04-21 07:01
Different-Hazel 0x3dd2…9ab1	26	$108.7K	910	03-28 03:55
Well-Documented-Hit 0x30ce…6b2b	25	$770.2K	43,952	04-09 19:50