Incredible-Pencil — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$34

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

34.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$552

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-20

last 05-13 18:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

91% 60% $-34

Politics

5% — —

Other

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 5m 1774035300	2	$107	58	58	+0	open	—	03-20 19:40
btc updown 5m 1774035900	2	$53	29	29	+0	open	—	03-20 19:50
btc updown 5m 1775343000	2	$45	80	0	+80	open	—	04-04 22:54
btc updown 5m 1775343900	2	$45	62	0	+62	open	—	04-04 23:09
btc updown 5m 1775343600	2	$40	51	0	+51	open	—	04-04 23:04
btc updown 5m 1774100700	2	$33	24	23	+0	open	—	03-21 13:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	2	$30	53	0	+53	Down	$-30	05-05 14:37
btc updown 5m 1774016400	1	$25	52	0	+52	open	—	03-20 14:21
btc updown 5m 1774009800	1	$25	30	0	+30	open	—	03-20 12:32
btc updown 5m 1774015800	1	$20	37	0	+37	open	—	03-20 14:14
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$20	12	12	+0	open	—	03-25 00:57
btc updown 5m 1774034700	3	$18	38	11	+26	open	—	03-20 19:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	1	$15	1,500	0	+1,500	open	—	04-28 14:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	2	$10	5	5	+0	Down	+$0	05-13 18:51
btc updown 5m 1774200600	1	$10	17	0	+17	open	—	03-22 17:33
will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	1	$7	131	0	+131	open	—	03-20 23:12
will elon musks net worth be at least 710b on march 31	1	$6	111	0	+111	open	—	03-23 16:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	1	$6	7	0	+7	Down	$-6	05-13 18:58
will trump say whats up this week march 22	1	$6	35	0	+35	open	—	03-21 14:11
btc updown 5m 1774101000	1	$5	20	0	+20	open	—	03-21 13:52
will the dhs shutdown end between march 28 31 2026	1	$5	41	0	+41	open	—	03-25 01:09
btc updown 5m 1774035600	1	$5	30	0	+30	open	—	03-20 19:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	1	$5	6	0	+6	Down	+$1	05-13 18:43
will trump say too big to rig this week march 22	1	$4	16	0	+16	open	—	03-21 14:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	1	$4	5	0	+5	Up	+$1	05-13 18:53
highest temperature in london on march 21 2026 14c	1	$2	7	0	+7	open	—	03-20 23:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-13 18:58:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0xbd80e6…
05-13 18:53:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x81a513…
05-13 18:51:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x32b1e2…
05-13 18:49:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x30656c…
05-13 18:43:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x9e5bef…
05-05 14:37:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xf484da…
05-05 14:36:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0x53d0f5…
04-28 14:39:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1,500	1¢	$15	0xbfcee4…
04-04 23:09:37	btc updown 5m 1775343900	Down	BUY	42	71¢	$30	0x3b5b61…
04-04 23:08:07	btc updown 5m 1775343900	Down	BUY	19	78¢	$15	0xa0ddbd…
04-04 23:04:51	btc updown 5m 1775343600	Down	BUY	28	88¢	$25	0xcd5f53…
04-04 23:01:39	btc updown 5m 1775343600	Down	BUY	23	66¢	$15	0x294ec0…
04-04 22:54:37	btc updown 5m 1775343000	Down	BUY	59	51¢	$30	0x8f9d48…
04-04 22:53:57	btc updown 5m 1775343000	Down	BUY	21	71¢	$15	0xdcd3c5…
03-25 01:09:15	will the dhs shutdown end between march 28 31 2026	Yes	BUY	41	12¢	$5	0xea9688…
03-25 00:57:19	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	12	80¢	$10	0xa13295…
03-25 00:56:45	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x8088bf…
03-23 16:16:47	will elon musks net worth be at least 710b on march 31	Yes	BUY	111	5¢	$6	0x38416c…
03-22 17:33:05	btc updown 5m 1774200600	Up	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x8d5acd…
03-21 14:15:21	will trump say too big to rig this week march 22	Yes	BUY	16	25¢	$4	0xd26a37…
03-21 14:11:45	will trump say whats up this week march 22	Yes	BUY	35	17¢	$6	0x5203a0…
03-21 13:52:31	btc updown 5m 1774101000	Down	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xe2dd92…
03-21 13:51:15	btc updown 5m 1774100700	Up	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x6ec056…
03-21 13:46:33	btc updown 5m 1774100700	Up	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0xb7cda1…
03-20 23:18:25	highest temperature in london on march 21 2026 14c	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xb6b4d8…
03-20 23:12:59	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	No	BUY	131	5¢	$7	0x229c00…
03-20 19:50:25	btc updown 5m 1774035900	Down	SELL	29	99¢	$28	0x47465e…
03-20 19:48:53	btc updown 5m 1774035900	Down	BUY	29	87¢	$25	0x2ac70d…
03-20 19:41:17	btc updown 5m 1774035600	Down	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0xe86b20…
03-20 19:40:37	btc updown 5m 1774035300	Down	SELL	58	99¢	$57	0x8c657b…
03-20 19:37:33	btc updown 5m 1774035300	Down	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0x7ee938…
03-20 19:31:07	btc updown 5m 1774034700	Up	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x0c3085…
03-20 19:29:25	btc updown 5m 1774034700	Down	BUY	26	7¢	$2	0x1e14a7…
03-20 19:27:25	btc updown 5m 1774034700	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x70f8a1…
03-20 14:21:41	btc updown 5m 1774016400	Down	BUY	52	48¢	$25	0xf8e924…
03-20 14:14:13	btc updown 5m 1774015800	Down	BUY	37	55¢	$20	0xf91ab8…
03-20 12:32:07	btc updown 5m 1774009800	Down	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x5e34a1…