Empty-Knuckle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$13

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

84.5%

Resolved

Trades

107

lifetime

Volume

$446

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-28

last 06-12 16:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

58% 89% +$3

Politics

35% — —

Other

7% 0% $-16

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	10	$135	29,914	15,457	+14,457	open	—	04-30 08:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	4	$34	35	0	+35	open	—	05-18 12:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	4	$26	30	0	+30	open	—	05-18 14:24
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	2	$25	25	0	+25	Up	+$0	05-05 09:44
Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?	15	$22	144	144	+0	Yes	$-16	05-04 16:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	2	$20	20	0	+20	Up	+$0	05-04 21:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	1	$18	20	0	+20	Up	+$2	05-04 22:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	2	$14	15	0	+15	open	—	05-18 14:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	Down	+$0	05-04 21:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	Up	+$0	05-04 22:15
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	8	$10	2,200	2,200	+0	open	—	04-30 08:01
AWS service disrupted by April 30?	3	$7	10	10	+0	open	—	04-30 22:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	2	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	05-18 14:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	1	$5	500	0	+500	open	—	05-04 17:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	Up	+$0	05-04 21:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-04 17:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-18 14:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	Down	+$0	05-04 22:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	Down	+$0	05-04 22:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-28 21:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	Up	+$0	05-04 21:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-04 17:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	Up	+$0	05-10 11:04
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	Up	+$0	05-05 11:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	Down	+$0	05-08 20:54
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-04 21:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	Down	+$0	05-04 22:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-04 17:56
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	1	$4	5	0	+5	Up	+$1	05-05 09:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	1	$4	5	0	+5	Up	+$1	05-04 21:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 16:41:00	will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	No	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x17003f…
06-12 16:18:21	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	No	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x6a64a9…
06-12 16:16:33	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xdbb0c8…
06-12 16:13:03	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xda8893…
06-12 16:06:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x51c950…
05-18 14:36:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0x1ef34f…
05-18 14:36:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x64dce1…
05-18 14:33:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xa5a37d…
05-18 14:32:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xf47cbd…
05-18 14:29:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xeffd4c…
05-18 14:24:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xdff597…
05-18 14:24:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xb25446…
05-18 14:24:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x112baa…
05-18 14:21:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xe42670…
05-18 12:07:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x81a4f8…
05-18 12:07:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x2f2150…
05-18 12:07:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x156bf8…
05-18 12:06:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xe435fd…
05-10 11:04:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xec2488…
05-09 20:54:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xce2066…
05-08 20:54:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3a15c7…
05-05 15:56:32	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "AI" or "Intelligence" this week?	No	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x9be172…
05-05 12:15:44	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "AI" or "Intelligence" this week?	No	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x6a8dd3…
05-05 11:09:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2e5d75…
05-05 09:47:48	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x9bc8be…
05-05 09:44:54	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x262d75…
05-05 09:44:36	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xc0ee2d…
05-04 22:49:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x245425…
05-04 22:30:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb72b7d…
05-04 22:25:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xfc776b…
05-04 22:19:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe2f584…
05-04 22:15:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x0d4e1e…
05-04 22:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x634218…
05-04 21:59:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3be857…
05-04 21:52:24	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x034047…
05-04 21:49:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xbb56c8…
05-04 21:29:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x03d0c8…
05-04 21:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xeff959…
05-04 21:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8c6b65…
05-04 21:03:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x57c182…
05-04 20:53:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x82e1b5…
05-04 17:56:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xd7b4e1…
05-04 17:40:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x390bb8…
05-04 17:34:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x518e87…
05-04 17:22:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xbd1274…
05-04 17:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa12f3e…
05-04 16:43:38	Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	60	0¢	$0	0xbaf445…
05-01 11:43:32	Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	17	1¢	$0	0x0f9978…
05-01 11:32:44	Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	16	1¢	$0	0xc0e122…
05-01 10:30:44	Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0x1270a3…
05-01 09:14:10	Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x736d23…
05-01 09:13:36	Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	7¢	$1	0x324413…
05-01 09:13:34	Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0xb2266d…
05-01 09:12:44	Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	11¢	$3	0x958ccd…
05-01 09:11:50	Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	12¢	$2	0xf27c88…
05-01 09:11:34	Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0xce01a9…
05-01 09:10:30	Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	18¢	$2	0x87d36b…
05-01 09:09:44	Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xda27ef…
05-01 09:09:02	Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xa5c8d0…
05-01 09:08:22	Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x52a866…
05-01 09:08:06	Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0xd6bf27…
04-30 22:36:38	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x95d50e…
04-30 22:34:54	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x5ccb01…
04-30 22:08:16	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0xedc9b0…
04-30 19:36:34	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	29	2¢	$1	0xa6bf18…
04-30 18:47:46	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x64ee16…
04-30 18:40:04	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x5f4fd7…
04-30 18:28:32	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xbe5e29…
04-30 18:26:14	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x91b2b2…
04-30 18:26:00	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0x347446…
04-30 18:23:04	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x3100fb…
04-30 15:35:32	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	SELL	70	1¢	$1	0xd4acc7…
04-30 08:39:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xfabb46…
04-30 08:23:12	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x6fc5ec…
04-30 08:06:58	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	1,500	0¢	$3	0x4e2b89…
04-30 08:01:32	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0x9ea243…
04-30 02:09:20	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	SELL	667	0¢	$2	0xdfdc7a…
04-30 02:09:08	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	SELL	333	0¢	$1	0xb2cde2…
04-30 01:11:18	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	SELL	1,000	0¢	$2	0x12a112…
04-30 01:08:58	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	1,500	0¢	$4	0x73f4d2…
04-29 22:45:46	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	303	0¢	$1	0x847f84…
04-29 22:45:24	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	1,697	0¢	$5	0x059eef…
04-29 22:02:48	Will Trump say "Moon" 5+ times during astronaut greeting?	Yes	SELL	25	0¢	$0	0x48cd18…
04-29 21:55:56	Will Trump say "Moon" 5+ times during astronaut greeting?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xa706fc…
04-29 21:19:12	Will Trump say "Moon" 5+ times during astronaut greeting?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x5797fd…
04-29 14:05:06	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	29	5¢	$2	0x31bd63…
04-29 13:39:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x284305…
04-29 13:36:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x9336ba…
04-29 12:50:04	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	182	0¢	$0	0xc0f8c5…
04-29 12:50:02	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xd4cc09…
04-29 12:50:00	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xfad101…
04-29 12:32:12	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x989da5…
04-29 12:26:14	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0x180762…
04-29 12:19:32	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x09fa0e…
04-29 10:09:36	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	2,000	0¢	$4	0x6a1b58…
04-29 08:59:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xc13c5b…
04-29 08:44:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	0	11¢	$0	0x80e5af…
04-29 08:44:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0x726cbf…
04-29 08:44:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0x0882f5…
04-29 01:59:22	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	136	0¢	$0	0x44f61f…