Spiffy-Ptarmigan — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

87.9%

Resolved

Trades

320

lifetime

Volume

$2.74K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-05

last 06-26 13:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

87% 100% +$6

Other

11% 0% $-6

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 21 2026 123	15	$246	152	144	+8	open	—	03-22 10:18
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026?	6	$171	103	103	+0	open	—	04-09 19:20
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 20 2026 353	9	$121	71	71	+0	open	—	03-20 11:41
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$79	45	45	+0	open	—	05-06 15:44
will iran strike turkey in march	10	$79	71	71	+0	open	—	03-20 18:05
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 21 2026 151	3	$70	69	11	+58	open	—	03-21 16:58
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	2	$61	42	42	+0	open	—	04-15 17:40
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 19 2026 486	6	$58	90	90	+0	open	—	03-20 07:03
will any european country expel an israeli ambassador by march 31	5	$52	339	339	+0	open	—	03-12 01:09
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	7	$51	110	86	+24	open	—	03-21 22:44
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in April 2026?	3	$50	31	21	+10	open	—	03-30 08:16
Will Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	2	$41	21	21	+0	open	—	03-18 00:04
Will Iran strike Spain by April 30, 2026?	2	$39	20	20	+0	open	—	04-10 19:17
will iran strike israel on march 10	3	$39	21	21	+0	open	—	03-14 08:52
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by April 26, 2026?	2	$38	20	20	+0	open	—	04-22 08:01
will iran strike israel on march 6	12	$37	38	38	+0	open	—	03-06 22:52
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 8, 2026?	6	$36	22	22	+0	open	—	04-08 00:21
houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	8	$35	35	35	+0	open	—	03-12 21:23
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?	9	$35	64	64	+0	open	—	04-13 17:32
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	2	$35	21	21	+0	open	—	04-14 15:19
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 22 2026 854	4	$34	20	20	+0	open	—	03-23 07:17
will israel conduct military action in greater beirut on march 18 2026	2	$33	18	18	+0	open	—	03-20 11:57
Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	3	$32	35	0	+35	No	+$3	05-07 20:33
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	4	$32	21	21	+0	open	—	03-21 22:52
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?	2	$32	19	19	+0	open	—	04-10 19:16
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	5	$31	36	31	+5	open	—	04-09 03:46
hezbollah military action against israel by march 20	2	$30	35	0	+35	open	—	03-18 19:02
Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026?	1	$29	58	0	+58	open	—	04-15 20:15
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	8	$28	47	40	+7	open	—	03-28 22:33
will bahrain strike iran by march 31	6	$27	143	122	+21	open	—	03-20 18:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-26 13:52:19	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xc27b6e…
06-26 13:46:24	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x8f7e9b…
06-13 16:18:27	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13 points victor wembanyama 27pt5	No	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x2e4de8…
06-13 16:17:58	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13 points stephon castle 15pt5	No	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xe37928…
06-13 06:38:16	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x892634…
05-30 11:46:46	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xa984ea…
05-30 11:46:41	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5	No	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xe43f2c…
05-30 11:43:55	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xc75758…
05-24 15:03:22	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	18	44¢	$8	0x4cf969…
05-24 14:55:52	Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid	Olympiacos B.C.	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xfaf978…
05-07 20:33:47	Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	8	94¢	$7	0xb867a5…
05-07 20:33:35	Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0x9ec31f…
05-07 20:32:07	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0x9c16f9…
05-06 15:44:40	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	33	92¢	$30	0xe8dc00…
05-06 14:56:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	7	27¢	$2	0x7ac4b3…
05-05 11:23:52	Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Real Madrid	Real Madrid	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x4ea311…
05-05 03:51:06	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0xc000a8…
05-05 03:48:52	Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x54a1af…
05-02 08:44:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x89f90d…
05-02 08:43:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x902aa9…
04-29 16:47:28	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0xc37314…
04-28 17:27:48	Valencia vs. Panathinaikos	Panathinaikos	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xfd6042…
04-22 08:01:00	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by April 26, 2026?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x796415…
04-21 03:57:26	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x553abb…
04-17 05:50:56	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by April 26, 2026?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x2887b5…
04-16 18:49:52	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	12	76¢	$9	0x83ca63…
04-16 18:49:02	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xe793d9…
04-15 20:15:28	Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	51¢	$29	0xa77c6d…
04-15 20:14:30	Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	38¢	$3	0x9ba986…
04-15 19:01:28	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	No	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x0d483b…
04-15 18:26:52	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	BUY	24	65¢	$15	0x84d29d…
04-15 17:43:44	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	No	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x5ba184…
04-15 17:40:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	42	73¢	$31	0xb49e4e…
04-14 19:50:22	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	42	71¢	$30	0x15ab38…
04-14 19:47:58	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	SELL	12	65¢	$7	0x50369b…
04-14 15:19:43	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xf38624…
04-14 13:57:49	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x07a8ae…
04-13 17:33:03	Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xd279de…
04-13 17:32:17	Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x0ca3ad…
04-12 21:04:35	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	67¢	$10	0x546518…
04-12 21:04:09	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	68¢	$14	0x96af82…
04-12 15:06:03	Will Iran strike Syria by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xfac9c1…
04-12 15:05:15	Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	18¢	$2	0x51ace1…
04-12 15:04:07	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x8f3ba5…
04-12 15:00:49	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	No	SELL	4	82¢	$3	0xe79247…
04-10 21:05:59	will hezbollah disarm by april 30 343	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x3aeb7a…
04-10 19:23:39	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 12, 2026?	No	BUY	16	88¢	$14	0xe00309…
04-10 19:19:09	Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	67¢	$2	0x9532b5…
04-10 19:17:11	Will Iran strike Spain by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x7a3a4d…
04-10 19:16:43	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xc46e79…
04-10 11:10:21	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	69¢	$12	0x86ddbc…
04-10 11:05:47	Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	50¢	$3	0xcc9d8f…
04-10 06:26:25	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	No	SELL	8	89¢	$7	0xe895de…
04-10 06:24:39	Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x7e896f…
04-09 21:49:51	Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0xdf3101…
04-09 19:40:31	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	21¢	$8	0x3144a5…
04-09 19:20:57	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	43¢	$16	0xaa6af4…
04-09 19:20:43	Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	88	100¢	$88	0xddea25…
04-09 18:57:19	Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?	No	SELL	11	18¢	$2	0x2af062…
04-09 17:59:55	Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	89¢	$26	0xa1ea25…
04-09 17:57:55	Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?	No	BUY	11	26¢	$3	0xfe541f…
04-09 03:57:03	Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0xca8d5d…
04-09 03:54:19	Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?	No	SELL	43	6¢	$3	0x2aae77…
04-09 03:48:53	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	No	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x60f41f…
04-09 03:46:47	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x4a9431…
04-09 00:38:59	Israel military action on Damascus by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	85¢	$6	0x230398…
04-08 21:38:15	Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x2f7829…
04-08 21:32:21	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?	No	BUY	19	70¢	$13	0x9a2f11…
04-08 17:24:19	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xe188c9…
04-08 17:22:33	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xb9fdff…
04-08 17:22:27	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xc9437c…
04-08 17:21:33	Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x59893b…
04-08 17:20:41	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	60¢	$3	0x6d9a54…
04-08 16:40:53	Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	82¢	$12	0x16fd16…
04-08 16:36:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x9ecf43…
04-08 16:35:09	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	No	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x03c3ac…
04-08 13:03:53	Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?	No	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x1d2eb4…
04-08 13:02:09	Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x4883f2…
04-08 13:01:57	Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	62¢	$15	0x3e4d15…
04-08 13:00:33	Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x273fa6…
04-08 13:00:23	Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x993cfb…
04-08 12:59:11	Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x423849…
04-08 12:56:55	Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x6afcd4…
04-08 12:56:13	Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?	No	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xab86ae…
04-08 12:55:33	Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xd7343b…
04-08 12:52:11	Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0xbb1f49…
04-08 11:05:37	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	74¢	$4	0xef8d47…
04-08 09:31:51	Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x70c196…
04-08 00:21:35	Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	24¢	$1	0x7778ed…
04-07 23:08:03	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x81774c…
04-07 23:05:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	11	73¢	$8	0x692702…
04-07 23:03:55	Another EU country restricts U.S. military aircraft by April 30?	Yes	SELL	9	29¢	$3	0x93c720…
04-07 23:01:39	Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x684967…
04-07 23:01:05	Will Iran strike Syria by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	12¢	$1	0xf7a711…
04-07 22:59:23	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	11	25¢	$3	0x7ae655…
04-07 22:56:57	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	SELL	7	9¢	$1	0x68f674…
04-07 22:56:21	Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?	Leadership Change	SELL	16	5¢	$1	0xf904ce…
04-07 22:54:23	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	SELL	15	16¢	$2	0x0eeebb…
04-07 22:52:57	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	31	24¢	$8	0x0cad7d…
04-07 22:51:35	Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x4ea57a…