Early-People — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$154

Unrealized P&L

+$73

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

447

lifetime

Volume

$37.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$83

Open exposure

$144

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-29

last 06-11 01:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

56% — —

Other

37% 100% +$23

Crypto

7% 100% +$132

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	+82	$50	67¢	$55	+$5	06-09 20:20
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	+98	$50	52¢	$51	+$1	06-08 01:32
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	-150	$-103	25¢	$-37	+$66	05-30 07:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
next thai prime minister chosen by march 31	79	$5.4K	6,692	6,266	+426	open	—	03-06 13:06
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	2	$3.5K	1,796	1,796	+0	open	—	02-08 02:30
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	6	$3.0K	2,830	2,830	+0	open	—	02-13 08:55
will trump visit china by march 31	20	$1.7K	1,218	1,218	+0	open	—	03-23 10:13
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	11	$1.6K	4,718	4,718	+0	open	—	04-13 00:40
peoples bank of china rate cut by march 31	59	$1.6K	5,374	5,394	-20	open	—	03-20 01:14
will the peoples party pple win fewer than 120 seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	25	$1.2K	1,242	1,242	+0	open	—	03-04 10:14
btc updown 15m 1770704100	3	$897	558	554	+4	open	—	02-10 06:27
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	2	$759	507	507	+0	open	—	04-10 00:19
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	19	$700	3,534	3,534	+0	open	—	03-25 22:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$684	729	729	+0	open	—	05-23 18:02
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	4	$661	713	713	+0	open	—	03-23 19:06
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	6	$620	526	526	+0	open	—	03-23 19:10
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	2	$603	1,663	1,663	+0	open	—	02-02 00:30
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	1	$600	667	0	+667	open	—	01-30 15:51
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	5	$568	443	443	+0	open	—	03-23 22:43
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	6	$563	958	958	+0	open	—	03-12 23:36
will wti crude oil wti hit low 85 in june 342	5	$526	359	359	+0	open	—	06-11 12:29
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	6	$500	545	545	+0	open	—	02-28 07:30
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$494	617	617	+0	open	—	02-21 00:35
will gold gc hit low 4450 by end of february 844 276 171 389 959 616 957 814 619 837	7	$465	447	447	+0	open	—	02-02 22:58
will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	9	$460	800	800	+0	open	—	03-27 00:43
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	4	$454	265	265	+0	open	—	05-04 10:43
will ldp win a majority in the 2026 japanese snap election	2	$445	267	267	+0	open	—	02-03 00:53
will gold gc hit low 4200 by end of february 891 227 734 585 416 787 933 185 752 713 424	10	$407	1,651	520	+1,131	open	—	02-10 15:04
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	2	$382	236	236	+0	open	—	02-02 00:29
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$348	323	323	+0	open	—	03-29 03:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	2	$332	579	579	+0	Down	+$132	05-13 04:02
spx opens up or down on february 2 2026	9	$315	50,589	50,589	+0	open	—	02-02 16:02
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	1	$300	462	0	+462	open	—	03-23 19:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 12:29:28	will wti crude oil wti hit low 85 in june 342	Yes	SELL	227	69¢	$156	0x734555…
06-11 07:42:27	will wti crude oil wti hit low 85 in june 342	Yes	BUY	92	74¢	$68	0x68e30b…
06-11 07:41:48	will wti crude oil wti hit low 85 in june 342	Yes	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0x26f7cb…
06-11 01:46:30	btc updown 5m 1781142300	Up	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x953871…
06-10 11:29:18	will wti crude oil wti hit low 85 in june 342	Yes	SELL	132	77¢	$101	0xdb9708…
06-10 05:47:00	btc updown 5m 1781070300	Down	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0x8a6124…
06-10 05:38:07	btc updown 5m 1781069700	Up	BUY	603	4¢	$25	0xeb460d…
06-09 20:20:37	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0x7a0fe2…
06-09 13:17:15	will wti crude oil wti hit low 85 in june 342	Yes	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0x0c40d3…
06-09 05:02:54	btc updown 5m 1780981200	Up	BUY	350	29¢	$100	0xbe9125…
06-09 04:26:40	btc updown 5m 1780979100	Up	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x68e1c0…
06-09 04:23:27	btc updown 5m 1780978800	Up	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0x2ba48f…
06-09 02:20:48	btc updown 5m 1780971600	Up	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0x6abd66…
06-09 00:22:57	btc updown 5m 1780964400	Down	BUY	263	38¢	$100	0x8e7777…
06-08 01:32:12	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0x52538d…
06-04 09:41:37	btc updown 5m 1780566000	Up	BUY	80	30¢	$24	0x952185…
06-04 09:41:07	btc updown 5m 1780566000	Up	BUY	246	41¢	$100	0x6d4f30…
06-04 09:36:33	btc updown 5m 1780565700	Up	BUY	335	30¢	$100	0x2db7c5…
06-04 09:28:51	btc updown 5m 1780565100	Up	BUY	1,250	2¢	$25	0xb256c3…
06-04 09:28:43	btc updown 5m 1780565100	Up	BUY	482	5¢	$25	0xfda31d…
05-30 17:49:00	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	SELL	310	2¢	$7	0x4ed36f…
05-30 17:47:23	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	SELL	320	3¢	$11	0x2df0b3…
05-30 07:10:09	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	69¢	$103	0x10900d…
05-29 11:06:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	133	38¢	$50	0x35d15e…
05-29 11:06:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0xe60483…
05-29 11:06:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	82	39¢	$32	0x2f6a2f…
05-29 11:05:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	47	40¢	$19	0x8ccf51…
05-29 11:05:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	8	41¢	$3	0x6f22b4…
05-29 11:05:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	27	41¢	$11	0xcf2f9e…
05-29 11:04:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	89	41¢	$37	0x934281…
05-29 00:35:27	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	BUY	84	80¢	$67	0xa22e4b…
05-28 14:46:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x24b501…
05-28 14:45:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0xd6192a…
05-28 06:44:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0xe9ae4c…
05-28 04:17:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0xf41a10…
05-28 04:13:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	227	11¢	$25	0x9c2ba3…
05-27 20:36:06	JD Vance out as VP by December 31?	Yes	BUY	150	10¢	$15	0x07e4e6…
05-26 08:51:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	BUY	54	31¢	$17	0x345c64…
05-26 08:51:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	BUY	14	31¢	$4	0x55755b…
05-26 08:51:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	BUY	31	31¢	$10	0x684c52…
05-26 08:50:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	BUY	42	31¢	$13	0x416bd9…
05-26 08:50:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	BUY	58	31¢	$18	0x507b7b…
05-26 06:18:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	36¢	$36	0xcfab9a…
05-26 03:48:22	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	BUY	320	32¢	$102	0x119cf9…
05-26 03:47:54	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	BUY	310	33¢	$102	0x0fb76b…
05-23 18:02:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	179	42¢	$75	0x2ba4db…
05-13 04:02:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	SELL	579	40¢	$232	0x10816f…
05-13 04:01:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	579	17¢	$100	0xcf9f41…
05-04 10:43:10	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	265	92¢	$244	0x6ecfb9…
04-27 14:26:00	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	833	13¢	$108	0xabc499…
04-26 01:57:44	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	833	12¢	$100	0xa8d979…
04-23 00:10:22	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0xf58822…
04-21 09:00:24	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	300	2¢	$5	0x9b9dd6…
04-21 01:03:48	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0xd1b7eb…
04-19 21:00:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0xa05cb8…
04-17 01:17:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	550	56¢	$308	0xc2aeed…
04-15 07:21:02	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	0	17¢	$0	0x6ce0d3…
04-15 07:21:00	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	33	17¢	$6	0xd86de5…
04-15 07:21:00	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	267	17¢	$45	0x1a1f67…
04-15 00:49:22	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x773fe5…
04-14 16:56:46	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0x15415d…
04-14 16:45:00	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0x95bf1b…
04-13 00:40:35	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	SELL	3,413	18¢	$610	0x787bb3…
04-12 14:16:47	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	BUY	1,294	18¢	$233	0xd057cc…
04-12 14:16:15	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	BUY	700	18¢	$126	0x8bf85f…
04-12 14:15:57	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	BUY	174	17¢	$30	0x1db57f…
04-12 09:17:13	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	BUY	1,245	16¢	$200	0xb842fa…
04-10 08:12:47	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0xc68688…
04-10 06:30:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	274	36¢	$99	0x7e0eca…
04-10 06:22:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xe373a2…
04-10 06:21:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	270	37¢	$100	0x2ec77f…
04-10 06:16:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	36¢	$1	0x3fe384…
04-10 00:19:29	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	507	75¢	$380	0x48bee8…
04-10 00:19:17	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	SELL	770	13¢	$101	0xdc4da9…
04-09 00:18:37	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	507	75¢	$379	0x9dd7ff…
04-08 06:46:07	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	BUY	721	13¢	$94	0x6f7acc…
04-08 06:19:55	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	BUY	3	13¢	$0	0xac1701…
04-08 04:48:17	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	BUY	46	12¢	$6	0xbce9ca…
04-06 03:19:29	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	SELL	534	22¢	$118	0x3c21cb…
04-05 06:06:37	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	449	0¢	$1	0x968028…
04-01 12:17:55	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	449	43¢	$193	0xc2f55c…
03-31 14:01:51	Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?	Yes	SELL	217	36¢	$78	0xf4c2c1…
03-31 01:48:09	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1,200	6¢	$72	0x8a1e76…
03-31 01:46:29	jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	Yes	SELL	476	9¢	$43	0x4d8391…
03-29 14:09:48	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	SELL	324	49¢	$159	0x16635a…
03-29 03:22:34	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	BUY	534	19¢	$100	0x1bcf9c…
03-29 03:21:12	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	SELL	323	46¢	$148	0x43e38c…
03-27 14:20:27	Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?	Yes	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0xcc34e0…
03-27 14:20:11	jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	Yes	BUY	476	21¢	$100	0x3e9dff…
03-27 06:27:53	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	No	BUY	394	26¢	$102	0xb2ba8b…
03-27 06:26:05	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	No	BUY	6	26¢	$2	0x68cec1…
03-27 06:14:33	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	No	BUY	140	29¢	$41	0x46ad20…
03-27 06:08:15	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	No	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x0313a3…
03-27 06:07:39	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	No	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0xe7713b…
03-27 06:05:07	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	No	BUY	35	29¢	$10	0x0421a8…
03-27 06:02:19	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	No	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0x61fd6f…
03-27 05:57:15	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	No	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0x9c3fdb…
03-27 05:52:41	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	No	BUY	2	29¢	$1	0xa482c1…
03-27 05:51:53	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	No	BUY	111	29¢	$32	0x4e0778…
03-27 00:43:31	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	Yes	SELL	800	11¢	$88	0x1ab3cb…