Close-Octavo — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

38.7%

Resolved

Trades

329

lifetime

Volume

$11.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$34

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-17 17:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

64% — —

Other

28% — —

Tech

4% — —

Sports

3% 33% $-4

Crypto

1% 44% $-1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 51 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	30	$3.5K	3,726	3,726	+0	open	—	07-13 14:16
iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	14	$1.4K	2,323	2,323	+0	open	—	07-12 03:21
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	14	$554	1,554	1,554	+0	open	—	07-11 22:34
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	8	$426	730	730	+0	open	—	07-15 14:13
will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	5	$425	338	338	+0	open	—	07-14 11:14
will the houthis successfully target shipping by august 31 2026 20260708165455694	9	$395	422	422	+0	open	—	07-15 11:35
us charges hormuz fees by july 17 2026 20260713155039898	2	$384	217	217	+0	open	—	07-14 08:33
iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	2	$383	1,093	1,093	+0	open	—	07-11 14:41
will the us announce a blockade on iran by august 31	3	$369	602	4	+599	open	—	07-12 04:03
will wti reach 85 in july 2026	8	$368	428	428	+0	open	—	07-16 01:42
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	2	$343	234	234	+0	open	—	07-11 23:47
will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	5	$285	276	276	+0	open	—	07-16 15:00
over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	8	$276	300	300	+0	open	—	07-17 15:07
us charges hormuz fees by december 31 2026 20260713151243236	16	$256	859	859	+0	open	—	07-14 15:22
over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	7	$214	222	222	+0	open	—	07-17 15:16
over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	3	$202	136	136	+0	open	—	07-14 22:48
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	4	$156	220	220	+0	open	—	07-14 14:08
iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	12	$133	132	132	+0	open	—	07-16 00:28
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	2	$121	100	100	+0	open	—	07-17 13:57
will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026 20260715004553750	5	$114	92	92	+0	open	—	07-16 00:34
will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	3	$111	161	161	+0	open	—	07-14 21:31
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30?	1	$99	100	0	+100	open	—	04-30 14:04
will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	2	$94	100	100	+0	open	—	07-12 07:38
will the announcers say corner 22 times during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905963	5	$86	84	84	+0	open	—	07-15 07:12
over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	3	$68	329	329	+0	open	—	07-15 09:36
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970	2	$47	50	50	+0	open	—	07-17 09:55
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	2	$42	50	50	+0	open	—	07-16 09:01
iran military action against a gulf state on july 14 20260708212322939	2	$35	208	208	+0	open	—	07-14 09:48
iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	3	$30	29	29	+0	open	—	07-11 22:37
will the announcers say captain during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403322	2	$29	20	20	+0	open	—	07-17 09:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-17 17:03:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	SELL	50	22¢	$11	0x03247d…
07-17 15:16:18	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	SELL	100	79¢	$79	0x6a6645…
07-17 15:07:55	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	No	SELL	55	37¢	$20	0x8807f4…
07-17 15:02:43	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	No	SELL	25	36¢	$9	0x204ba5…
07-17 14:53:48	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	No	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x98d633…
07-17 14:43:07	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0x8b177b…
07-17 14:19:18	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	No	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0xbd93ed…
07-17 14:04:04	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	Yes	SELL	100	30¢	$30	0xaf4386…
07-17 13:57:10	Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	SELL	100	56¢	$56	0x37fa72…
07-17 13:55:31	Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0x1ea579…
07-17 13:15:57	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	Yes	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0x8a0679…
07-17 13:15:48	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	Yes	SELL	100	54¢	$54	0xdd78cb…
07-17 13:15:09	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	Yes	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0x918ee7…
07-17 12:55:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0xcb36e7…
07-17 12:25:43	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	No	SELL	100	42¢	$42	0xa6ada2…
07-17 12:24:31	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	No	BUY	100	47¢	$47	0x76c95a…
07-17 10:03:27	will the announcers say legacy during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956890	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x4c1958…
07-17 09:55:37	will the announcers say captain during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403322	Yes	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0xd5c471…
07-17 09:55:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970	Yes	SELL	50	43¢	$22	0x467277…
07-17 09:44:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x2bb46d…
07-17 09:40:43	will a goal be scored during 91 105 minute 20260716181534262	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x64a13e…
07-17 09:24:00	will a goal be scored during 91 105 minute 20260716181534262	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xd6b933…
07-17 08:54:51	will the announcers say captain during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403322	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x8f75ef…
07-16 15:00:13	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	SELL	68	32¢	$22	0xee57cc…
07-16 13:50:59	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	SELL	12	44¢	$5	0xa76260…
07-16 13:27:29	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	BUY	79	43¢	$34	0x602ca7…
07-16 09:01:38	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	50	40¢	$20	0x12fbce…
07-16 09:01:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0x2d9df0…
07-16 07:37:05	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	SELL	196	55¢	$108	0x5abc5c…
07-16 06:21:44	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	BUY	196	59¢	$116	0x6bb11b…
07-16 01:42:28	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	No	SELL	220	47¢	$103	0x758faf…
07-16 01:02:43	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	No	BUY	220	46¢	$101	0xf87087…
07-16 00:34:40	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026 20260715004553750	No	SELL	67	52¢	$35	0x5492a9…
07-16 00:28:17	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	Yes	SELL	2	21¢	$0	0xb02f60…
07-16 00:28:11	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	Yes	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x07736e…
07-15 21:47:05	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0x525cc5…
07-15 21:28:13	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	Yes	BUY	22	25¢	$5	0x55d632…
07-15 18:55:19	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	Yes	SELL	19	65¢	$13	0x94aedc…
07-15 18:39:11	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	Yes	BUY	21	64¢	$13	0x37f683…
07-15 14:13:55	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	290	19¢	$55	0x79279e…
07-15 14:11:22	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	290	18¢	$52	0x845100…
07-15 13:55:55	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	No	SELL	30	43¢	$13	0x7bb470…
07-15 13:51:40	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	No	SELL	3	43¢	$1	0x64a299…
07-15 13:50:29	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	No	BUY	34	42¢	$14	0x0485ad…
07-15 11:35:47	will the houthis successfully target shipping by august 31 2026 20260708165455694	No	SELL	110	49¢	$54	0xa2e89c…
07-15 09:36:05	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	No	SELL	329	9¢	$30	0x650e56…
07-15 08:59:40	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	Yes	SELL	34	90¢	$31	0xa9e050…
07-15 08:33:10	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	Yes	BUY	34	89¢	$31	0x058d3d…
07-15 07:32:16	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	No	BUY	109	11¢	$12	0xd9a9b2…
07-15 07:12:22	will the announcers say corner 22 times during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905963	Yes	SELL	13	51¢	$7	0x6cd6ce…
07-15 06:29:04	will the announcers say corner 22 times during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905963	Yes	SELL	58	52¢	$30	0x730693…
07-15 06:25:04	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026 20260715004553750	No	SELL	4	58¢	$2	0x9f568c…
07-15 05:00:25	will the announcers say corner 22 times during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905963	Yes	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0x558e1a…
07-15 04:47:31	will the announcers say corner 22 times during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905963	Yes	SELL	3	52¢	$2	0x3be82e…
07-15 04:40:16	will the announcers say corner 22 times during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905963	Yes	BUY	84	51¢	$43	0x1e9e47…
07-15 04:24:17	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026 20260715004553750	No	SELL	21	22¢	$5	0xfc90e4…
07-15 04:24:05	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026 20260715004553750	No	BUY	29	78¢	$23	0xd644ac…
07-15 03:10:46	trump alleges georgia foreign election interference by july 16 20260714172332153	No	SELL	22	37¢	$8	0x7dfc7b…
07-15 03:10:32	trump alleges georgia foreign election interference by july 16 20260714172332153	No	BUY	22	67¢	$14	0xbefe01…
07-15 00:39:46	will the houthis successfully target shipping by august 31 2026 20260708165455694	No	BUY	110	51¢	$56	0x1497e7…
07-14 23:00:55	over 45m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325655	Yes	SELL	103	14¢	$14	0x1ec482…
07-14 22:48:07	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	No	SELL	136	73¢	$99	0x5a29ee…
07-14 22:47:40	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	No	BUY	43	75¢	$32	0xcdd66e…
07-14 21:42:25	over 45m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325655	Yes	BUY	103	13¢	$13	0x385b64…
07-14 21:37:44	will the houthis successfully target shipping by august 31 2026 20260708165455694	Yes	SELL	37	46¢	$17	0x90f690…
07-14 21:37:43	will the houthis successfully target shipping by august 31 2026 20260708165455694	Yes	SELL	50	46¢	$23	0x13e8ab…
07-14 21:37:40	will the houthis successfully target shipping by august 31 2026 20260708165455694	Yes	SELL	87	44¢	$38	0xa62e14…
07-14 21:31:55	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	Yes	SELL	161	31¢	$50	0xd6fa4c…
07-14 18:06:01	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	SELL	12	30¢	$4	0x914dc8…
07-14 16:23:01	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	9	29¢	$3	0xd55c58…
07-14 16:23:01	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x89c91c…
07-14 16:17:40	will the houthis successfully target shipping by august 31 2026 20260708165455694	Yes	SELL	50	42¢	$21	0xa33a60…
07-14 16:17:16	will the houthis successfully target shipping by august 31 2026 20260708165455694	Yes	BUY	99	47¢	$46	0x31f5a4…
07-14 16:16:47	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	Yes	BUY	51	37¢	$19	0xa75832…
07-14 15:22:46	us charges hormuz fees by december 31 2026 20260713151243236	Yes	SELL	38	8¢	$3	0x04e80a…
07-14 15:22:40	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	Yes	SELL	81	5¢	$4	0xe3e51c…
07-14 15:22:34	us charges hormuz fees by august 31 2026 20260713151243234	Yes	SELL	81	5¢	$4	0x883160…
07-14 15:20:50	us charges hormuz fees by december 31 2026 20260713151243236	Yes	SELL	19	9¢	$2	0x5bec5b…
07-14 15:19:11	us charges hormuz fees by december 31 2026 20260713151243236	Yes	SELL	29	9¢	$3	0xa81fb9…
07-14 15:17:16	us charges hormuz fees by december 31 2026 20260713151243236	Yes	SELL	43	9¢	$4	0x988ebc…
07-14 15:15:37	us charges hormuz fees by december 31 2026 20260713151243236	Yes	SELL	65	9¢	$6	0x23ce93…
07-14 15:12:40	us charges hormuz fees by december 31 2026 20260713151243236	Yes	SELL	97	8¢	$8	0x2f3d63…
07-14 15:09:17	us charges hormuz fees by december 31 2026 20260713151243236	Yes	SELL	146	7¢	$10	0xf41de8…
07-14 15:08:23	us charges hormuz fees by december 31 2026 20260713151243236	Yes	SELL	68	7¢	$5	0xd33be4…
07-14 15:07:55	us charges hormuz fees by december 31 2026 20260713151243236	Yes	SELL	253	7¢	$18	0x0d8e6a…
07-14 15:05:19	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	Yes	BUY	81	6¢	$5	0x642c86…
07-14 15:05:10	us charges hormuz fees by december 31 2026 20260713151243236	Yes	BUY	185	17¢	$31	0x8b635b…
07-14 15:04:56	us charges hormuz fees by august 31 2026 20260713151243234	Yes	BUY	81	13¢	$11	0x2f1de7…
07-14 14:08:55	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	73	37¢	$27	0x56d5a9…
07-14 14:04:44	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	73	36¢	$26	0xb16081…
07-14 14:04:41	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	73	35¢	$26	0xc4da82…
07-14 13:44:50	us charges hormuz fees by december 31 2026 20260713151243236	Yes	SELL	45	29¢	$13	0xe9488e…
07-14 12:12:32	us charges hormuz fees by december 31 2026 20260713151243236	Yes	SELL	50	33¢	$16	0x8a4fba…
07-14 11:48:52	us charges hormuz fees by december 31 2026 20260713151243236	Yes	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x902b98…
07-14 11:19:10	us charges hormuz fees by december 31 2026 20260713151243236	Yes	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0xf62614…
07-14 11:19:10	us charges hormuz fees by december 31 2026 20260713151243236	Yes	BUY	91	32¢	$29	0xb9d7c5…
07-14 11:14:59	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	SELL	178	63¢	$112	0x1cdb74…
07-14 11:14:44	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	SELL	154	63¢	$97	0xe6bf1a…
07-14 10:55:46	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	SELL	6	63¢	$4	0xa02d37…
07-14 10:51:50	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	106	63¢	$66	0xd3dd67…