Optimistic-Maintenance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

78.2%

Resolved

Trades

282

lifetime

Volume

$483

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-07

last 05-17 20:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 52% +$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 86 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	6	$23	25	25	+0	open	—	05-15 23:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	6	$19	12	12	+0	open	—	05-16 21:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	2	$17	20	20	+0	open	—	05-16 21:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	6	$16	27	27	+0	open	—	05-16 22:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	3	$16	45	11	+33	open	—	05-15 22:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	5	$14	34	12	+22	open	—	05-15 22:43
btc updown 5m 1775603700	2	$13	17	16	+1	open	—	04-07 23:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	4	$12	15	9	+6	open	—	05-16 17:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	4	$11	9	9	+0	Down	+$5	05-13 22:04
btc updown 5m 1775946300	2	$10	11	10	+1	open	—	04-11 22:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	2	$10	16	16	+0	open	—	05-16 21:11
btc updown 5m 1775943900	2	$10	8	8	+0	open	—	04-11 21:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	6	$9	12	12	+0	open	—	05-15 22:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	8	$9	18	12	+6	open	—	05-15 22:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	4	$8	14	14	+0	open	—	05-15 22:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	2	$7	6	6	+0	open	—	05-16 22:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	5	$7	14	14	+0	open	—	05-15 22:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	2	$7	6	6	+0	open	—	05-16 17:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	3	$6	6	6	+0	open	—	05-16 21:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	2	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	05-16 17:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	6	$6	14	4	+10	open	—	05-15 21:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	2	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	05-16 19:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	2	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	05-16 21:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	1	$5	13	0	+13	open	—	05-17 20:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	05-16 22:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	2	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	05-16 21:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	2	$5	3	3	+0	Up	+$1	05-13 22:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	4	$5	5	5	+0	Down	+$1	05-13 21:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	4	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	05-16 18:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	2	$4	6	6	+0	Down	+$3	05-13 20:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-17 20:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x671335…
05-17 19:59:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x226198…
05-17 19:40:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x73ad62…
05-17 19:40:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xb01d34…
05-17 19:36:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xfda4a3…
05-17 19:24:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0xf57300…
05-17 19:23:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xe0da7b…
05-16 23:08:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x3ef74e…
05-16 22:54:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	SELL	7	11¢	$1	0x6cb258…
05-16 22:53:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x9ebbf2…
05-16 22:48:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xca259b…
05-16 22:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x9bbb7c…
05-16 22:38:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xb6ab9b…
05-16 22:33:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	SELL	6	95¢	$5	0x4e411f…
05-16 22:30:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x42d71b…
05-16 22:24:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	SELL	6	35¢	$2	0x54c928…
05-16 22:20:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x04b5b7…
05-16 22:18:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x188855…
05-16 22:18:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x2766c5…
05-16 22:14:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	SELL	14	4¢	$1	0xc7101b…
05-16 22:12:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xb51ff5…
05-16 22:11:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	SELL	6	87¢	$5	0x76c4cc…
05-16 22:11:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x900582…
05-16 22:10:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0x6f4568…
05-16 22:10:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xb81816…
05-16 22:05:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xc927f1…
05-16 22:02:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x4f49e4…
05-16 22:01:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x5fae84…
05-16 21:59:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0x934f29…
05-16 21:58:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xac2488…
05-16 21:52:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xf08854…
05-16 21:50:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xdc8dfe…
05-16 21:44:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0xe44a80…
05-16 21:43:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x7b77f1…
05-16 21:39:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	SELL	10	95¢	$9	0xb073a4…
05-16 21:39:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0x5d6bdf…
05-16 21:37:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x9393a5…
05-16 21:37:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xb9422f…
05-16 21:37:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x5a237c…
05-16 21:35:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x4c047a…
05-16 21:30:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xef61f6…
05-16 21:26:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x8e3bb2…
05-16 21:24:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	SELL	6	67¢	$4	0xc02c1a…
05-16 21:20:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x286e92…
05-16 21:20:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x797496…
05-16 21:17:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	SELL	3	80¢	$3	0x560ede…
05-16 21:15:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xa617d3…
05-16 21:11:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	SELL	16	32¢	$5	0xafbf06…
05-16 21:10:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x807462…
05-16 21:07:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xcbcb77…
05-16 21:07:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x61da41…
05-16 21:06:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x981e86…
05-16 21:02:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xc140c4…
05-16 21:00:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x2fb3e5…
05-16 20:59:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	49¢	$3	0xa908ca…
05-16 20:58:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xac76d1…
05-16 19:10:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xd4b8ea…
05-16 19:07:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x8f43e2…
05-16 19:03:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x4e80aa…
05-16 18:59:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0xfa86c0…
05-16 18:59:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xfe1734…
05-16 18:57:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	SELL	3	31¢	$1	0xafe0d6…
05-16 18:55:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xeb68f9…
05-16 18:54:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	SELL	11	11¢	$1	0xd84649…
05-16 18:53:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0x5b8893…
05-16 18:53:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x3a7dbe…
05-16 18:52:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x06e25a…
05-16 18:49:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x6339ca…
05-16 18:40:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	3	45¢	$1	0x70af3a…
05-16 18:40:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xb7896a…
05-16 18:37:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xa1e7a0…
05-16 18:33:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0x79bbcc…
05-16 18:31:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xe903ac…
05-16 18:17:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x0a99c7…
05-16 18:15:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x13ae89…
05-16 18:08:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xc7e3e9…
05-16 17:49:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0xb8d01b…
05-16 17:46:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xd492c4…
05-16 17:38:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x5f1ced…
05-16 17:38:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	SELL	7	75¢	$5	0x303e47…
05-16 17:36:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0xf1435d…
05-16 17:35:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xd8d27c…
05-16 17:34:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xa629b4…
05-16 17:32:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	SELL	3	28¢	$1	0x1fa8f0…
05-16 17:31:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xc93e33…
05-16 17:24:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x7a00ff…
05-16 17:21:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xe761a3…
05-16 17:18:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x90d3bc…
05-16 16:56:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0x033da7…
05-16 16:55:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x31f1ff…
05-16 16:50:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xf4a018…
05-16 16:48:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x5ae8ca…
05-16 16:47:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x1b63a7…
05-15 23:04:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x0e5638…
05-15 23:03:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x61d765…
05-15 23:02:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0x3373c7…
05-15 23:00:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x068903…
05-15 23:00:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0xd568bf…
05-15 23:00:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x41055f…
05-15 22:59:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x91a3a6…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xd901…8e14	132	$29.4K	9,138	05-17 20:04
(anonymous) 0x424e…263b	132	$25.1K	5,596	05-17 20:04
(anonymous) 0xba67…4727	132	$21.4K	4,400	05-17 20:04
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	131	$85.4K	3,089	05-17 20:05
(anonymous) 0x48ac…4a7e	131	$24.9K	8,519	05-17 20:04
Rash-Alternative 0xf353…6685	130	$30.6K	1,792	05-17 20:02
(anonymous) 0x4c94…ffad	130	$20.4K	7,268	05-17 20:03
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	129	$96.8K	6,013	05-17 19:59