Lucky-Impostor — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$52

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

87.2%

Resolved

Trades

177

lifetime

Volume

$974

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-19

last 06-09 17:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

63% 56% +$52

Tech

25% — —

Other

10% — —

Politics

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 110 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	2	$230	177	177	+0	open	—	06-09 17:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	2	$195	155	155	+0	Up	+$57	05-06 13:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	6	$85	50	50	+0	open	—	04-23 10:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	3	$69	104	52	+52	open	—	04-27 01:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	4	$38	52	44	+7	open	—	04-27 01:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	3	$27	34	25	+9	open	—	04-27 23:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	2	$18	16	16	+0	open	—	04-28 17:28
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	3	$17	100	100	+0	open	—	04-27 01:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	3	$16	34	0	+34	open	—	04-27 23:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	3	$16	37	31	+5	open	—	04-27 23:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	3	$14	29	9	+20	open	—	04-27 01:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	3	$13	15	12	+3	open	—	04-27 22:53
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	04-22 12:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	2	$10	18	18	+0	Up	$-2	05-08 20:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	3	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	04-22 12:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	3	$9	11	7	+4	open	—	04-27 01:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	2	$8	7	7	+0	Up	+$2	05-08 22:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	2	$8	9	9	+0	Up	+$1	05-08 22:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	4	$7	60	9	+51	open	—	04-27 02:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	3	$7	127	0	+127	open	—	04-27 02:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	6	$7	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	05-07 23:43
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	2	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	04-22 12:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	2	$6	7	7	+0	Up	$-1	05-08 20:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	2	$6	20	0	+20	open	—	04-28 17:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	2	$6	53	0	+53	open	—	04-27 02:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	2	$6	29	0	+29	open	—	04-27 23:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	2	$6	6	6	+0	open	—	04-27 02:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	5	$5	6	6	+0	Down	$-1	05-07 23:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	1	$5	14	0	+14	open	—	04-27 23:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	3	$5	7	4	+3	open	—	04-27 02:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 17:54:03	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	177	100¢	$177	0x6588f3…
05-31 19:02:25	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	177	30¢	$53	0x9fd032…
05-08 23:14:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	SELL	8	15¢	$1	0x53bdd6…
05-08 23:13:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	43¢	$3	0x7e3120…
05-08 22:49:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0xc35cd1…
05-08 22:48:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x8ab641…
05-08 22:44:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	SELL	9	52¢	$5	0x9ef963…
05-08 22:43:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	39¢	$3	0x712ad4…
05-08 21:59:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	6	5¢	$0	0x6a9a48…
05-08 21:57:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0xc60dbe…
05-08 20:34:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	SELL	7	38¢	$3	0x1105b8…
05-08 20:33:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x87630e…
05-08 20:04:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	SELL	18	24¢	$4	0xb3bbe1…
05-08 20:03:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	18	33¢	$6	0xec470a…
05-08 11:10:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	38¢	$1	0x18cc2c…
05-08 11:10:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xf70918…
05-08 11:08:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xf3a7cb…
05-08 11:08:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x4820ef…
05-08 10:37:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x91cac4…
05-08 10:37:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xbd5698…
05-08 10:30:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	SELL	2	73¢	$1	0x928ccb…
05-08 10:30:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x10e9d8…
05-08 10:25:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0xa23d56…
05-08 10:25:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x7c6aab…
05-07 23:43:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0x851c87…
05-07 23:42:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x154355…
05-07 23:42:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0x9a2d93…
05-07 23:41:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xcdf110…
05-07 23:41:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x53bdeb…
05-07 23:41:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xbff4d4…
05-07 23:32:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0xb7cc4c…
05-07 23:32:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0x45fedf…
05-07 23:31:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x5a2ed5…
05-07 23:31:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x0b7433…
05-07 23:30:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x318416…
05-07 23:03:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x9d6f75…
05-07 22:27:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	27¢	$1	0xbb5ce7…
05-07 22:25:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xcffabe…
05-07 22:24:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x2664c2…
05-07 22:21:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xe9f7f0…
05-07 22:21:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x780752…
05-06 13:43:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	155	81¢	$126	0x3da61e…
05-06 13:42:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	155	45¢	$69	0x877b30…
05-06 13:38:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x03584c…
04-28 17:38:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	SELL	3	51¢	$2	0xa70d28…
04-28 17:35:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xeb3367…
04-28 17:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	SELL	16	85¢	$13	0xb104f4…
04-28 17:26:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xf1465a…
04-28 17:21:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xe31e37…
04-28 17:20:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x6a28db…
04-28 17:16:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x302661…
04-28 17:15:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x34eb42…
04-27 23:27:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x7a061a…
04-27 23:24:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x085fd2…
04-27 23:22:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x3495ce…
04-27 23:20:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	13	47¢	$6	0x355981…
04-27 23:17:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x9f2435…
04-27 23:15:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x86d91c…
04-27 23:14:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0xece40a…
04-27 23:12:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	SELL	25	45¢	$11	0xc8dbf0…
04-27 23:10:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xd78a94…
04-27 23:08:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x5f833b…
04-27 23:04:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x66a326…
04-27 23:03:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	SELL	31	31¢	$10	0x6a588b…
04-27 23:02:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x4d3069…
04-27 22:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xed1693…
04-27 22:56:00	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xd63b10…
04-27 22:53:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	SELL	12	77¢	$9	0x810a8e…
04-27 22:53:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x984639…
04-27 22:50:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0xe209c9…
04-27 22:47:06	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xaaf1a4…
04-27 22:43:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xfca1c4…
04-27 22:41:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x508777…
04-27 22:37:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xc27768…
04-27 18:01:46	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x02f376…
04-27 17:58:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x52d175…
04-27 17:53:10	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	SELL	4	19¢	$1	0x9502d2…
04-27 17:52:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0x802115…
04-27 17:51:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x140793…
04-27 17:51:46	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x445d45…
04-27 17:48:06	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	SELL	4	41¢	$1	0x1ab88d…
04-27 17:47:52	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x97dd77…
04-27 17:44:22	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xcef34a…
04-27 17:41:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x03c0d9…
04-27 17:27:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xc542ed…
04-27 15:55:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xbc9ec4…
04-27 15:53:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	SELL	4	57¢	$2	0x5ea61a…
04-27 15:52:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xc6c9d2…
04-27 15:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	SELL	4	32¢	$1	0xcb7d71…
04-27 15:36:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x06e331…
04-27 15:34:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x52d690…
04-27 15:33:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x7dbca6…
04-27 15:32:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xcc3c2a…
04-27 15:29:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xdac3d6…
04-27 15:28:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xdcf616…
04-27 15:22:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	SELL	0	93¢	$0	0x54bf79…
04-27 15:22:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	SELL	0	93¢	$0	0x74131e…
04-27 15:22:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x1e3f8e…
04-27 15:22:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xe44070…
04-27 15:22:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0xea2f04…