Elaborate-Fireplace — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

54.1%

Resolved

Trades

309

lifetime

Volume

$550

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-13

last 05-15 14:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 48% $-4

Politics

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 283 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	2	$55	36	36	+0	open	—	05-15 14:24
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	9	$17	20	19	+1	open	—	05-14 20:25
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	12	$16	18	17	+1	open	—	05-14 22:01
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	4	$15	14	14	+0	Down	+$1	05-14 02:09
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$15	12	12	+0	open	—	05-15 14:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	2	$14	9	9	+0	open	—	05-15 14:20
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	5	$11	43	9	+34	open	—	05-14 19:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	4	$11	9	9	+0	open	—	05-14 23:59
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	05-14 23:46
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	6	$10	11	10	+1	open	—	05-14 20:14
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	5	$10	10	10	+0	open	—	05-14 21:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	05-14 23:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	6	$10	30	25	+5	open	—	05-14 20:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	8	$10	30	26	+5	open	—	05-14 21:43
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	6	$9	10	10	+0	open	—	05-14 21:24
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	4	$9	11	11	+0	Up	$-3	05-13 23:09
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	5	$9	60	9	+51	open	—	05-14 20:58
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	4	$9	11	5	+5	Up	$-2	05-14 02:19
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	7	$8	12	7	+5	open	—	05-14 20:13
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	5	$7	10	9	+1	open	—	05-14 20:39
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	2	$7	5	5	+0	Down	+$2	05-14 01:34
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	6	$7	10	9	+1	open	—	05-14 20:25
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	4	$7	12	9	+2	open	—	05-14 19:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	05-14 23:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	6	$7	8	8	+0	open	—	05-14 21:26
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	3	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	05-14 18:27
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	3	$6	11	5	+6	Up	$-1	05-14 02:22
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	3	$6	11	6	+6	Up	$-1	05-14 02:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	2	$6	4	4	+0	Down	+$1	05-13 23:10
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	3	$6	5	5	+0	Up	$-0	05-13 23:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-15 14:24:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	36	84¢	$30	0xcb5d9c…
05-15 14:24:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	36	70¢	$25	0xb2b777…
05-15 14:20:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x76737c…
05-15 14:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x4384a5…
05-15 14:16:57	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	12	77¢	$10	0x5187d4…
05-15 01:14:30	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	SELL	3	71¢	$2	0x09974d…
05-15 01:13:48	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x6eac4f…
05-15 00:29:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x6ece01…
05-15 00:03:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x4070dc…
05-14 23:59:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	3	86¢	$3	0x0fce3a…
05-14 23:59:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xa3a9c2…
05-14 23:57:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	SELL	6	65¢	$4	0xc2a3db…
05-14 23:56:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x7eaafe…
05-14 23:54:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x4d5a12…
05-14 23:52:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xdf9837…
05-14 23:46:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x857e13…
05-14 23:45:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x1ba9c9…
05-14 23:39:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x409c76…
05-14 23:39:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xe60703…
05-14 23:31:04	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x60b15d…
05-14 23:30:29	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xae2f36…
05-14 22:21:39	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0xb5c662…
05-14 22:01:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe32d54…
05-14 22:00:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0x7871b0…
05-14 22:00:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x75f92b…
05-14 21:57:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x67281b…
05-14 21:56:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x27a2cd…
05-14 21:55:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	22¢	$1	0x0a5bb7…
05-14 21:55:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	1	69¢	$1	0xf22703…
05-14 21:55:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x70d0be…
05-14 21:55:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x5f037b…
05-14 21:55:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	4	38¢	$2	0xaf1f2f…
05-14 21:54:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	1	39¢	$0	0xa96e47…
05-14 21:54:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x151be6…
05-14 21:52:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	4	33¢	$1	0x086248…
05-14 21:52:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xe80c83…
05-14 21:49:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0x060166…
05-14 21:45:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x994a5e…
05-14 21:43:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	23¢	$0	0x2bc75f…
05-14 21:43:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	9	8¢	$1	0x278be1…
05-14 21:42:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xb508b0…
05-14 21:42:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x52c1fd…
05-14 21:41:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	2	26¢	$1	0x39320e…
05-14 21:40:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	27	1¢	$0	0xfc8133…
05-14 21:40:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	10	13¢	$1	0x00ecaa…
05-14 21:40:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xe8dcca…
05-14 21:40:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xa48325…
05-14 21:34:09	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	1	55¢	$1	0x3da33e…
05-14 21:33:27	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	4	41¢	$2	0xf2e563…
05-14 21:33:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	4	19¢	$1	0x624827…
05-14 21:32:45	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x9ca550…
05-14 21:32:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	1	42¢	$0	0xb62aa4…
05-14 21:31:57	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x9c1bde…
05-14 21:31:00	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0xf6c11f…
05-14 21:30:28	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xf70145…
05-14 21:30:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	4	54¢	$2	0x3d995d…
05-14 21:29:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x23389d…
05-14 21:27:26	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	11	2¢	$0	0xdb7002…
05-14 21:27:16	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x1b80e7…
05-14 21:26:42	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xfa06d8…
05-14 21:26:42	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x5384ce…
05-14 21:26:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	1	39¢	$0	0x8c825b…
05-14 21:26:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	1	44¢	$1	0x8348eb…
05-14 21:25:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0x222694…
05-14 21:25:57	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	4	35¢	$1	0xae57b4…
05-14 21:25:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x5cce6a…
05-14 21:25:13	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xd4b0e6…
05-14 21:24:59	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	1	19¢	$0	0x52cdd0…
05-14 21:24:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	1	45¢	$0	0x7c4cf6…
05-14 21:22:32	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xf8d59e…
05-14 21:21:26	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	4	64¢	$3	0xe04dbd…
05-14 21:19:56	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xb20d6e…
05-14 21:17:42	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	4	41¢	$2	0xfe69e4…
05-14 21:16:58	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xb8f700…
05-14 21:16:56	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	4	40¢	$2	0xa389fa…
05-14 21:16:12	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xe26f36…
05-14 21:16:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	4	40¢	$2	0x189aed…
05-14 21:15:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x8ccd30…
05-14 21:13:12	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	1	34¢	$0	0x0d42f5…
05-14 21:10:57	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	4	13¢	$1	0x0e8850…
05-14 21:10:14	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xe6973a…
05-14 21:10:14	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x6b11c2…
05-14 21:08:43	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0x60aee3…
05-14 21:02:42	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0x4257b0…
05-14 21:01:57	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x58f50a…
05-14 21:01:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0xef975a…
05-14 21:00:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xf09406…
05-14 21:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xe51a0b…
05-14 20:58:13	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xc39447…
05-14 20:56:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x2abf5a…
05-14 20:55:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	SELL	27	2¢	$0	0x2a39a8…
05-14 20:55:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x3b7094…
05-14 20:55:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0xbdb452…
05-14 20:53:41	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	SELL	4	5¢	$0	0xe44de2…
05-14 20:48:26	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x493dd4…
05-14 20:47:11	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0x4093bd…
05-14 20:46:57	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0x83fe31…
05-14 20:45:28	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x347c0e…
05-14 20:44:44	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x268aa8…
05-14 20:43:06	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	3	15¢	$0	0x96875c…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0x20d2…e29d	95	$7.51K	878	05-15 14:23
(anonymous) 0x5d4a…55d3	93	$2.66K	637	05-15 14:23
(anonymous) 0x75cc…3ce1	92	$7.50K	1,196	05-15 14:24
Weird-Peak 0x9f5f…a008	91	$17.5K	1,903	05-15 14:20
Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4	89	$33.3K	2,015	05-15 14:24
Agile-Spacing 0xce25…7fdc	89	$28.1K	2,156	05-15 14:24
Slim-Pond 0x19cd…af9a	84	$3.28K	1,267	05-15 14:19
(anonymous) 0x5bd8…1ab1	84	$575	290	05-15 14:23