Cautious-Eyebrow — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$44

Unrealized P&L

+$19

Hit rate

30.7%

Resolved

Trades

1,502

lifetime

Volume

$30.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

$355

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-27

last 06-10 23:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

77% 67% +$25

Other

18% 0% $-70

Crypto

3% — —

Tech

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

64 active days in 12wk • peak 57 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?	No	-250	$-240	94¢	$-236	+$4	06-07 19:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	+70	$58	84¢	$59	+$1	06-10 23:23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	+40	$26	94¢	$37	+$11	05-31 15:03
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	+30	$19	76¢	$23	+$4	06-06 14:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	53	$3.1K	2,626	2,626	+0	open	—	03-21 18:44
will iran strike israel on march 10	16	$1.3K	771	771	+0	open	—	03-13 21:34
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	16	$709	702	702	+0	open	—	04-08 09:51
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	18	$632	624	624	+0	open	—	03-07 15:54
houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	18	$605	651	651	+0	open	—	04-04 17:54
will uae strike iran by march 31	9	$522	448	448	+0	open	—	03-08 13:00
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 22 2026 854	7	$518	445	345	+100	open	—	03-26 22:32
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	15	$491	338	338	+0	open	—	03-08 19:16
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	3	$446	250	250	+0	open	—	03-08 22:45
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	8	$426	247	247	+0	open	—	04-05 08:59
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	31	$415	723	723	+0	open	—	03-08 05:03
will iran strike israel on march 6	15	$380	997	331	+666	open	—	03-10 21:42
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 20 2026 353	3	$335	177	177	+0	open	—	03-21 22:51
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	6	$308	198	198	+0	open	—	03-31 21:54
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	6	$304	208	208	+0	open	—	03-27 13:06
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	11	$303	260	250	+10	open	—	04-16 14:55
will the number of israel rocket alerts since operation lions roar be at least 20000 by march 20 423	8	$301	241	241	+0	open	—	03-20 12:38
khamenei seen in public by march 14 884 469 913	4	$300	208	108	+100	open	—	03-01 00:25
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	17	$291	360	150	+210	open	—	04-22 00:00
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	7	$286	465	465	+0	open	—	03-03 16:37
iran closes its airspace by june 15	3	$283	174	174	+0	open	—	06-07 21:27
us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	7	$280	240	240	+0	open	—	03-07 17:36
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	10	$279	390	390	+0	open	—	04-22 17:47
iranhezbollah strike on cyprus by march 7	5	$268	246	246	+0	open	—	03-03 14:29
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	4	$260	148	148	+0	open	—	03-08 22:09
will israel strike gaza on march 8 2026	8	$258	151	151	+0	open	—	03-08 21:39
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 15 611 421	9	$253	158	158	+0	open	—	03-08 21:12
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 19 2026 486	22	$251	8,371	8,371	+0	open	—	03-25 14:45
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 31	13	$250	387	386	+0	open	—	03-31 06:59
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	5	$248	161	161	+0	open	—	02-28 23:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 23:23:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xbc8288…
06-10 12:18:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0x37c321…
06-09 15:55:15	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xc92681…
06-09 10:55:13	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	70	77¢	$54	0x9b92cd…
06-08 11:21:27	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	101	24¢	$24	0x676885…
06-07 21:27:00	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	174	94¢	$163	0xb35f93…
06-07 21:26:48	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	52	93¢	$49	0x18be47…
06-07 20:51:21	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	21	34¢	$7	0x31c5de…
06-07 20:16:33	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	52	57¢	$30	0x5cf1ad…
06-07 19:29:45	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	80	67¢	$54	0x0923d9…
06-07 19:29:09	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x5d815f…
06-07 19:29:00	Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?	No	SELL	69	95¢	$66	0xc6ef37…
06-07 19:14:13	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0xef0dc9…
06-07 19:13:57	Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?	No	SELL	69	95¢	$66	0x2f6098…
06-07 19:03:49	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	98	72¢	$70	0xa02bc4…
06-07 09:04:55	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x1eaf5d…
06-07 08:27:21	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	No	SELL	85	99¢	$84	0x26d12e…
06-06 21:36:51	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	26	85¢	$22	0xdcdcc9…
06-06 20:36:09	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x86bb5e…
06-06 18:32:34	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	0	85¢	$0	0xa92db8…
06-06 18:31:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	0	85¢	$0	0xef154a…
06-06 18:10:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x8730cb…
06-06 14:25:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	63¢	$19	0xd9a814…
06-06 14:23:37	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	60	90¢	$54	0x90cb7f…
06-06 14:21:16	Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xe63663…
06-06 02:57:16	Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?	No	SELL	110	97¢	$106	0x7f88ab…
06-03 20:15:07	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	No	BUY	25	91¢	$23	0x263d50…
06-03 20:14:06	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	24	72¢	$17	0x63d2e1…
06-03 20:05:54	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 3 569 213	No	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0xde98e8…
06-03 08:28:02	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?	No	BUY	7	80¢	$6	0x99b46b…
06-01 19:13:17	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	No	BUY	27	39¢	$11	0x0c7973…
06-01 16:23:17	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0xb5177f…
06-01 15:50:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	80	77¢	$62	0xf955e8…
06-01 15:38:16	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	No	BUY	80	53¢	$42	0x5eb410…
05-31 15:03:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	40	66¢	$26	0x324164…
05-30 19:41:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	67	97¢	$66	0x68bea1…
05-29 11:14:56	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	30	74¢	$22	0xb966fd…
05-29 10:57:47	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	BUY	40	58¢	$23	0x575144…
05-27 16:53:32	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	18	70¢	$13	0xa29b30…
05-26 11:02:55	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0xdd9a54…
05-26 08:29:04	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	Yes	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0xb64f26…
05-24 20:02:10	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x3ef5b9…
05-16 17:11:37	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x218dbc…
05-16 17:11:35	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	12	4¢	$0	0x5f8aa9…
05-15 09:51:23	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	12	77¢	$9	0x0b0a6a…
05-14 11:29:40	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0xa3f068…
05-14 08:10:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	70	99¢	$70	0xb96f67…
05-13 23:08:43	Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x297990…
05-13 23:03:17	Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xdf6793…
05-13 22:08:55	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xc0694e…
05-13 22:08:43	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x3df441…
05-13 22:08:41	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xead45e…
05-13 22:03:04	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x8e3d5c…
05-13 22:00:09	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x6f51f3…
05-13 21:59:25	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xc6e864…
05-13 21:59:21	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xd1237a…
05-10 21:10:31	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x3a4bda…
05-10 20:54:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0xd96170…
05-10 20:49:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0xa4f928…
05-10 20:10:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	72¢	$22	0xd169f2…
05-10 19:46:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	37	65¢	$24	0x6a3ea3…
05-08 12:51:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	70	80¢	$56	0x0155c4…
05-08 02:42:13	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	SELL	120	21¢	$25	0xaeada4…
05-07 22:54:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	31	34¢	$11	0xe0b79a…
05-07 22:46:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	12	34¢	$4	0x66585b…
05-07 22:30:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	7	34¢	$2	0x0e5c61…
05-07 22:07:33	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	50	7¢	$3	0x58e307…
05-07 21:32:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	40	27¢	$11	0x83a89e…
05-07 21:31:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	38	15¢	$6	0x0c014e…
05-07 21:30:53	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0xbe4c77…
05-07 21:30:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0xeb48dc…
05-07 21:30:43	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0xea9309…
05-07 21:30:29	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0x8d708f…
05-07 21:29:01	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x2be67a…
05-07 19:02:31	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	80	15¢	$12	0x208b3e…
05-07 19:02:07	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0x414b6a…
05-06 19:57:53	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	No	BUY	15	85¢	$13	0x9279dc…
05-06 19:57:45	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	No	BUY	55	85¢	$47	0x1b138f…
05-06 12:24:30	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	28	20¢	$6	0x31ddc1…
05-06 12:20:12	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	2	20¢	$0	0x42136f…
05-06 11:42:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	80	26¢	$21	0xde293e…
05-06 11:31:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	70	3¢	$2	0x86444a…
05-05 15:42:26	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	30	38¢	$11	0xa985ce…
05-04 22:30:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	70	27¢	$19	0x924042…
05-04 22:30:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	54	50¢	$27	0xa91a57…
05-04 22:30:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	26	50¢	$13	0x09dfa1…
04-30 12:58:52	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by May 31?	No	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0xb713dc…
04-29 13:42:12	Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by April 30?	No	SELL	60	99¢	$59	0x06398a…
04-28 18:04:44	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by May 31?	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xff1963…
04-28 16:35:46	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by May 31?	No	BUY	9	66¢	$6	0x74f787…
04-28 09:39:04	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	83¢	$66	0xbece67…
04-28 08:40:26	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x37e5a5…
04-26 15:48:08	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	32¢	$26	0x64d491…
04-26 02:44:08	Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	No	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x2e0126…
04-25 19:54:24	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	Yes	BUY	80	54¢	$43	0xba29f9…
04-25 19:23:48	Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 4?	Yes	SELL	53	11¢	$6	0x7ce7c9…
04-25 19:23:24	Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 30?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x633630…
04-25 15:54:08	Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 4?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0xa50ab7…
04-25 15:45:42	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 25?	Yes	SELL	150	0¢	$1	0xf515f9…
04-25 12:13:42	Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	110	70¢	$77	0x526c69…