Bad-Crude — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$248

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

40.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$4.96K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$216

Open exposure

$245

1 position

First seen

2026-01-08

last 06-04 12:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

39% 0% $-250

Other

35% — —

Crypto

22% 100% +$2

Tech

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No		+246	$243	100¢	$245	+$2	06-04 12:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Opinion FDV above $5B one day after launch?	1	$400	409	+409	open	—	01-08 10:42
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$373	375	+375	open	—	04-01 12:41
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$351	354	+354	open	—	01-25 13:08
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	1	$280	285	+285	open	—	04-01 12:39
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	1	$268	273	+273	open	—	03-11 06:55
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$250	260	+260	Yes	$-250	05-07 07:34
Trump out as President by May 31?	1	$245	247	+247	open	—	05-07 07:33
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	1	$243	246	+246	open	—	06-04 12:15
will ethereum reach 3800 january 5 11	1	$215	216	+216	open	—	01-08 10:40
zhang youxia seen in public by february 28	1	$210	212	+212	open	—	02-24 12:18
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	1	$207	210	+210	open	—	02-05 06:08
bitcoin above 58k on june 4 2026	1	$200	202	+202	open	—	06-04 12:16
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	1	$200	201	+201	open	—	05-23 10:58
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	1	$179	183	+183	open	—	03-11 06:54
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	1	$174	178	+178	open	—	03-22 11:38
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 4-10?	1	$170	172	+172	No	+$2	05-07 07:35
donald trump of truth social posts march 6 march 13 200plus	1	$170	171	+171	open	—	03-11 06:56
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	1	$150	155	+155	open	—	02-05 06:08
will bnb dip to 300 in march	1	$150	153	+153	open	—	03-11 06:54
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 5 9144	1	$140	143	+143	open	—	06-04 12:15
lol we al 2026 04 16	1	$140	157	+157	open	—	04-16 05:05
will amzn close below 210 week january 9 2026	1	$130	130	+130	open	—	01-08 10:36
bitcoin up or down on april 1 2026	1	$120	123	+123	open	—	04-01 12:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-04 12:16:15	bitcoin above 58k on june 4 2026	Yes	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0x57f24e…
06-04 12:15:30	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	246	99¢	$243	0x413eec…
06-04 12:15:03	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 5 9144	No	BUY	143	98¢	$140	0xab955b…
05-23 10:58:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	201	99¢	$200	0x67eb2e…
05-07 07:35:53	Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 4-10?	No	BUY	172	99¢	$170	0x8a53f3…
05-07 07:34:39	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	260	96¢	$250	0x29f82c…
05-07 07:33:36	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	247	99¢	$245	0x60e10e…
04-16 05:05:42	lol we al 2026 04 16	Anyone's Legend	BUY	157	89¢	$140	0xd143f6…
04-01 12:41:07	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	375	99¢	$373	0x4c33e2…
04-01 12:39:19	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	285	98¢	$280	0xc26b04…
04-01 12:34:43	bitcoin up or down on april 1 2026	Up	BUY	123	98¢	$120	0x0d9086…
03-22 11:38:49	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	178	98¢	$174	0xa900a2…
03-11 06:56:15	donald trump of truth social posts march 6 march 13 200plus	No	BUY	171	99¢	$170	0x08f5d2…
03-11 06:55:09	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	BUY	273	98¢	$268	0x67f0c8…
03-11 06:54:43	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	BUY	183	98¢	$179	0xf432cc…
03-11 06:54:01	will bnb dip to 300 in march	No	BUY	153	98¢	$150	0x49c0fe…
02-24 12:18:34	zhang youxia seen in public by february 28	No	BUY	212	99¢	$210	0x9050a0…
02-05 06:08:43	russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	No	BUY	155	97¢	$150	0xe47848…
02-05 06:08:11	Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	Yes	BUY	210	98¢	$207	0xfe7758…
01-25 13:08:06	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	354	99¢	$351	0x1962c6…
01-08 10:42:07	Opinion FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	409	98¢	$400	0xa6d4c6…
01-08 10:40:17	will ethereum reach 3800 january 5 11	No	BUY	216	100¢	$215	0x08e5c4…
01-08 10:36:35	will amzn close below 210 week january 9 2026	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x95eccd…