Unnatural-Severity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$37

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

53.3%

Resolved

Trades

201

lifetime

Volume

$461

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-04

last 05-09 06:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

93% 56% +$35

Other

4% 17% $-7

Sports

2% 25% +$9

Politics

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 68 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	4	$20	36	0	+36	open	—	05-04 05:23
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	3	$15	84	5	+78	open	—	05-04 05:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	4	$13	12	12	+0	open	—	05-04 05:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	5	$13	22	10	+12	open	—	05-04 09:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	6	$12	13	7	+6	Up	$-1	05-06 05:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	4	$11	15	10	+5	open	—	05-04 05:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	6	$11	10	9	+2	open	—	05-04 10:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	5	$11	8	8	+0	Down	+$2	05-05 07:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	2	$11	10	10	+0	open	—	05-04 05:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	1	$10	14	0	+14	Down	+$4	05-06 17:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	3	$10	13	10	+3	Up	$-1	05-06 13:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	3	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	05-04 10:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	3	$7	15	0	+15	open	—	05-04 10:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	5	$6	10	2	+8	open	—	05-04 10:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	3	$6	11	0	+11	Up	+$5	05-06 05:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	3	$6	12	0	+12	open	—	05-04 07:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	1	$6	11	0	+11	Up	+$6	05-07 17:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	4	$6	5	5	+0	Up	$-0	05-05 07:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	3	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	05-04 10:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	$-5	05-08 02:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Down	$-5	05-08 02:04
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	1	$5	56	0	+56	open	—	05-04 06:04
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	05-04 06:06
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 4, 2026?	1	$5	71	0	+71	open	—	05-04 05:36
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	05-04 05:49
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5	1	$5	9	0	+9	Under	+$4	05-05 07:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Down	$-5	05-06 12:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	4	$5	7	5	+2	open	—	05-04 10:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	2	$4	7	0	+7	Down	$-2	05-06 13:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	2	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-04 05:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-09 06:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x668848…
05-09 06:29:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xb489cd…
05-09 06:29:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	7	49¢	$3	0x614f4a…
05-08 02:08:04	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 7?	Yes	BUY	12	13¢	$1	0x64e035…
05-08 02:06:40	Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5	Under	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x462b44…
05-08 02:04:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x312a06…
05-08 02:03:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xbb6026…
05-08 02:02:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xa5fc9b…
05-08 02:02:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xc53696…
05-07 17:54:09	Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0xf3cc4f…
05-07 17:50:27	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	BUY	16	18¢	$3	0x8bbc53…
05-07 17:49:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	11	51¢	$6	0x172d1e…
05-07 17:48:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xf6ee9e…
05-07 17:48:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x2c07c5…
05-07 17:47:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0xad19df…
05-07 17:47:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0x38fe7f…
05-07 17:47:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xaa5ed6…
05-07 17:47:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xfd6385…
05-07 17:47:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x78cde3…
05-07 17:46:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x92a980…
05-07 11:19:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0xa76361…
05-07 11:16:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x90891a…
05-07 11:15:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x31d2bc…
05-07 11:15:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xdb250c…
05-07 11:15:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$1	0x772369…
05-07 06:42:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	51¢	$3	0x286e56…
05-07 06:42:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	51¢	$3	0x7bb771…
05-07 06:41:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xe5f46a…
05-07 06:41:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	73¢	$2	0x479341…
05-06 17:27:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0xa67fde…
05-06 17:26:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x4b864d…
05-06 13:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	72¢	$2	0x814b23…
05-06 13:10:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	SELL	10	29¢	$3	0xa483a3…
05-06 13:07:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x5d6630…
05-06 13:07:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x373959…
05-06 13:04:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x2f8415…
05-06 13:03:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x7a1f22…
05-06 13:03:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xedbab2…
05-06 13:03:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xfae212…
05-06 12:15:12	Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x142f6d…
05-06 12:12:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x6a3ef1…
05-06 12:11:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x7982b2…
05-06 12:10:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x36f674…
05-06 12:10:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x5bd8b1…
05-06 12:10:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x26c889…
05-06 11:17:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xe35a53…
05-06 11:16:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x643099…
05-06 11:10:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$1	0x4f376c…
05-06 11:09:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x11a3f3…
05-06 11:08:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xdcf089…
05-06 11:08:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xb126d6…
05-06 09:43:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0xb920e4…
05-06 09:43:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x57df5e…
05-06 09:43:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x2ad69e…
05-06 09:42:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xb218e2…
05-06 09:42:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xaa9315…
05-06 08:01:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x0b8b05…
05-06 08:01:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x06e892…
05-06 08:00:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x7a9c16…
05-06 08:00:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x43e2c0…
05-06 08:00:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x9d8142…
05-06 08:00:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x67b521…
05-06 07:56:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xc34735…
05-06 07:24:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x3f1729…
05-06 07:24:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x0e50ae…
05-06 07:24:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x49119d…
05-06 07:24:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x02ea2e…
05-06 07:24:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xdf9a77…
05-06 07:24:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x5f10f1…
05-06 07:24:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xadcd0d…
05-06 06:29:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xc6a6b5…
05-06 06:29:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x2c7317…
05-06 06:24:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x9a3e11…
05-06 06:24:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x7f4309…
05-06 06:02:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xf63670…
05-06 06:02:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x58d1e1…
05-06 05:57:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x0482c9…
05-06 05:56:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xd591da…
05-06 05:56:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x654543…
05-06 05:56:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xb1fddc…
05-06 05:43:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xb0e4ab…
05-06 05:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x3b2ccd…
05-06 05:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x277cd5…
05-06 05:42:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x13d508…
05-06 05:42:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x283517…
05-06 05:29:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x99bc95…
05-06 05:29:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x796135…
05-06 05:29:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x1c2bd3…
05-06 05:29:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	7	58¢	$4	0xa3f04f…
05-06 05:27:54	BNB Up or Down - May 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	SELL	3	43¢	$1	0x199146…
05-06 05:27:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x5727a6…
05-06 05:27:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x4b3071…
05-06 05:27:02	BNB Up or Down - May 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x6ecdca…
05-06 05:25:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xf9500e…
05-06 05:25:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x1d4377…
05-05 14:06:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xf00130…
05-05 14:06:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xc3fb33…
05-05 12:14:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xd15b3e…
05-05 12:14:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x37e1c0…
05-05 11:04:20	Will "Awesome" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xd5df8b…