Merry-Perfection — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

0.3%

Resolved

Trades

212

lifetime

Volume

$10.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$50

Open exposure

$45

1 position

First seen

2026-01-20

last 06-24 14:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

44% — —

Crypto

27% 100% +$0

Politics

26% 0% $-0

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch?	No		-60	$-41	74¢	$-45	$-4	06-21 05:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	8	$1.3K	637	637	+0	open	—	05-20 01:26
GTA VI released before June 2026?	8	$891	448	448	+0	open	—	05-19 01:14
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	17	$861	737	737	+0	open	—	04-27 00:52
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	8	$682	343	343	+0	open	—	05-14 15:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	6	$630	316	316	+0	open	—	05-15 04:34
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	14	$599	303	303	+0	open	—	02-07 11:24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	2	$400	201	201	+0	open	—	05-19 08:21
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	3	$390	195	195	+0	open	—	05-19 09:40
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	4	$380	190	190	+0	No	$-0	05-13 16:16
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	2	$380	190	190	+0	open	—	05-19 12:45
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$379	193	193	+0	open	—	05-20 13:56
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	4	$310	157	157	+0	open	—	05-14 09:00
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	2	$300	150	150	+0	open	—	05-12 12:56
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	7	$298	156	156	+0	open	—	02-07 11:22
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	3	$257	141	141	+0	open	—	03-24 10:52
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	3	$226	136	136	+0	open	—	05-01 09:32
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?	5	$222	111	111	+0	open	—	05-14 23:33
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	5	$200	101	101	+0	open	—	02-06 13:16
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	2	$200	100	100	+0	open	—	05-19 00:54
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	4	$174	87	87	+0	open	—	05-16 02:45
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$115	115	0	+115	open	—	05-14 15:29
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	2	$109	59	59	+0	open	—	02-05 11:33
Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch?	3	$105	57	57	+0	open	—	01-21 00:18
btc updown 5m 1774752000	1	$100	108	0	+108	open	—	03-29 02:44
Netanyahu out by May 31?	2	$92	46	46	+0	open	—	05-18 13:38
bitcoin up or down on february 9	3	$63	71	71	+0	open	—	02-09 03:54
Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026?	2	$56	28	28	+0	open	—	01-20 08:28
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?	2	$54	28	28	+0	open	—	01-25 00:29
bitcoin up or down on february 5	4	$54	32	32	+0	open	—	02-05 15:01
bitcoin up or down on march 17 2026	2	$53	33	33	+0	open	—	03-17 12:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-24 14:36:10	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	Yes	SELL	50	27¢	$14	0x9ada40…
06-21 10:39:10	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x4f1df1…
06-21 05:17:40	Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch?	No	SELL	60	69¢	$41	0x315c05…
05-20 13:56:37	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	193	98¢	$189	0x97b164…
05-20 13:20:55	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	193	99¢	$190	0x71605c…
05-20 01:26:46	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	192	99¢	$190	0xf25fe0…
05-20 00:57:43	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	193	99¢	$190	0xd91bc5…
05-19 12:45:58	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	190	100¢	$190	0x58f7b1…
05-19 12:15:38	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	190	100¢	$190	0xe1857f…
05-19 12:14:17	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	192	99¢	$190	0xc4206c…
05-19 12:05:22	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	192	99¢	$190	0xff27e8…
05-19 09:40:49	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	SELL	195	100¢	$195	0xe21faf…
05-19 09:11:32	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x65c80f…
05-19 09:11:28	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	190	100¢	$190	0xa1a5ff…
05-19 08:21:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	201	100¢	$200	0xeeaad6…
05-19 01:15:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	201	100¢	$200	0x3ee52d…
05-19 01:14:32	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	SELL	201	99¢	$200	0x26bd16…
05-19 00:55:26	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xe3570f…
05-19 00:55:21	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x4cda4b…
05-19 00:54:53	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xe78796…
05-19 00:54:53	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0x5c7173…
05-19 00:43:02	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x4a70d8…
05-19 00:40:21	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xdbc607…
05-18 13:38:56	Netanyahu out by May 31?	No	SELL	46	99¢	$46	0xc9d33b…
05-16 23:53:22	Netanyahu out by May 31?	No	BUY	46	99¢	$46	0xa39de2…
05-16 11:54:21	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x697af6…
05-16 02:45:01	Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	No	SELL	45	100¢	$45	0x824d91…
05-16 02:11:08	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xaf51b5…
05-16 02:10:38	Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x2e5aad…
05-16 01:28:24	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	SELL	146	99¢	$145	0xee2636…
05-15 12:04:34	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	146	99¢	$145	0x85fdb9…
05-15 04:34:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	125	100¢	$125	0x362254…
05-14 23:38:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0x8c1622…
05-14 23:33:40	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x2d2ea3…
05-14 15:29:07	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x6f6dae…
05-14 15:28:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x46a016…
05-14 15:28:01	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0xc57339…
05-14 15:27:31	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	SELL	90	100¢	$90	0xe1b0fe…
05-14 13:52:28	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x6cb582…
05-14 13:51:42	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x05e1ac…
05-14 13:51:30	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe0398a…
05-14 11:50:33	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x5ba671…
05-14 09:59:20	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x28b4d2…
05-14 09:56:48	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	SELL	102	100¢	$101	0xed9a4c…
05-14 09:04:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x7727dc…
05-14 09:01:30	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x8c8e74…
05-14 09:01:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x514df8…
05-14 09:00:55	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xf28277…
05-14 07:08:32	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	SELL	102	99¢	$101	0xc1b1a3…
05-14 06:54:53	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	101	100¢	$100	0xf36e5c…
05-13 23:55:26	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x379e08…
05-13 23:54:51	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x22e9d4…
05-13 23:51:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x9574de…
05-13 23:45:40	Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	No	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0x7c6da9…
05-13 16:18:24	Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	No	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0xece1b4…
05-13 16:16:35	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0xfaab38…
05-13 10:54:11	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf9fac7…
05-13 10:53:36	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa63d65…
05-13 10:52:47	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x20233d…
05-13 08:12:15	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	SELL	151	99¢	$150	0x1ba38d…
05-13 07:45:58	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf439df…
05-13 07:45:51	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	BUY	141	99¢	$140	0x82a0cb…
05-13 04:41:22	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	No	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0xa1d3d2…
05-13 04:26:05	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x622409…
05-13 04:24:08	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	152	98¢	$150	0x92df7e…
05-13 03:45:38	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	152	98¢	$150	0xa42fc5…
05-13 03:44:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0xf05575…
05-13 00:57:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x436423…
05-13 00:37:41	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	No	SELL	152	99¢	$150	0x92ddff…
05-13 00:04:33	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	No	BUY	152	99¢	$150	0xa9806c…
05-12 12:56:38	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0x66b1d1…
05-12 12:54:22	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xe9293e…
05-10 07:52:17	Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	70k	SELL	22	45¢	$10	0xca08d6…
05-07 09:35:26	Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	70k	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xc4ba2b…
05-01 09:32:02	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	SELL	136	100¢	$136	0x0bfa61…
04-30 09:38:52	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	No	BUY	34	30¢	$10	0x7859fe…
04-28 04:19:38	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	45	66¢	$30	0xa34eb4…
04-28 04:10:16	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	91	66¢	$60	0xcc2e71…
04-27 00:52:20	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$60k	SELL	46	11¢	$5	0xf4ddb4…
04-26 00:12:00	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$60k	BUY	46	22¢	$10	0x677ed3…
04-23 17:23:34	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	SELL	106	83¢	$88	0x2d60e3…
04-22 15:57:42	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x20bda0…
04-18 13:20:12	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	SELL	118	76¢	$90	0x53de84…
04-17 14:04:24	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	118	84¢	$99	0xbc1596…
04-17 14:03:24	bitcoin up or down on april 17 2026	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xd6b2fa…
04-10 01:37:33	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x0a87a6…
04-07 16:17:15	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xe0dcea…
03-29 06:22:46	btc updown 5m 1774765200	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xc82046…
03-29 06:18:34	btc updown 5m 1774764900	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x61c4b6…
03-29 06:11:40	btc updown 5m 1774764600	Up	BUY	27	38¢	$10	0xe2ef46…
03-29 06:08:40	btc updown 5m 1774764300	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xfc9e8a…
03-29 06:00:22	btc updown 5m 1774764000	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x2ce2c3…
03-29 03:10:32	btc updown 5m 1774753800	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xbeb8e9…
03-29 03:09:52	btc updown 5m 1774753500	Up	SELL	44	55¢	$24	0x63c7fe…
03-29 03:05:02	btc updown 5m 1774753500	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x93cc4b…
03-29 03:03:32	btc updown 5m 1774753500	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xd88f10…
03-29 02:58:38	btc updown 5m 1774752900	Down	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0x2d1d83…
03-29 02:57:40	btc updown 5m 1774752900	Down	SELL	18	46¢	$8	0xdf3538…
03-29 02:57:02	btc updown 5m 1774752900	Down	BUY	19	59¢	$11	0x6f7f42…
03-29 02:51:02	btc updown 5m 1774752600	Up	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0xef3f7a…