Carefree-Inauguration — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

53.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$420

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 05-17 22:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

91% 36% $-12

Politics

9% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	4	$39	616	616	+0	open	—	03-01 01:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	3	$23	15	15	+0	open	—	05-17 21:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	3	$23	14	14	+0	open	—	05-17 21:59
xrp updown 15m 1768924800	2	$22	17	17	+0	open	—	01-20 16:07
xrp updown 15m 1768855500	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	01-19 21:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	3	$18	15	8	+6	Up	$-2	05-10 20:39
btc updown 5m 1775246400	2	$17	12	11	+0	open	—	04-03 20:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	2	$15	10	10	+0	Up	+$5	05-10 12:26
xrp updown 15m 1768981500	5	$13	18	18	+0	open	—	01-21 07:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	2	$13	9	9	+0	Up	+$3	05-09 14:58
xrp updown 15m 1768927500	3	$13	20	12	+7	open	—	01-20 16:50
xrp updown 15m 1768983300	5	$12	16	15	+0	open	—	01-21 08:29
btc updown 5m 1775247300	2	$12	12	11	+0	open	—	04-03 20:17
btc updown 5m 1775247900	2	$11	9	8	+0	open	—	04-03 20:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	3	$11	16	6	+10	Up	+$0	05-09 14:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	05-17 22:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	2	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	05-17 17:43
xrp updown 15m 1768925700	2	$9	12	12	+0	open	—	01-20 16:22
btc updown 5m 1775247600	2	$9	9	9	+0	open	—	04-03 20:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	2	$8	7	7	+0	open	—	05-17 22:21
xrp updown 15m 1768923900	2	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	01-20 15:58
btc updown 5m 1775248200	2	$5	4	3	+0	open	—	04-03 20:35
xrp updown 15m 1768982400	2	$5	13	13	+0	open	—	01-21 08:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	$-5	05-10 12:24
btc updown 15m 1768815900	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	01-19 09:45
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Down	$-5	05-10 20:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	1	$5	13	0	+13	Up	$-5	05-09 14:46
btc updown 5m 1775248500	1	$5	11	0	+11	open	—	04-03 20:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	05-17 17:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	05-17 21:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-17 22:21:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	SELL	7	49¢	$3	0xfe92ba…
05-17 22:20:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x9483cb…
05-17 22:08:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xe6b3d1…
05-17 22:06:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xd89917…
05-17 21:59:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	14	94¢	$13	0xe7d5d6…
05-17 21:58:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xcefc66…
05-17 21:55:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x295d3d…
05-17 21:22:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	15	91¢	$13	0x307860…
05-17 21:20:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x124d75…
05-17 21:20:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x508fef…
05-17 21:13:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x529ff2…
05-17 17:55:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x807053…
05-17 17:43:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x14952b…
05-17 17:42:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xf00718…
05-10 20:46:01	Solana Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0xfc4c6b…
05-10 20:42:17	Solana Up or Down - May 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x6c7d6e…
05-10 20:39:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xa9888f…
05-10 20:38:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x4e67b5…
05-10 20:36:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0x4bfda4…
05-10 16:44:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x12e240…
05-10 16:39:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xa28d74…
05-10 12:50:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xa78c44…
05-10 12:47:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xf098fd…
05-10 12:45:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xe73d96…
05-10 12:41:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x586311…
05-10 12:26:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x6837f4…
05-10 12:24:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x81242d…
05-10 12:20:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xd89733…
05-09 14:58:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	SELL	9	95¢	$8	0x9452ce…
05-09 14:55:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x77a4e6…
05-09 14:46:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x5291d5…
05-09 14:44:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	8¢	$1	0x3dddf2…
05-09 14:40:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x723a6f…
05-09 14:38:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x5de032…
05-09 14:37:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0xfa96d5…
04-03 20:37:59	btc updown 5m 1775248500	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x692513…
04-03 20:35:15	btc updown 5m 1775248200	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xdc5648…
04-03 20:33:33	btc updown 5m 1775248200	Down	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xee5c68…
04-03 20:29:59	btc updown 5m 1775247900	Down	SELL	8	74¢	$6	0x98f071…
04-03 20:26:51	btc updown 5m 1775247900	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x827d04…
04-03 20:24:49	btc updown 5m 1775247600	Up	SELL	9	44¢	$4	0xca8cb1…
04-03 20:22:21	btc updown 5m 1775247600	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x963736…
04-03 20:17:33	btc updown 5m 1775247300	Down	SELL	11	63¢	$7	0x080ea1…
04-03 20:16:41	btc updown 5m 1775247300	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x2027d5…
04-03 20:06:45	btc updown 5m 1775246700	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x001263…
04-03 20:05:31	btc updown 5m 1775246400	Down	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x6398f0…
04-03 20:01:21	btc updown 5m 1775246400	Down	BUY	12	52¢	$6	0x9fad9f…
03-01 01:57:21	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	SELL	606	0¢	$2	0x228917…
03-01 00:57:13	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	606	3¢	$20	0x6d1aec…
01-21 19:35:48	xrp updown 15m 1769023800	Down	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xf18d76…
01-21 19:34:06	xrp updown 15m 1769023800	Down	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xef11b0…
01-21 08:31:24	xrp updown 15m 1768984200	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0xe539e8…
01-21 08:29:24	xrp updown 15m 1768983300	Up	SELL	7	50¢	$4	0xaf4d17…
01-21 08:21:44	xrp updown 15m 1768983300	Up	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x3acb59…
01-21 08:18:42	xrp updown 15m 1768983300	Down	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0x745614…
01-21 08:18:02	xrp updown 15m 1768983300	Down	SELL	8	40¢	$3	0x6be011…
01-21 08:16:54	xrp updown 15m 1768983300	Down	BUY	8	31¢	$3	0x6539c7…
01-21 08:14:56	xrp updown 15m 1768982400	Up	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0xa5e3b8…
01-21 08:01:34	xrp updown 15m 1768982400	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xe1c6a5…
01-21 07:58:08	xrp updown 15m 1768981500	Up	SELL	4	30¢	$1	0xd0ae29…
01-21 07:56:42	xrp updown 15m 1768981500	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xc1801d…
01-21 07:51:36	xrp updown 15m 1768981500	Down	SELL	1	54¢	$0	0xbc8066…
01-21 07:51:12	xrp updown 15m 1768981500	Down	SELL	13	45¢	$6	0x4d1d2a…
01-21 07:50:32	xrp updown 15m 1768981500	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xa65b14…
01-20 16:50:40	xrp updown 15m 1768927500	Down	BUY	7	20¢	$1	0x0c660c…
01-20 16:46:52	xrp updown 15m 1768927500	Up	SELL	12	52¢	$6	0xc3844a…
01-20 16:46:28	xrp updown 15m 1768927500	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x2aa82e…
01-20 16:37:58	xrp updown 15m 1768926600	Up	SELL	4	45¢	$2	0x9eadf7…
01-20 16:37:32	xrp updown 15m 1768926600	Up	SELL	2	36¢	$1	0x022599…
01-20 16:36:10	xrp updown 15m 1768926600	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x3a7ce7…
01-20 16:22:12	xrp updown 15m 1768925700	Down	SELL	12	41¢	$5	0xa2afaa…
01-20 16:16:22	xrp updown 15m 1768925700	Down	BUY	12	33¢	$4	0xa444a2…
01-20 16:07:24	xrp updown 15m 1768924800	Up	SELL	17	72¢	$12	0x3da6d1…
01-20 16:05:02	xrp updown 15m 1768924800	Up	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xe423cd…
01-20 15:58:18	xrp updown 15m 1768923900	Down	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x7b1291…
01-20 15:53:42	xrp updown 15m 1768923900	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x400e40…
01-20 13:48:38	xrp updown 15m 1768916700	Up	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x61d51a…
01-20 13:46:56	xrp updown 15m 1768916700	Up	BUY	0	22¢	$0	0x8b2409…
01-20 13:24:16	xrp updown 15m 1768914900	Down	SELL	8	28¢	$2	0xbcee39…
01-20 13:17:46	xrp updown 15m 1768914900	Down	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x9d7856…
01-20 10:47:04	xrp updown 15m 1768905900	Down	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x218934…
01-19 21:12:02	xrp updown 15m 1768856400	Down	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x936de0…
01-19 21:06:44	xrp updown 15m 1768856400	Down	BUY	9	13¢	$1	0x54ecb3…
01-19 21:06:40	xrp updown 15m 1768856400	Down	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x4146c9…
01-19 21:01:58	xrp updown 15m 1768855500	Down	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x0627ab…
01-19 20:57:50	xrp updown 15m 1768855500	Down	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x9b8c19…
01-19 13:08:00	btc updown 15m 1768827600	Up	SELL	4	16¢	$1	0x0a6181…
01-19 13:01:46	btc updown 15m 1768827600	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xb57c78…
01-19 10:18:28	btc updown 15m 1768817700	Down	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0x10458c…
01-19 10:16:04	btc updown 15m 1768817700	Down	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x711ccc…
01-19 10:08:48	btc updown 15m 1768816800	Up	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0xa1fc6d…
01-19 10:07:34	btc updown 15m 1768816800	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x5017cf…
01-19 09:45:50	btc updown 15m 1768815900	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x65667c…
01-17 22:06:34	btc updown 15m 1768687200	Up	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0xfaea08…
01-17 19:07:38	btc updown 15m 1768676400	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x439bee…
01-17 18:59:30	btc updown 15m 1768675500	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x421ec0…
01-17 18:54:40	btc updown 15m 1768675500	Up	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x2c67cf…
01-17 18:39:04	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0xcefdc5…
01-17 18:27:50	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x88c61f…