Vibrant-Walrus — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

100

Trades

118

lifetime

Volume

$1.17K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$48

1 position

First seen

2026-01-12

last 10-22 06:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 41 days

Categories

Other

57% 98% +$5

Politics

30% 100% +$1

Crypto

12% 100% +$1

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No		+52	$47	92¢	$48	+$0	10-22 06:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	4	$109	57	57	+0	No	+$1	08-31 21:43
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$80	40	40	+0	No	+$0	09-07 08:15
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	2	$77	38	38	+0	Yes	+$0	08-13 05:37
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	2	$61	32	32	+0	No	+$3	10-01 00:06
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	1	$47	52	0	+52	open	—	10-22 06:30
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	1	$44	44	0	+44	Yes	+$0	10-05 00:03
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	1	$44	44	0	+44	Yes	+$0	10-13 12:06
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	09-04 05:54
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	2	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	10-01 00:13
LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$1	09-10 00:41
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$39	39	0	+39	Yes	+$0	08-17 08:00
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in August?	2	$39	19	19	+0	No	+$0	08-31 20:46
untitled market 1 20260803235754057	1	$38	39	0	+39	No	+$0	08-14 02:26
Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	1	$38	38	0	+38	Yes	+$0	08-05 15:17
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$38	38	0	+38	No	+$0	08-21 18:22
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	1	$33	33	0	+33	Yes	+$0	09-22 14:11
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	1	$32	32	0	+32	Yes	+$0	09-15 23:31
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,600 on the final trading day of June 2026?	1	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	06-30 09:35
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	03-31 02:34
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$24	52	52	+0	Yes	+$1	10-19 13:40
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$22	22	0	+22	Yes	+$0	07-30 07:48
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	2	$16	8	8	+0	No	+$0	09-29 03:38
Will Germany be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$14	14	0	+14	No	+$0	05-14 00:24
will xai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	02-25 03:19
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$11	11	0	+11	Yes	+$0	05-28 22:42
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	09-13 17:35
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 meeting?	2	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	04-20 09:34
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April?	2	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	04-25 20:55
will hyperliquid hit 42 in january	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	01-23 20:05
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-07 09:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 06:30:05	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	52	91¢	$47	0xfa8ed2…
10-19 13:40:36	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	52	24¢	$12	0xd6cdfd…
10-17 21:22:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	52	23¢	$12	0x5b4e79…
10-13 12:06:52	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	99¢	$44	0x832329…
10-05 00:03:01	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0x18a755…
10-01 00:13:14	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x25b8e0…
10-01 00:06:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x6dc903…
09-30 09:51:53	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x2f252a…
09-29 03:38:53	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x117ef1…
09-25 00:21:29	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	32	92¢	$29	0xbcb862…
09-24 02:24:25	Will XRP reach $2.80 in September?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xb4d126…
09-22 14:11:55	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x7bdc35…
09-19 07:01:10	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdc5237…
09-15 23:31:03	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x7e5034…
09-13 17:35:07	Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xbd0102…
09-10 00:41:25	LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	40	98¢	$40	0xb8fa9b…
09-07 08:15:28	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0xbc7dcf…
09-05 08:44:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x2adf91…
09-04 05:54:31	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x5e9ffc…
08-31 21:43:52	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xb8a0a1…
08-31 20:46:28	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in August?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x4e59fc…
08-30 03:05:27	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in August?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xcab1ba…
08-27 14:45:51	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	19	94¢	$18	0x4464a9…
08-26 16:38:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	38	96¢	$37	0x71f971…
08-24 22:36:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8177a7…
08-24 07:38:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	38	96¢	$37	0x94a91d…
08-21 18:22:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x10cd6b…
08-21 06:28:22	Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	0¢	$0	0xa78cb9…
08-21 06:15:28	Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x06a2d7…
08-19 18:05:18	will ethereum dip to 1100 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1518ca…
08-17 08:00:19	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xe72158…
08-14 02:26:37	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	39	99¢	$38	0xe5f682…
08-13 05:37:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0x6a7c15…
08-10 04:19:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0xd30f1e…
08-05 15:17:05	Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x435201…
07-30 07:48:09	GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xc8f698…
07-29 16:43:42	will xagusd reach 68 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x380c41…
07-29 12:48:30	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5c364f…
07-27 13:56:13	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xca5e71…
07-27 08:17:54	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd79a03…
07-26 13:22:46	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbfd026…
07-26 03:58:19	will spy reach 770 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd75f8d…
07-24 13:17:46	will xagusd dip to 46 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x30ec6d…
07-23 18:52:18	will ethereum dip to 1100 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x70a67b…
07-23 10:31:30	will wti dip to 55 in july 2026 444	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xf6fa44…
07-23 01:57:06	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0d5eb0…
07-22 21:59:13	will bitcoin dip to 37pt5k in july 2026 944	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2adbca…
07-22 00:02:22	will wti reach 120 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x78aace…
06-30 09:35:59	Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,600 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x41a178…
06-27 10:04:28	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x3d6b0c…
06-26 16:56:56	will meta reach 660 in june 2026	No	BUY	4	99¢	$3	0x1b2540…
05-28 22:42:47	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xf0144c…
05-25 17:06:52	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xec3404…
05-14 00:24:33	Will Germany be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x4839b0…
05-09 10:37:56	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4520b3…
05-09 07:05:44	Will Solana dip to $30 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xf49195…
05-08 15:19:05	Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x5176fc…
05-08 02:26:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x8a629e…
05-07 12:50:04	Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd7c42e…
05-07 09:10:12	Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x052834…
05-05 19:35:36	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd11ae8…
05-05 19:20:38	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x48090b…
05-05 19:14:32	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc56cf0…
04-27 08:53:52	Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x0ab183…
04-25 20:55:40	Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb91efd…
04-23 21:22:54	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc8098f…
04-21 10:51:56	Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe07f12…
04-20 09:34:24	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe1847b…
04-19 18:51:34	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x4c12d8…
04-19 05:28:50	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x3cc0d1…
04-18 20:14:58	Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xfd0dee…
04-18 06:31:24	will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the april meeting	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x294d6c…
04-16 08:38:40	Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x639864…
04-15 20:22:40	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x47e630…
04-14 23:41:16	Will BNB dip to $100 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xc7828f…
04-13 18:03:05	Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x2a23ac…
04-05 19:20:29	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9a6966…
03-31 02:34:29	will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x443743…
03-30 22:03:37	will dogecoin reach 0pt15 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe5bef0…
03-26 10:15:05	will chainlink reach 20 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3841cd…
03-23 23:31:15	tsla above 450 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcc4b60…
03-22 12:46:41	will ethereum reach 3000 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4a3824…
03-20 07:44:29	will ethena reach 0pt32 in march	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9ef500…
03-18 11:22:23	bank of england decreases interest rates by 25 bps after march 2026 meeting 384	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5b2f3c…
03-15 19:42:11	will baidu have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa3e3eb…
03-15 10:26:21	meta above 740 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x54a010…
03-13 19:41:13	aapl above 300 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe34c7e…
03-12 03:23:19	bank of england increases interest rates after march 2026 meeting 393	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcd9553…
03-10 03:18:23	will baidu have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8fdf6a…
03-08 03:24:41	msft above 315 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa1a46f…
03-06 01:25:09	will the bank of brazil increase the selic rate after march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc444d4…
03-03 22:31:03	will chainlink reach 20 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x828dc5…
02-25 21:47:24	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x8f7003…
02-25 03:19:36	will xai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x8a6492…
02-24 04:40:38	will xrp dip to 0pt4 in february 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x77eff6…
02-22 15:41:30	will silver si hit high 170 by end of february 258 575 377	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xefa953…
02-15 09:36:33	will ethereum reach 3800 in february 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf90fe2…
02-15 03:53:03	will silver si hit high 160 by end of february 597 366 984 937	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x35a6ad…
02-13 08:39:25	meta above 840 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8111d5…
02-12 10:00:13	will gold gc hit low 3000 by end of february 957 911 432 757 792 499 213 135	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf5910e…