Messy-Decisionmaking — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

66.7%

Resolved

Trades

2,450

lifetime

Volume

$6.93K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-05

last 06-18 00:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 67% $-4

Other

0% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 561 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	50	$179	369	0	+369	open	—	05-22 06:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	39	$148	319	0	+319	open	—	05-22 06:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	42	$146	308	0	+308	open	—	05-22 06:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	32	$106	272	0	+272	open	—	05-22 07:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	23	$99	215	0	+215	open	—	05-22 04:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	22	$84	194	0	+194	open	—	05-22 04:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	21	$75	155	0	+155	open	—	05-22 08:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	22	$73	148	0	+148	open	—	05-22 04:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	16	$64	164	0	+164	open	—	05-22 04:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	15	$60	134	0	+134	open	—	05-22 01:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	21	$57	122	0	+122	open	—	05-22 05:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	7	$55	54	54	+0	open	—	05-23 20:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	15	$50	101	0	+101	open	—	05-22 05:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	12	$44	86	0	+86	open	—	05-22 08:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	13	$44	94	0	+94	open	—	05-22 09:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	14	$40	40	40	+0	open	—	05-23 09:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	13	$40	42	42	+0	open	—	05-23 00:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	11	$40	40	40	+0	open	—	05-23 04:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	12	$40	40	40	+0	open	—	05-22 21:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	9	$37	41	33	+8	open	—	05-23 14:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	7	$35	40	30	+10	open	—	05-23 09:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	9	$35	74	0	+74	open	—	05-22 05:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	10	$35	88	0	+88	open	—	05-22 09:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	10	$35	42	34	+9	open	—	05-23 20:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	11	$35	41	33	+9	open	—	05-22 19:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	10	$34	82	0	+82	open	—	05-22 09:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	9	$33	29	29	+0	open	—	05-23 16:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	10	$33	48	21	+26	open	—	05-23 03:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	12	$33	41	29	+12	open	—	05-22 20:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	7	$30	30	30	+0	open	—	05-23 11:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-18 01:07:50	btc updown 5m 1781744700	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xe11a5a…
06-18 00:58:47	btc updown 5m 1781744100	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x9d0b51…
06-18 00:52:50	btc updown 5m 1781743800	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xe567c2…
06-18 00:49:05	btc updown 5m 1781743500	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x361e8a…
06-18 00:44:29	btc updown 5m 1781743200	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xef109b…
06-18 00:38:49	btc updown 5m 1781742900	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x4f2952…
06-18 00:34:23	btc updown 5m 1781742600	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x6ddeeb…
06-18 00:18:25	btc updown 5m 1781741700	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xf45b4a…
06-18 00:04:28	btc updown 5m 1781740800	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x263272…
06-18 00:03:02	btc updown 5m 1781740800	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x8a2e4b…
06-17 13:31:40	will lebanon be a party to the us x iran memorandum of understanding 20260611230522908	Yes	BUY	9	20¢	$2	0xf6308c…
06-04 21:01:37	btc updown 15m 1780606800	Up	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0xce2068…
06-04 21:01:34	btc updown 15m 1780606800	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x524c1a…
06-04 20:49:49	btc updown 15m 1780605900	Up	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0xc7357a…
06-04 20:49:48	btc updown 15m 1780605900	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xba6719…
06-04 20:18:04	btc updown 15m 1780604100	Up	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x761904…
06-04 20:17:31	btc updown 15m 1780604100	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xe81350…
06-04 20:17:31	btc updown 15m 1780604100	Up	BUY	0	50¢	$0	0x9f4f71…
06-04 19:02:19	btc updown 15m 1780599600	Up	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x8f5136…
06-04 19:02:19	btc updown 15m 1780599600	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$3	0x100003…
06-04 19:01:54	btc updown 15m 1780599600	Up	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0xc64cac…
06-04 19:01:54	btc updown 15m 1780599600	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x5bb27c…
06-04 06:16:40	btc updown 15m 1780553700	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x3d9f0c…
06-04 06:02:33	btc updown 15m 1780552800	Down	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xb4f370…
06-04 06:02:00	btc updown 15m 1780552800	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x215735…
06-04 05:17:40	btc updown 15m 1780550100	Down	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x3f8aaa…
06-04 05:17:33	btc updown 15m 1780550100	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x1a7e03…
06-04 04:47:57	btc updown 15m 1780548300	Down	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0x18fd0e…
06-04 04:47:40	btc updown 15m 1780548300	Down	BUY	3	54¢	$2	0x4e8804…
06-04 04:47:39	btc updown 15m 1780548300	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xab0ec4…
06-04 04:32:03	btc updown 15m 1780547400	Up	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x37ca62…
06-04 04:31:39	btc updown 15m 1780547400	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x821da7…
06-04 04:19:33	btc updown 15m 1780546500	Up	SELL	3	47¢	$1	0xd983eb…
06-04 04:19:31	btc updown 15m 1780546500	Up	SELL	0	47¢	$0	0x865715…
06-04 04:19:31	btc updown 15m 1780546500	Up	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0x3ee69b…
06-04 04:19:28	btc updown 15m 1780546500	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xb7e2dd…
06-04 04:19:28	btc updown 15m 1780546500	Up	BUY	3	46¢	$2	0x76bf3f…
06-04 03:47:09	btc updown 15m 1780544700	Down	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0x8ff0c2…
06-04 03:47:07	btc updown 15m 1780544700	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x7d0f6a…
06-04 02:47:13	btc updown 15m 1780541100	Up	SELL	5	50¢	$3	0x7022f3…
06-04 02:47:09	btc updown 15m 1780541100	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0xf02754…
06-04 02:16:42	btc updown 15m 1780539300	Down	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0xfbddaa…
06-04 02:16:42	btc updown 15m 1780539300	Down	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0x5580b3…
06-04 02:16:37	btc updown 15m 1780539300	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x1a2d06…
06-04 01:18:33	btc updown 15m 1780535700	Down	SELL	1	56¢	$1	0xfc348a…
06-04 01:18:33	btc updown 15m 1780535700	Down	SELL	1	56¢	$1	0xcde0b0…
06-04 01:18:33	btc updown 15m 1780535700	Down	SELL	3	56¢	$2	0x790d8b…
06-04 01:18:30	btc updown 15m 1780535700	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xb76851…
06-04 01:04:12	btc updown 15m 1780534800	Down	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0x27bcf3…
06-04 01:04:12	btc updown 15m 1780534800	Down	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x1e90fb…
06-04 01:04:07	btc updown 15m 1780534800	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xe173ea…
06-04 01:04:07	btc updown 15m 1780534800	Down	BUY	3	47¢	$2	0x5494f1…
06-04 00:17:55	btc updown 15m 1780532100	Up	SELL	3	53¢	$2	0x9a207a…
06-04 00:17:55	btc updown 15m 1780532100	Up	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0x02031f…
06-04 00:17:52	btc updown 15m 1780532100	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x6c54c7…
06-03 23:48:46	btc updown 15m 1780530300	Down	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x1da204…
06-03 23:48:36	btc updown 15m 1780530300	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x0af5e8…
06-03 23:34:00	btc updown 15m 1780529400	Down	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0xa1bfbf…
06-03 23:33:33	btc updown 15m 1780529400	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xfe9d96…
06-03 22:49:16	btc updown 15m 1780526700	Down	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0xa0b65d…
06-03 22:49:13	btc updown 15m 1780526700	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x068e93…
06-03 19:48:04	btc updown 15m 1780515900	Up	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0xc18c1e…
06-03 19:47:58	btc updown 15m 1780515900	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x45d9a5…
06-03 19:16:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x4e125a…
06-03 19:16:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x487524…
06-03 19:03:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x5fa533…
06-03 19:03:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	SELL	0	55¢	$0	0x33873e…
06-03 19:02:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x5b0b11…
06-03 18:49:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x38acbe…
06-03 18:49:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x7dfa31…
06-03 18:34:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x1bfb3f…
06-03 18:33:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x8e6a5b…
06-03 17:02:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	50¢	$3	0xa0bfce…
06-03 17:02:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$3	0xf88901…
06-03 16:52:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Up	SELL	1	54¢	$1	0x9adb83…
06-03 16:52:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Up	SELL	4	54¢	$2	0xc32e13…
06-03 16:49:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x99cc66…
06-03 16:33:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x36bbb2…
06-03 16:33:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x179b63…
06-03 16:33:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x9ba9c6…
06-03 16:33:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x4d2014…
06-03 16:18:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x8c9d26…
06-03 16:16:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xa32782…
06-03 16:03:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x0e6cb7…
06-03 16:03:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x6c4e85…
06-03 15:49:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0xa27fd5…
06-03 15:49:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x78c8e1…
06-03 15:49:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xf256c2…
06-03 15:49:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x641225…
06-03 15:49:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x874263…
06-03 15:35:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x25d577…
06-03 15:17:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x09293c…
06-03 15:16:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xf22f50…
06-03 15:01:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xe88069…
06-03 14:34:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0xf245f6…
06-03 14:34:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0x19605e…
06-03 14:34:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x5af597…
06-03 14:32:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0xb1c968…
06-03 14:32:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xc60436…
06-03 13:49:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x235944…