Vague-Pledge — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

117

lifetime

Volume

$6.79K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$58

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-08

last 04-21 12:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

54% 0% $-1

Sports

34% — —

Crypto

9% — —

Politics

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?	8	$554	278	278	+0	No	$-0	04-18 10:46
will ethereum dip to 200 in march 2026	6	$423	212	212	+0	open	—	03-24 23:12
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals?	6	$420	210	210	+0	open	—	03-13 19:07
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?	6	$416	209	209	+0	No	$-0	04-02 00:02
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?	6	$364	182	182	+0	open	—	04-06 14:23
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga?	4	$266	133	133	+0	open	—	04-06 20:38
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	4	$252	126	126	+0	open	—	04-03 09:25
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?	4	$236	118	118	+0	open	—	02-10 20:18
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$232	116	116	+0	open	—	02-24 15:16
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$224	112	112	+0	open	—	04-14 04:35
will train dreams win best picture at the 98th academy awards 736	4	$194	97	97	+0	open	—	03-14 14:43
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$154	77	77	+0	No	$-0	03-24 16:57
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$148	74	74	+0	open	—	03-05 19:07
will baidu have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 986	2	$148	74	74	+0	open	—	03-17 02:44
will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	2	$146	73	73	+0	open	—	03-26 07:47
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$146	73	73	+0	open	—	04-13 16:01
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?	2	$145	73	73	+0	open	—	03-30 01:05
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026?	2	$140	70	70	+0	No	$-0	04-01 10:15
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$140	70	70	+0	open	—	02-09 20:57
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?	2	$136	68	68	+0	open	—	04-07 16:04
will denny mccarthy win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$136	68	68	+0	open	—	03-23 02:16
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$136	68	68	+0	open	—	03-03 08:52
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$134	67	67	+0	open	—	04-21 12:40
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$134	67	67	+0	open	—	04-05 08:00
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$132	66	66	+0	open	—	03-17 18:11
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$126	63	63	+0	open	—	02-22 21:16
will zach johnson win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$126	63	63	+0	open	—	03-26 20:44
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$124	62	62	+0	open	—	02-14 21:36
will byeong hun an win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$124	62	62	+0	open	—	03-14 01:51
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?	2	$114	57	57	+0	open	—	04-01 03:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
04-21 12:40:04	Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	67	100¢	$67	0xb5c3b1…
04-21 05:47:28	Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	67	100¢	$67	0x1fd12e…
04-20 10:26:50	Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	52	100¢	$52	0x796d1f…
04-20 04:34:54	Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0x0209d6…
04-18 10:46:54	Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0xf0376c…
04-18 08:34:38	Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x7f007f…
04-14 04:35:09	Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0x5348b3…
04-13 20:00:31	Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	51	100¢	$51	0x6cb2bb…
04-13 16:01:41	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	73	100¢	$73	0xf45ee2…
04-13 10:54:01	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	73	100¢	$73	0xe9e819…
04-12 17:37:47	Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0xb39286…
04-12 14:14:33	Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0x196740…
04-11 21:12:41	Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	68	100¢	$68	0x25323b…
04-10 14:14:11	Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	68	100¢	$68	0x9b211b…
04-08 16:49:19	Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	61	100¢	$61	0x0351ba…
04-08 15:15:21	Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	61	100¢	$61	0xc2d7e4…
04-07 16:04:11	Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	68	100¢	$68	0x17611c…
04-07 10:20:25	Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	68	100¢	$68	0xc01a61…
04-07 05:13:17	Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	65	100¢	$65	0x539358…
04-06 22:02:29	Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	65	100¢	$65	0xe4a646…
04-06 20:38:25	Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	SELL	64	100¢	$64	0x224781…
04-06 16:25:01	Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	BUY	64	100¢	$64	0x8f0b1a…
04-06 14:23:23	Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	61	100¢	$61	0x13104c…
04-06 10:06:39	Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	61	100¢	$61	0xf387fb…
04-05 08:00:51	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	67	99¢	$67	0x86600d…
04-04 23:55:49	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	67	100¢	$67	0xe417b0…
04-04 23:55:31	Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	62	100¢	$62	0x1af464…
04-04 19:38:21	Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	62	100¢	$62	0x531d64…
04-04 02:38:21	Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	74	100¢	$74	0x5e651d…
04-03 23:57:57	Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	74	100¢	$74	0x2dc44a…
04-03 09:25:03	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0x836779…
04-03 05:14:03	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0xda4042…
04-02 00:02:05	Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	64	100¢	$64	0xfb7ebf…
04-01 18:46:07	Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	64	100¢	$64	0x8ba60d…
04-01 14:33:01	Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	68	99¢	$68	0x9a7e81…
04-01 10:15:57	Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	68	100¢	$68	0xd0deea…
04-01 10:15:37	Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0x8342af…
04-01 05:53:59	Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x997ada…
04-01 03:31:17	Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	57	100¢	$57	0x0d831d…
03-31 23:14:01	Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	57	100¢	$57	0xa06529…
03-31 07:40:15	will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x05defc…
03-31 06:22:11	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?	No	SELL	56	100¢	$56	0x845962…
03-31 02:02:27	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?	No	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0xff1451…
03-30 01:05:32	Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	73	100¢	$73	0x787ffb…
03-29 21:38:36	Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	73	100¢	$73	0xec5e08…
03-26 20:44:37	will zach johnson win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	63	100¢	$63	0x7beec5…
03-26 14:16:41	will zach johnson win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	63	100¢	$63	0x09cdf5…
03-26 07:47:13	will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	No	SELL	73	100¢	$73	0xee22e9…
03-26 01:17:11	will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	No	BUY	73	100¢	$73	0x5cc9fc…
03-25 18:34:13	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	SELL	56	100¢	$56	0xc24ede…
03-25 12:01:33	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0x408cd1…
03-25 12:01:17	Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	59	100¢	$59	0x9f318d…
03-25 05:38:57	Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	59	100¢	$59	0x5896d5…
03-24 23:12:27	will ethereum dip to 200 in march 2026	No	SELL	74	100¢	$74	0x502313…
03-24 16:58:25	will ethereum dip to 200 in march 2026	No	BUY	74	100¢	$74	0x96f49e…
03-24 16:57:59	Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	77	100¢	$77	0x0b39ae…
03-24 10:26:35	Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	77	100¢	$77	0x10289f…
03-24 10:26:19	Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	76	100¢	$76	0xedc159…
03-24 03:59:25	Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	76	100¢	$76	0x6aa212…
03-24 03:59:09	will ethereum dip to 200 in march 2026	No	SELL	77	100¢	$77	0x5beb4f…
03-23 21:59:05	will ethereum dip to 200 in march 2026	No	BUY	77	100¢	$77	0xe59df3…
03-23 15:10:25	Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	SELL	69	100¢	$69	0x2259c1…
03-23 08:43:09	Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	BUY	69	100¢	$69	0x37fac4…
03-23 02:16:43	will denny mccarthy win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	68	100¢	$68	0x226996…
03-22 19:46:47	will denny mccarthy win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	68	100¢	$68	0x795a11…
03-19 01:28:43	will ethereum dip to 200 in march 2026	No	SELL	61	100¢	$61	0x4de11f…
03-18 09:45:35	will ethereum dip to 200 in march 2026	No	BUY	61	100¢	$61	0x866c9c…
03-17 18:11:11	Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	66	100¢	$66	0x95d63c…
03-17 02:45:59	Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	66	100¢	$66	0x9fd273…
03-17 02:44:49	will baidu have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 986	No	SELL	74	100¢	$74	0xf0e736…
03-16 20:32:21	will baidu have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 986	No	BUY	74	100¢	$74	0xed8adf…
03-14 14:43:29	will train dreams win best picture at the 98th academy awards 736	No	SELL	55	100¢	$55	0x364fe2…
03-14 14:23:17	will train dreams win best picture at the 98th academy awards 736	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x8c3534…
03-14 01:51:19	will byeong hun an win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	62	100¢	$62	0x0208d9…
03-13 19:08:11	will byeong hun an win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	62	100¢	$62	0x409d22…
03-13 19:07:51	Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	68	100¢	$68	0x55e11d…
03-13 12:53:37	Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	68	100¢	$68	0x75e842…
03-13 00:55:01	nba bos okc 2026 03 12	Thunder	BUY	31	75¢	$23	0x6433a3…
03-13 00:54:31	nba chi lal 2026 03 12	Bulls	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xb2dcda…
03-10 20:52:15	nba chi gsw 2026 03 10	Warriors	BUY	26	68¢	$18	0x5115fc…
03-10 20:51:45	nba mem phi 2026 03 10	76ers	BUY	43	59¢	$25	0xdd8cc8…
03-08 19:10:05	will ethereum dip to 1600 march 2 8	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd48861…
03-05 19:07:49	Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	SELL	74	100¢	$74	0x30aa06…
03-04 19:13:07	Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	BUY	74	100¢	$74	0x2d69e5…
03-03 19:38:33	nba nop lal 2026 03 03	Lakers	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0x7bae74…
03-03 08:53:39	nba bkn mia 2026 03 03	Nets	BUY	32	14¢	$4	0x74884a…
03-03 08:53:13	nba was orl 2026 03 03	Wizards	BUY	33	11¢	$4	0xffa919…
03-03 08:52:45	nba phx sac 2026 03 03	Kings	BUY	33	21¢	$7	0x2a7824…
03-03 08:52:21	Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	SELL	68	100¢	$68	0x9276bc…
03-03 01:23:11	Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	BUY	68	100¢	$68	0xa2349e…
03-01 11:10:53	will train dreams win best picture at the 98th academy awards 736	No	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0xfd30fb…
02-28 19:24:51	will train dreams win best picture at the 98th academy awards 736	No	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0x4b929b…
02-28 08:36:55	will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xa523dd…
02-28 08:36:31	will bnb reach 1200 in february	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x6c76d5…
02-27 09:36:49	Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	79	100¢	$79	0x8d0e25…
02-27 01:44:40	Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0x0af0e2…
02-27 01:44:24	Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	63	100¢	$63	0xf55954…
02-26 17:41:48	Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	63	100¢	$63	0x481428…
02-24 22:05:26	nba bos phx 2026 02 24	Celtics	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xc69594…
02-24 22:04:58	nba mia mil 2026 02 24	Bucks	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x178819…