Warm-Disparity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.08K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.9%

Resolved

184

Trades

4,250

lifetime

Volume

$544.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$128

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-13

last 08-05 22:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 100% +$861

Other

35% 99% +$157

Sports

12% 95% +$60

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

63 active days in 12wk • peak 116 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	14	$2.4K	2,400	0	+2,400	Up	+$24	05-13 06:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	26	$2.4K	2,400	0	+2,400	Up	+$24	05-13 07:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	21	$2.4K	2,400	0	+2,400	Up	+$24	05-13 05:50
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. Pisa SC end in a draw?	2	$2.4K	1,200	1,199	+1	open	—	04-25 14:55
Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw?	2	$2.4K	1,200	1,199	+1	open	—	04-25 13:32
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-25?	2	$2.4K	1,200	1,199	+1	open	—	04-25 15:25
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. AJ Auxerre end in a draw?	2	$2.3K	1,200	1,198	+2	open	—	04-25 14:57
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw?	2	$2.3K	1,200	1,197	+3	open	—	04-25 13:58
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-04-25?	2	$2.3K	1,174	1,173	+1	open	—	04-25 15:25
Will SC Preußen Münster vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?	2	$2.3K	1,200	1,197	+3	open	—	04-25 12:57
Will Karlsruher SC vs. Hannover 96 end in a draw?	2	$2.3K	1,200	1,197	+3	open	—	04-25 13:01
Will CF Pachuca vs. Pumas de la UNAM end in a draw?	4	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-26 01:14
Will Austin FC vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw?	2	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-26 02:33
Lightning vs. Canadiens	11	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-25 02:16
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-04-25?	10	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-25 23:29
LG Sakers vs. Goyang	2	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-25 07:07
Will Cúcuta Deportivo FC win on 2026-04-24?	2	$2.0K	996	995	+1	open	—	04-24 22:57
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-04-25?	2	$2.0K	1,000	999	+1	open	—	04-25 20:25
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-04-25?	2	$2.0K	1,000	999	+1	open	—	04-25 20:42
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-25?	2	$2.0K	1,000	999	+1	open	—	04-25 20:57
Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-25?	2	$2.0K	1,000	999	+1	open	—	04-25 11:39
Golden Knights vs. Utah	2	$2.0K	1,000	999	+1	open	—	04-25 03:46
Will FC Twente '65 win on 2026-04-25?	2	$2.0K	1,000	999	+1	open	—	04-25 20:55
Will Deportivo Pereira win on 2026-04-25?	2	$2.0K	1,000	999	+1	open	—	04-25 22:56
Knicks vs. Hawks	2	$1.9K	1,000	999	+1	open	—	04-26 00:10
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-04-25?	2	$1.9K	1,000	999	+1	open	—	04-25 21:54
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-04-24?	2	$1.9K	1,000	999	+1	open	—	04-24 23:55
Thunder vs. Suns	2	$1.9K	1,000	998	+2	open	—	04-25 21:41
Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-04-25?	2	$1.9K	1,000	998	+2	open	—	04-26 00:12
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-04-25?	2	$1.9K	1,000	998	+2	open	—	04-26 01:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-05 22:09:59	btc updown 5m 1785967500	Up	BUY	42	90¢	$38	0x36a4c2…
08-05 21:50:02	eth updown 5m 1785966300	Down	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0xf1694f…
08-05 20:54:59	btc updown 5m 1785963000	Up	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x3e39ad…
08-05 20:39:59	btc updown 5m 1785962100	Up	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x8cb0d1…
08-05 19:55:00	xrp updown 5m 1785959400	Up	BUY	53	99¢	$52	0xf59646…
08-05 19:30:00	btc updown 5m 1785957900	Up	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x217b9b…
08-05 10:20:00	btc updown 5m 1785924900	Down	BUY	53	99¢	$52	0x0c30f6…
08-05 10:10:11	btc updown 5m 1785924300	Down	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x7af225…
08-05 09:50:00	eth updown 5m 1785923100	Up	BUY	53	99¢	$52	0xaabed0…
08-05 08:40:00	eth updown 5m 1785918900	Down	BUY	53	99¢	$52	0xc0da3a…
08-05 08:25:03	eth updown 5m 1785918000	Up	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xe778e2…
08-05 08:25:00	xrp updown 5m 1785918000	Up	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x1a28a1…
08-05 08:05:00	eth updown 5m 1785916800	Up	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x5d431b…
08-05 07:55:00	xrp updown 5m 1785916200	Down	BUY	53	99¢	$52	0x3a61c9…
08-05 04:49:59	eth updown 5m 1785905100	Down	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x26934b…
08-05 04:00:02	eth updown 5m 1785902100	Down	BUY	53	99¢	$52	0x8ec625…
08-05 00:24:59	xrp updown 5m 1785889200	Down	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x503b6b…
08-04 19:10:03	xrp updown 5m 1785870300	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xea2e7c…
08-04 19:10:03	xrp updown 5m 1785870300	Down	BUY	48	99¢	$48	0x592983…
08-04 18:59:59	xrp updown 5m 1785869700	Down	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x164ad8…
08-04 18:45:00	eth updown 5m 1785868800	Up	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x96bf98…
08-04 13:05:02	xrp updown 5m 1785848400	Up	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x22983a…
08-04 09:39:59	xrp updown 5m 1785836100	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$29	0x7bf095…
08-04 07:25:26	eth updown 5m 1785828000	Up	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x9e8b38…
08-04 06:04:59	xrp updown 5m 1785823200	Up	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x653b1b…
08-04 05:35:02	eth updown 5m 1785821400	Up	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x957e86…
08-04 05:05:00	eth updown 5m 1785819600	Down	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x9dceaa…
08-04 01:40:03	xrp updown 5m 1785807300	Down	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x283f39…
08-03 19:09:59	eth updown 5m 1785783900	Up	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0xb4825c…
08-03 17:19:59	eth updown 5m 1785777300	Down	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x5d1261…
08-03 16:30:00	btc updown 5m 1785774300	Down	BUY	53	99¢	$52	0xc70313…
08-03 15:50:00	xrp updown 5m 1785771900	Up	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x41d47a…
08-03 14:44:59	btc updown 5m 1785768000	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x0d0bff…
08-03 06:00:00	xrp updown 5m 1785736500	Up	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xb8a489…
08-03 05:05:00	btc updown 5m 1785733200	Up	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x445b1f…
08-03 05:04:59	eth updown 5m 1785733200	Up	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x8636cd…
08-03 04:45:00	xrp updown 5m 1785732000	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x79c73f…
08-03 03:35:00	xrp updown 5m 1785727800	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x8631c0…
08-03 03:20:00	xrp updown 5m 1785726900	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xbbccb2…
08-03 02:50:11	eth updown 5m 1785725100	Down	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xdc0c87…
08-03 01:36:00	xrp updown 5m 1785720600	Up	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xbd8929…
08-02 22:20:02	eth updown 5m 1785708900	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x255055…
08-02 22:10:02	eth updown 5m 1785708300	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xedbfa4…
08-02 14:59:59	xrp updown 5m 1785682500	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x094077…
08-02 13:04:59	xrp updown 5m 1785675600	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x2555f0…
08-02 12:55:00	eth updown 5m 1785675000	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x67f915…
08-02 11:14:59	eth updown 5m 1785669000	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x7bc000…
08-02 10:30:02	eth updown 5m 1785666300	Down	BUY	36	96¢	$35	0xedb2cf…
08-02 07:10:02	xrp updown 5m 1785654300	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x29b24c…
08-02 06:55:00	eth updown 5m 1785653400	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x82bf7c…
08-02 05:15:00	btc updown 5m 1785647400	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xe02696…
08-02 03:00:00	btc updown 5m 1785639300	Down	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x4b0792…
08-01 22:59:59	btc updown 5m 1785624900	Down	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0x6d37de…
08-01 22:55:00	eth updown 5m 1785624600	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x2ec350…
08-01 22:49:59	eth updown 5m 1785624300	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x56b794…
08-01 17:00:03	btc updown 5m 1785603300	Up	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0xe3333d…
08-01 15:44:59	btc updown 5m 1785598800	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x2317cc…
08-01 15:10:20	eth updown 5m 1785596700	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x85a386…
08-01 14:10:02	eth updown 5m 1785593100	Down	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x5d9141…
08-01 13:14:59	eth updown 5m 1785589800	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x8954f8…
08-01 12:35:03	eth updown 5m 1785587400	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xd53f86…
08-01 10:55:05	eth updown 5m 1785581400	Up	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x659b0a…
08-01 03:00:00	eth updown 5m 1785552900	Down	BUY	37	94¢	$35	0xa146ef…
07-31 21:24:59	eth updown 5m 1785532800	Up	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0x9146a1…
07-31 18:04:59	eth updown 5m 1785520800	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x63aafb…
07-31 17:45:03	eth updown 5m 1785519600	Up	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x7916fc…
07-31 15:20:02	btc updown 5m 1785510900	Down	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x87e1da…
07-31 15:14:59	btc updown 5m 1785510600	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x10d9ec…
07-31 13:25:00	eth updown 5m 1785504000	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x4545f7…
07-22 06:17:18	eth updown 5m 1784700900	Up	BUY	30	13¢	$4	0x9275a1…
07-22 06:12:43	eth updown 5m 1784700600	Down	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x9f87c5…
07-20 17:32:10	btc updown 5m 1784568600	Up	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x8b1231…
07-20 00:04:13	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	24	39¢	$9	0xabad3b…
07-20 00:02:39	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	SELL	9	44¢	$4	0x08e5f4…
07-19 22:44:06	mlb stl ari 2026 07 19 spread away 2pt5	St. Louis Cardinals	BUY	19	35¢	$7	0xd6a0a7…
07-19 21:58:00	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	No	SELL	103	89¢	$92	0xf41efc…
07-19 21:43:25	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	Yes	SELL	24	11¢	$3	0xdd4781…
07-19 21:42:49	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xd78d44…
07-19 21:32:07	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	Yes	SELL	11	43¢	$5	0x9f09ff…
07-19 21:28:10	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	No	BUY	16	60¢	$9	0xc8cd39…
07-19 21:26:42	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	Yes	BUY	26	33¢	$8	0x0dd324…
07-19 21:26:37	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	Yes	BUY	4	33¢	$1	0xa4c2fb…
07-19 21:26:07	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 second half total 1pt5	Under	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xfd65c9…
07-19 21:25:33	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 extra time	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xeed226…
07-19 21:15:27	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 extra time	No	BUY	9	5¢	$0	0xf8cce6…
07-19 21:14:12	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 second half team total home 0pt5	Under	SELL	32	89¢	$28	0xb28d8f…
07-19 21:12:21	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	11	5¢	$1	0x37d101…
07-19 21:12:12	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 extra time	Yes	BUY	9	95¢	$9	0x2c4173…
07-19 21:11:49	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	No	BUY	6	44¢	$3	0x5b8501…
07-19 21:09:25	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 extra time	No	SELL	160	6¢	$10	0xde5e7a…
07-19 21:09:13	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 extra time	No	BUY	9	7¢	$1	0x8d4625…
07-19 21:08:31	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 extra time	No	BUY	13	9¢	$1	0xa544dc…
07-19 21:08:31	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 extra time	No	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x86a844…
07-19 21:08:30	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 extra time	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xadbe02…
07-19 21:08:30	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 second half team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	7	11¢	$1	0x4cfc69…
07-19 21:08:15	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 second half team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x14d559…
07-19 21:07:46	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 second half team total home 0pt5	Over	SELL	9	13¢	$1	0xaf0299…
07-19 21:06:00	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 extra time	Yes	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x538dac…
07-19 21:05:58	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 extra time	Yes	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x8a4c74…
07-19 21:05:39	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 second half total 0pt5	Over	SELL	19	28¢	$5	0x74af01…