Variable-Running — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$165

Unrealized P&L

-$160

Hit rate

69.7%

Resolved

Trades

306

lifetime

Volume

$24.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$80

Open exposure

$2.30K

3 positions

First seen

2026-03-08

last 07-10 23:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

45% 100% +$0

Politics

36% — —

Crypto

11% — —

Sports

6% 0% $-165

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	-1,400	$-938	73¢	$-1022	$-84	06-26 19:57
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	+5,896	$812	11¢	$646	$-167	07-09 07:22
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	+1,815	$544	35¢	$635	+$91	06-26 20:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
netanyahu out by march 31 854	12	$2.3K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	03-16 00:07
will the us invade iran by march 31	11	$1.5K	800	800	+0	open	—	03-29 04:55
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	3	$1.2K	600	600	+0	open	—	05-31 02:03
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	19	$1.2K	600	600	+0	open	—	03-30 01:35
ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 total 3pt5	2	$980	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-07 04:27
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$938	0	1,400	-1,400	open	—	06-26 19:57
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	9	$812	5,896	0	+5,896	open	—	07-09 07:22
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	4	$748	400	400	+0	open	—	03-28 17:52
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	4	$728	1,800	1,800	+0	open	—	04-07 00:14
cbb ucf ucla 2026 03 20	2	$640	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-20 22:23
cbb cabap kan 2026 03 20	2	$600	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	03-21 01:44
cbb hpnt ark 2026 03 21	2	$600	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	03-22 02:12
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	13	$577	300	300	+0	open	—	03-16 01:03
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	6	$544	1,815	0	+1,815	open	—	06-26 20:16
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	4	$496	600	600	+0	open	—	04-06 18:17
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	9	$433	502	502	+0	open	—	04-06 18:05
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	2	$387	200	200	+0	open	—	03-30 17:11
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	4	$380	194	194	+0	No	+$0	03-20 21:31
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	4	$377	200	200	+0	open	—	03-14 01:44
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	2	$374	200	200	+0	open	—	03-14 18:13
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	2	$366	200	200	+0	open	—	03-09 19:39
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	4	$354	200	200	+0	open	—	03-12 02:42
cbb txam hou 2026 03 21	2	$350	1,000	997	+3	open	—	03-21 01:49
will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	3	$350	200	200	+0	open	—	03-22 20:28
will the freedom movement gs win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 529	2	$348	200	200	+0	open	—	03-22 20:28
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	3	$315	164	164	+0	open	—	03-11 15:55
nba tor den 2026 03 20	4	$305	237	237	+0	open	—	03-21 03:14
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	6	$294	200	200	+0	open	—	03-24 23:45
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	18	$291	160	160	+0	open	—	04-07 19:17
Nothing Ever Happens: March	7	$280	200	200	+0	open	—	04-01 16:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-10 23:18:02	btc updown 5m 1783725300	Up	SELL	33	91¢	$30	0x576d4d…
07-10 23:17:22	btc updown 5m 1783725300	Up	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0xfa5426…
07-09 07:22:23	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	3,485	12¢	$418	0x417ebb…
06-29 19:34:02	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	54	18¢	$9	0x72464b…
06-29 19:33:59	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	53	18¢	$9	0xf75bac…
06-29 19:33:59	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	101	18¢	$18	0x2af3d4…
06-29 19:33:58	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	292	17¢	$50	0xf391be…
06-26 20:16:44	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	81	31¢	$25	0x491faf…
06-26 20:09:44	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	52	31¢	$16	0x808847…
06-26 20:09:41	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	64	31¢	$20	0xe9e5f6…
06-26 20:08:20	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1,500	18¢	$263	0x060160…
06-26 20:00:46	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	11	30¢	$3	0xc74c78…
06-26 19:58:47	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1,500	30¢	$450	0x51d184…
06-26 19:57:31	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1,250	67¢	$837	0x1c76b8…
06-25 19:40:17	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	150	67¢	$100	0xd66243…
06-19 21:18:37	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x370845…
06-06 20:59:03	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	107	28¢	$30	0xd94a33…
06-04 06:18:48	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0xf2ae7c…
06-04 02:24:18	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	Knicks	SELL	140	24¢	$34	0x706a7b…
06-03 21:28:16	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	Knicks	BUY	140	36¢	$50	0xc52120…
06-02 21:07:56	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	327	10¢	$33	0x50bb21…
05-31 02:03:12	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	520	97¢	$506	0xd95f08…
05-31 02:02:17	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	80	97¢	$78	0xfcc0d3…
05-31 01:53:57	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	600	97¢	$584	0xfa3c41…
05-30 00:01:24	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	SELL	33	12¢	$4	0x4fdf29…
05-24 04:52:56	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0x99ead7…
05-01 00:08:38	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	SELL	42	99¢	$41	0x17b231…
04-26 02:28:18	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	BUY	42	86¢	$36	0x3529c1…
04-24 19:56:34	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	138	26¢	$36	0xfed56e…
04-08 21:03:47	mlb phi sf 2026 04 08	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	70	56¢	$39	0xd4850c…
04-08 21:00:59	mlb phi sf 2026 04 08	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	1	54¢	$0	0x87416b…
04-08 20:48:55	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	500	21¢	$105	0xa734e7…
04-08 19:11:09	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	19	30¢	$6	0x19d557…
04-08 19:10:25	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	531	30¢	$159	0xd46b1d…
04-08 10:38:49	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	35	26¢	$9	0x79e615…
04-08 10:38:43	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	515	26¢	$134	0x33f626…
04-07 19:17:43	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	92¢	$19	0xe9472a…
04-07 18:40:23	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x6d5227…
04-07 18:12:21	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0xcaf178…
04-07 18:08:51	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	92¢	$20	0xbcbc75…
04-07 18:01:07	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	92¢	$50	0x51674b…
04-07 16:58:59	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x9cc291…
04-07 16:58:35	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x5cc792…
04-07 16:57:17	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	92¢	$14	0x7ef3e9…
04-07 16:56:43	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x96fff8…
04-07 16:56:37	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x1e80df…
04-07 16:52:15	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x97dc68…
04-07 16:51:17	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xb5c9eb…
04-07 16:51:17	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x6dc9fa…
04-07 16:51:03	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x328cc4…
04-07 16:33:45	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x28a25d…
04-07 15:42:39	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	92¢	$25	0x0f53ec…
04-07 15:16:45	will trump praise allah again by april 15	No	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0x318f89…
04-07 13:44:07	will trump praise allah again by april 15	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x370c42…
04-07 12:57:27	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 260 279	Yes	SELL	100	36¢	$36	0xdd8380…
04-07 04:44:17	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 260 279	Yes	BUY	31	67¢	$21	0x4e5570…
04-07 04:44:17	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 260 279	Yes	BUY	69	67¢	$46	0x4411d0…
04-07 04:27:37	ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 total 3pt5	Over	SELL	1,000	49¢	$490	0x9c1cc3…
04-07 04:26:09	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	90¢	$99	0x04c1c5…
04-07 04:25:13	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xcad460…
04-07 00:14:25	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0xb7c16b…
04-06 22:34:33	ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	1,000	49¢	$490	0x06a23b…
04-06 18:17:49	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	SELL	200	74¢	$148	0xe2d6bd…
04-06 18:14:21	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0x0cb0b8…
04-06 18:09:55	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	SELL	400	25¢	$100	0xda7ca2…
04-06 18:06:59	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x2e2606…
04-06 18:05:03	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0xb560b9…
04-06 18:04:37	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	SELL	1,600	12¢	$192	0x05b4c5…
04-06 17:55:21	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	1,600	12¢	$192	0x1b5ca8…
04-06 17:42:31	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0x103403…
04-06 17:38:41	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	400	25¢	$100	0xb96c65…
04-06 17:30:39	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	252	16¢	$40	0x344ac4…
04-06 17:29:53	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	60	16¢	$10	0xfe5b74…
04-06 17:28:05	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xb3e724…
04-06 17:22:53	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xbc6746…
04-06 17:21:07	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	174	16¢	$28	0x7eed98…
04-06 04:18:53	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	200	84¢	$168	0xffb4c7…
04-06 02:48:13	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	No	SELL	84	58¢	$49	0x82be1e…
04-06 02:47:39	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	No	SELL	116	58¢	$67	0xa35a41…
04-06 02:46:13	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	No	BUY	195	58¢	$113	0x1090bf…
04-06 02:44:27	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x323400…
04-06 02:37:17	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0x3e0e52…
04-04 02:05:35	nhl phi nyi 2026 04 03	Flyers	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x24fa94…
04-04 00:03:55	nhl phi nyi 2026 04 03	Flyers	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0x6419cb…
04-03 02:10:05	nba phx cha 2026 04 02	Hornets	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x3908b0…
04-03 00:35:27	nba phx cha 2026 04 02	Hornets	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0xed2be7…
04-01 16:09:51	Nothing Ever Happens: March	Nothing	SELL	5	70¢	$3	0x7d4c11…
04-01 16:03:39	Nothing Ever Happens: March	Nothing	SELL	100	70¢	$70	0x65f460…
04-01 15:29:57	Nothing Ever Happens: March	Nothing	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x0b01ca…
04-01 15:22:33	Nothing Ever Happens: March	Nothing	SELL	72	70¢	$50	0x2049ed…
04-01 15:07:35	Nothing Ever Happens: March	Nothing	SELL	18	70¢	$13	0x0138c2…
04-01 04:51:27	EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	45	94¢	$42	0x5e85ef…
04-01 03:32:31	EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	45	94¢	$42	0x18bcd1…
03-31 06:35:49	Nothing Ever Happens: March	Nothing	BUY	193	70¢	$135	0x9bc835…
03-31 06:25:35	Nothing Ever Happens: March	Nothing	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x00112d…
03-31 05:02:27	Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	27	86¢	$23	0x126671…
03-31 04:43:33	Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0x73ca3c…
03-31 04:42:25	Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	9	86¢	$8	0x58d43e…
03-31 04:40:53	Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0xb54046…
03-31 04:37:49	Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	34	86¢	$30	0x1f4273…