Substantial-Mammoth — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$97

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

94.5%

Resolved

Trades

122

lifetime

Volume

$11.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$98

Open exposure

$20

1 position

First seen

2026-01-05

last 06-29 23:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

94% 75% +$97

Politics

4% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Yes		-100	$-23	20¢	$-20	+$2	06-21 20:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$2.2K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	05-06 20:34
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	13	$1.2K	2,008	2,008	+0	open	—	04-25 09:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$1.0K	549	549	+0	open	—	04-25 09:44
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	2	$1.0K	542	542	+0	No	+$31	04-25 09:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	9	$912	500	500	+0	open	—	05-10 08:13
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	2	$571	504	247	+257	Yes	+$62	05-06 20:12
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	2	$532	300	300	+0	open	—	05-04 07:49
bun lei bay 2026 01 17 total 3pt5	11	$462	300	300	+0	open	—	01-17 21:25
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?	2	$397	250	247	+3	open	—	04-25 17:23
fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	2	$380	500	500	+0	open	—	06-29 23:24
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$272	200	200	+0	open	—	03-02 07:10
Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Rangers FC: O/U 2.5	1	$250	432	0	+432	open	—	05-04 11:00
elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 65 89	4	$240	200	196	+4	open	—	04-17 20:14
efa cha3 cfc 2026 01 10 total 3pt5	2	$162	200	200	+0	open	—	01-10 21:20
ucl spo1 psg1 2026 01 20 total 2pt5	2	$160	100	100	+0	open	—	01-20 21:53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$154	200	200	+0	open	—	04-18 23:04
efa mnc exe 2026 01 10 total 3pt5	2	$138	200	0	+200	open	—	01-10 14:44
efa liv bar3 2026 01 12 total 3pt5	1	$134	200	0	+200	open	—	01-12 19:15
efa cha3 cfc 2026 01 10 total 2pt5	1	$126	200	0	+200	open	—	01-10 19:32
epl che bre 2026 01 17 total 2pt5	1	$120	200	0	+200	open	—	01-16 21:32
efa tot ast 2026 01 10 total 2pt5	1	$108	200	0	+200	open	—	01-10 14:45
efa whu qpr 2026 01 10 total 2pt5	1	$102	200	0	+200	open	—	01-11 11:31
epl wol new 2026 01 18 total 2pt5	4	$100	200	0	+200	open	—	01-18 14:14
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5	1	$100	179	0	+179	Under	$-100	05-10 10:35
Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5	1	$100	204	0	+204	Over	+$104	05-10 10:40
epl ast eve 2026 01 18 total 2pt5	1	$96	200	0	+200	open	—	01-18 16:43
efa new bor 2026 01 10 total 3pt5	2	$94	200	0	+200	open	—	01-10 14:49
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 25?	7	$90	100	100	+0	open	—	04-25 15:55
will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	1	$77	200	0	+200	open	—	01-23 07:36
btc updown 15m 1768601700	11	$74	100	0	+100	open	—	01-16 22:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-29 23:24:35	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Germany	SELL	500	2¢	$10	0x6e7cba…
06-29 22:25:49	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Germany	BUY	500	74¢	$370	0x68ed49…
06-21 20:04:08	US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	23¢	$23	0xa2e43b…
05-10 10:40:10	Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0x678e23…
05-10 10:35:54	Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0xb26454…
05-10 08:13:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	500	98¢	$492	0xa1c89a…
05-06 20:34:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	1,500	70¢	$1,050	0x0765fc…
05-06 20:12:23	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	247	76¢	$188	0xda1269…
05-06 17:56:25	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	504	76¢	$383	0xd2d0f1…
05-04 11:00:00	Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Rangers FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	432	58¢	$250	0x49c51e…
05-04 07:49:50	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	300	92¢	$278	0x6c2154…
05-03 22:31:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	1,500	79¢	$1,185	0x951060…
04-25 17:23:38	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	SELL	247	100¢	$247	0x23601f…
04-25 15:55:28	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 25?	Yes	SELL	100	30¢	$30	0x04ff8e…
04-25 14:51:50	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	4	60¢	$3	0x0bdff5…
04-25 14:51:46	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	28	60¢	$17	0xc696ec…
04-25 14:51:46	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0x4d71ce…
04-25 14:51:42	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	1	60¢	$1	0x2da159…
04-25 14:51:28	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x4e9177…
04-25 14:50:20	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 25?	Yes	SELL	55	20¢	$11	0x24d33d…
04-25 14:49:40	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	43	60¢	$26	0xff974f…
04-25 09:44:54	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	538	99¢	$531	0x379a89…
04-25 09:44:42	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	No	SELL	542	98¢	$531	0xe6e3cb…
04-25 09:44:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	549	98¢	$540	0xb89c01…
04-25 09:36:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	140	84¢	$117	0x73a72e…
04-25 09:16:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	75	84¢	$63	0x86f055…
04-25 09:07:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	75	84¢	$63	0x54b00f…
04-25 09:07:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	9	84¢	$8	0x45460f…
04-25 09:03:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x0f4bb8…
04-25 08:56:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x6b6da3…
04-25 08:55:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	75	84¢	$63	0x1a5358…
04-25 08:52:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	19	84¢	$16	0xd9d29c…
04-25 08:49:48	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	300	85¢	$255	0xfba5c9…
04-25 08:47:08	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	250	60¢	$150	0xbf573e…
04-25 08:44:36	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	56	41¢	$23	0x7c7594…
04-22 20:54:18	U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x783778…
04-22 10:29:38	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	No	BUY	542	92¢	$500	0x5bf112…
04-22 10:28:58	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	538	93¢	$500	0x43e5e7…
04-22 10:28:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	549	91¢	$500	0xc42b99…
04-18 23:04:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	38¢	$76	0x6e8415…
04-18 22:59:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	39¢	$78	0x390348…
04-17 21:08:30	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	973	6¢	$56	0x7d9068…
04-17 21:08:02	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	675	6¢	$43	0xbc6eaf…
04-17 21:07:46	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	6¢	$2	0xe9c9b7…
04-17 21:07:14	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0xf8bbce…
04-17 21:07:14	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0xb393b1…
04-17 21:07:14	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	6¢	$2	0x7f7bd5…
04-17 21:07:14	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0x7f5fc5…
04-17 21:07:14	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x26bf66…
04-17 21:07:14	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x1010b8…
04-17 21:07:06	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	497	6¢	$30	0x232589…
04-17 21:06:16	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	600	6¢	$37	0x40460e…
04-17 20:14:14	elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 65 89	Yes	SELL	98	62¢	$61	0xd3ca02…
04-17 20:08:26	elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 65 89	Yes	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0x16cf75…
04-17 20:06:12	elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 65 89	Yes	SELL	98	59¢	$58	0xea8fae…
04-17 20:05:22	elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 65 89	Yes	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0xe9968b…
04-17 13:25:18	btc updown 5m 1776432000	Up	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xb8da0d…
04-17 13:23:52	btc updown 5m 1776432000	Up	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xe7489e…
04-17 13:20:26	btc updown 5m 1776431700	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x1b8034…
04-17 13:18:52	btc updown 5m 1776431700	Up	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x85030d…
04-17 11:08:46	btc updown 5m 1776423900	Down	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xd8c97c…
04-17 11:08:00	btc updown 5m 1776423900	Up	SELL	15	85¢	$13	0xa1da84…
04-17 11:06:20	btc updown 5m 1776423900	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xf0508b…
04-17 11:01:00	btc updown 5m 1776423300	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x73e422…
03-02 07:10:01	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0x6d0327…
01-23 07:36:54	will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	Yes	BUY	200	39¢	$77	0x265192…
01-20 21:53:42	ucl spo1 psg1 2026 01 20 total 2pt5	Over	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x944740…
01-20 20:09:16	bank of england decreases interest rates by 25 bps after february 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0x17784d…
01-20 20:09:08	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	Yes	SELL	200	5¢	$10	0xc81d66…
01-20 20:08:40	ucl spo1 psg1 2026 01 20 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x9c26b8…
01-20 19:26:44	ucl int ars1 2026 01 20 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0x2d2e64…
01-20 19:24:10	ucl tot1 bvb 2026 01 20 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x691355…
01-18 16:43:42	epl ast eve 2026 01 18 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	200	48¢	$96	0x94e5d8…
01-18 14:14:08	epl wol new 2026 01 18 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	192	50¢	$96	0x6e82ae…
01-18 14:13:50	epl wol new 2026 01 18 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x4778b8…
01-18 14:13:44	epl wol new 2026 01 18 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc40024…
01-18 14:13:20	epl wol new 2026 01 18 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x01d549…
01-17 21:25:42	bun lei bay 2026 01 17 total 3pt5	Over	SELL	300	100¢	$300	0xf2bde0…
01-16 22:26:58	btc updown 15m 1768601700	Up	BUY	6	74¢	$5	0xf8d560…
01-16 22:26:56	btc updown 15m 1768601700	Up	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x5a19a6…
01-16 22:26:54	btc updown 15m 1768601700	Up	BUY	6	74¢	$4	0x76edc4…
01-16 22:26:54	btc updown 15m 1768601700	Up	BUY	6	74¢	$4	0x504345…
01-16 22:26:52	btc updown 15m 1768601700	Up	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xe72fb1…
01-16 22:26:52	btc updown 15m 1768601700	Up	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x86d92d…
01-16 22:26:52	btc updown 15m 1768601700	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x58241c…
01-16 22:26:48	btc updown 15m 1768601700	Up	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x346bda…
01-16 22:26:46	btc updown 15m 1768601700	Up	BUY	9	74¢	$7	0x251fef…
01-16 22:26:44	btc updown 15m 1768601700	Up	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x4eec65…
01-16 22:26:42	btc updown 15m 1768601700	Up	BUY	13	74¢	$9	0xf1e509…
01-16 22:03:36	btc updown 15m 1768600800	Up	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0xab9767…
01-16 21:56:18	btc updown 15m 1768599900	Up	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0xd3bdc9…
01-16 21:55:46	btc updown 15m 1768605300	Up	SELL	39	50¢	$19	0x12a671…
01-16 21:44:42	bun lei bay 2026 01 17 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	0	54¢	$0	0x564168…
01-16 21:44:40	bun lei bay 2026 01 17 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	49	54¢	$26	0x36fcbf…
01-16 21:44:38	bun lei bay 2026 01 17 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	116	54¢	$63	0x8a2194…
01-16 21:44:22	bun lei bay 2026 01 17 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xaa12f5…
01-16 21:44:18	bun lei bay 2026 01 17 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	24	54¢	$13	0x553c28…
01-16 21:43:36	bun lei bay 2026 01 17 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0xea1645…
01-16 21:42:18	bun lei bay 2026 01 17 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	35	54¢	$19	0x0f9cd6…
01-16 21:39:06	btc updown 15m 1768605300	Up	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0x016891…