Improbable-Chasm — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$24

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

225

lifetime

Volume

$849

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$16

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-11

last 06-04 22:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

72% 0% $-17

Other

23% 0% $-7

Politics

3% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 43 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No		+12	$10	90¢	$11	+$1	06-04 22:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No		+7	$5	72¢	$5	+$0	06-04 22:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$137	79	79	+0	open	—	04-24 15:02
btc updown 5m 1777046100	4	$70	43	42	+1	open	—	04-24 15:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	2	$42	23	23	+0	open	—	04-25 10:05
btc updown 5m 1776335100	6	$34	22	22	+0	open	—	04-16 10:30
btc updown 5m 1776118500	5	$27	30	19	+11	open	—	04-13 22:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	4	$23	36	36	+0	Up	$-7	05-11 21:04
btc updown 5m 1777049700	5	$21	18	17	+1	open	—	04-24 16:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	2	$21	14	13	+0	open	—	04-26 21:42
btc updown 5m 1777043400	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	04-24 15:13
btc updown 5m 1777043700	3	$20	18	7	+10	open	—	04-24 15:19
btc updown 5m 1777044600	1	$15	17	0	+17	open	—	04-24 15:34
btc updown 5m 1776900900	4	$14	12	12	+0	open	—	04-22 23:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	6	$14	27	26	+1	open	—	04-24 21:19
btc updown 5m 1780612800	3	$13	13	2	+11	open	—	06-04 22:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	2	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	04-27 15:20
btc updown 5m 1776035100	2	$11	10	9	+0	open	—	04-12 23:05
btc updown 5m 1776002400	3	$11	10	9	+0	open	—	04-12 14:01
sol updown 5m 1775999700	2	$11	10	10	+0	open	—	04-12 13:15
btc updown 5m 1776288900	2	$11	8	8	+0	open	—	04-15 21:35
Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	05-14 21:08
btc updown 5m 1776677700	3	$11	8	8	+0	open	—	04-20 09:36
btc updown 5m 1776001500	2	$11	11	11	+0	open	—	04-12 13:49
btc updown 5m 1776334800	2	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	04-16 10:22
btc updown 5m 1776035700	2	$10	10	9	+0	open	—	04-12 23:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	3	$10	29	29	+0	Down	$-10	05-11 20:54
btc updown 5m 1777047000	2	$10	8	7	+0	open	—	04-24 16:10
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	1	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	05-14 08:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	05-11 21:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	05-19 15:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	06-04 22:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-04 22:52:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x13d821…
06-04 22:52:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xc3e847…
06-04 22:44:39	btc updown 5m 1780612800	Up	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0x02031f…
06-04 22:44:09	btc updown 5m 1780612800	Up	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x144cfc…
06-04 22:44:00	btc updown 5m 1780612800	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xca4dd2…
05-19 15:39:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x9a65f3…
05-18 14:16:37	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xfaff0f…
05-18 14:16:18	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x125c79…
05-18 14:15:50	Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x030507…
05-18 14:15:24	Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x42f777…
05-18 14:15:13	Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xeaa3a6…
05-14 21:08:15	Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xa2560d…
05-14 08:28:45	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0xadc695…
05-13 23:57:43	Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0x163dd0…
05-12 21:31:01	Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xc393cc…
05-12 21:29:06	Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x303197…
05-12 21:28:15	Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xf5b11f…
05-12 21:26:05	Will Czechia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x41857e…
05-12 21:25:44	Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xdc7e97…
05-12 21:24:34	Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x65a5e2…
05-12 21:23:45	Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x4c1554…
05-12 21:20:24	Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x0f56db…
05-12 21:20:15	Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x7d6464…
05-12 21:19:46	Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xba325f…
05-11 21:07:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xd56b51…
05-11 21:04:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	SELL	27	7¢	$2	0x61af4c…
05-11 21:01:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x0c3259…
05-11 21:00:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	SELL	9	65¢	$6	0x767bf8…
05-11 21:00:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x679aa2…
05-11 20:54:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	SELL	29	1¢	$0	0xeb0000…
05-11 20:51:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x01cfeb…
05-11 20:49:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xc8ae0a…
04-28 12:57:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0xb5314a…
04-28 12:57:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x377939…
04-28 12:57:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xe93d9b…
04-28 12:56:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x44bd0b…
04-28 12:54:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb1c8f0…
04-28 12:54:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xbad237…
04-28 12:54:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	SELL	4	7¢	$0	0x0feb4d…
04-28 12:53:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xbdf44d…
04-27 22:57:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	SELL	6	43¢	$2	0x701b44…
04-27 22:57:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xaf7286…
04-27 22:55:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xd90b11…
04-27 15:20:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x857848…
04-27 15:17:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x01d6d4…
04-26 21:42:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	13	82¢	$11	0xd66e18…
04-26 21:42:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x51ed77…
04-26 16:21:04	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	9¢	$5	0x852ee3…
04-26 15:36:12	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	10¢	$5	0xfebd04…
04-25 21:51:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0x77eb21…
04-25 21:50:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xa8947d…
04-25 21:49:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x164077…
04-25 21:49:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x1c70c1…
04-25 21:14:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	20¢	$0	0xe81d25…
04-25 21:14:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x56064d…
04-25 21:13:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xdd7720…
04-25 21:13:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xb4ab72…
04-25 21:13:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x56b1f4…
04-25 21:12:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x3662ca…
04-25 21:11:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xfe6043…
04-25 21:09:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xfd5a82…
04-25 20:34:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	SELL	4	10¢	$0	0x9b65f7…
04-25 20:34:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x31f712…
04-25 20:33:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x9a387c…
04-25 20:30:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x77400e…
04-25 20:28:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	3	31¢	$1	0x8d0f6d…
04-25 20:28:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x4110aa…
04-25 20:26:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0xbb2b87…
04-25 20:25:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x244b39…
04-25 20:24:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xf1386c…
04-25 20:22:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x9e3a76…
04-25 20:21:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0x648a25…
04-25 20:20:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xe7ba9b…
04-25 14:00:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf77ecf…
04-25 14:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xd0b9d4…
04-25 10:05:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	SELL	23	99¢	$22	0xb1a38c…
04-25 10:04:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0xfd1e88…
04-24 21:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	SELL	6	44¢	$3	0x9c7188…
04-24 21:36:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x1cb8cb…
04-24 21:35:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x170afd…
04-24 21:29:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	9	43¢	$4	0x7cbcb9…
04-24 21:27:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x22e8d7…
04-24 21:26:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x280e0b…
04-24 21:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	SELL	13	2¢	$0	0x14c999…
04-24 21:19:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x913879…
04-24 21:17:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0x501168…
04-24 21:17:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x5b59ec…
04-24 21:17:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	SELL	10	53¢	$5	0x7817e9…
04-24 21:15:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x99a4b2…
04-24 21:09:56	Solana Up or Down - April 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0x5fdfff…
04-24 21:08:24	Solana Up or Down - April 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	8	72¢	$6	0x334661…
04-24 21:04:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xabd7ef…
04-24 21:04:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x993215…
04-24 17:09:14	btc updown 5m 1777050300	Up	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0xfe9e26…
04-24 17:07:08	btc updown 5m 1777050300	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x4417e3…
04-24 17:06:54	btc updown 5m 1777050300	Up	SELL	4	46¢	$2	0x543963…
04-24 17:06:18	btc updown 5m 1777050300	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xd37eb9…
04-24 16:58:28	btc updown 5m 1777049700	Up	SELL	9	60¢	$6	0xbe7204…
04-24 16:57:02	btc updown 5m 1777049700	Down	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0xb2f770…
04-24 16:57:02	btc updown 5m 1777049700	Down	SELL	6	71¢	$5	0x46842f…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	79	$80.4K	1,380	06-09 23:15
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	73	$56.8K	3,754	05-11 21:00
(anonymous) 0xd901…8e14	72	$20.8K	6,828	06-04 22:44
(anonymous) 0x424e…263b	72	$18.2K	4,167	06-04 22:44
(anonymous) 0xba67…4727	72	$15.4K	3,154	06-04 22:44
(anonymous) 0x48ac…4a7e	71	$18.2K	6,279	06-04 22:44
Each-Hose 0x8dc1…0646	70	$23.3K	4,086	05-11 21:01
(anonymous) 0x20d2…e29d	70	$13.1K	618	06-04 22:44