Knowledgeable-Statistic — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

-$20

Hit rate

42.5%

Resolved

Trades

112

lifetime

Volume

$1.70K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-23

last 06-26 18:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

62% 100% +$0

Crypto

24% 40% $-2

Politics

9% — —

Sports

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes		+34	$20	1¢	$0	$-20	06-26 07:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	3	$318	169	169	+0	open	—	06-01 04:54
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	4	$219	124	124	+0	open	—	05-10 19:29
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	4	$115	268	268	+0	open	—	05-15 11:55
will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	3	$114	99	99	+0	open	—	06-07 07:57
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	2	$85	47	47	+0	open	—	05-14 05:49
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	2	$50	41	41	+0	open	—	06-13 20:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	2	$47	32	32	+0	open	—	05-23 12:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	2	$39	43	43	+0	Down	$-1	05-11 19:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	2	$31	39	39	+0	open	—	06-02 04:26
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	1	$30	38	0	+38	open	—	06-03 08:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	2	$27	22	22	+0	open	—	05-31 19:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	4	$26	97	97	+0	open	—	05-23 12:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	1	$25	37	0	+37	open	—	05-15 17:15
fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 spread away 1pt5	2	$25	37	0	+37	open	—	06-13 20:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$23	13	13	+0	open	—	05-10 19:28
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	2	$22	23	23	+0	open	—	05-11 08:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	4	$22	16	16	+0	open	—	05-31 12:39
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	2	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$0	04-27 07:45
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	06-26 07:33
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	06-14 12:42
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic	1	$21	30	0	+30	open	—	05-29 08:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	1	$20	34	0	+34	open	—	06-26 07:34
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$20	29	0	+29	open	—	06-07 07:58
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	06-03 08:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	2	$19	17	17	+0	Down	$-1	05-11 04:39
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$19	11	11	+0	open	—	05-15 09:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	4	$18	13	13	+0	open	—	05-30 19:44
fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 goals erling haaland gte1	2	$18	12	12	+0	open	—	06-26 18:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	3	$18	14	8	+6	open	—	05-23 12:04
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$17	10	10	+0	open	—	05-15 09:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-26 18:18:25	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 spread away 1pt5	Norway	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x88cc2a…
06-26 18:18:10	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 goals erling haaland gte1	No	SELL	12	85¢	$10	0x8ef047…
06-26 14:45:14	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 goals erling haaland gte1	No	BUY	12	68¢	$8	0x42d11d…
06-26 07:34:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0xebc666…
06-26 07:34:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xa0a601…
06-26 07:33:53	Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x1905db…
06-20 16:49:22	fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 corners total 9pt5	Over	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xdab8b6…
06-19 05:56:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x95d0fd…
06-19 05:56:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	58	12¢	$7	0xb9996c…
06-14 12:44:18	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 spread home 2pt5	Spain	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x2c5969…
06-14 12:43:54	fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 spread home 1pt5	Netherlands	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xb5d6c1…
06-14 12:43:22	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 spread home 4pt5	Curaçao	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xebd98c…
06-14 12:42:09	Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	11	95¢	$11	0x6da44b…
06-13 20:28:10	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 spread away 1pt5	Switzerland	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x538221…
06-13 20:21:09	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 spread away 1pt5	Switzerland	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0xacf9e5…
06-13 20:20:22	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	41	50¢	$20	0x0d3d62…
06-07 18:30:31	Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Norway	BUY	32	19¢	$6	0x62b63d…
06-07 08:01:54	btc updown 5m 1780819200	Down	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0x4ccf89…
06-07 08:01:45	Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x26945a…
06-07 08:00:39	Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0xc80efb…
06-07 08:00:33	Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x366219…
06-07 08:00:04	Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0xae56ad…
06-07 07:58:52	Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0x70f0ca…
06-07 07:57:31	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	99	64¢	$64	0x297139…
06-05 15:55:28	dota2 flc aur1 2026 06 05	Team Falcons	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0xc9ac53…
06-05 15:50:01	btc updown 5m 1780674600	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x294a19…
06-05 14:50:13	btc updown 5m 1780671000	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x0daaf9…
06-05 14:48:15	btc updown 5m 1780670700	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x072066…
06-03 08:46:49	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x492679…
06-03 08:46:41	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	49	61¢	$30	0x3167b6…
06-03 08:46:25	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	41	74¢	$30	0x66c2c9…
06-03 08:46:18	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	38	80¢	$30	0xe9bdba…
06-02 13:53:14	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x984afb…
06-02 04:26:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	SELL	39	29¢	$11	0xf17b81…
06-02 04:24:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	SELL	18	15¢	$3	0x51a880…
06-02 04:22:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0xa5d3fc…
06-02 04:20:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xc00432…
06-01 04:57:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x986cf2…
06-01 04:55:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xe1423a…
06-01 04:54:27	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	169	95¢	$161	0x5f18d9…
05-31 21:04:05	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	153	93¢	$142	0x1bd49f…
05-31 19:47:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	SELL	9	41¢	$4	0xf3bbca…
05-31 19:46:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x15554c…
05-31 19:44:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	SELL	22	78¢	$17	0xbc9659…
05-31 19:43:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x0df52c…
05-31 12:39:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0x38c04f…
05-31 12:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x735ca1…
05-31 12:37:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x2643f4…
05-31 12:36:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x845985…
05-31 10:00:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	SELL	11	53¢	$6	0x5cd874…
05-31 10:00:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x10df7c…
05-31 07:57:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	79¢	$2	0x011afc…
05-31 07:57:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x0b9d9a…
05-31 07:56:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	3	44¢	$1	0xa7d807…
05-31 07:56:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x5e6bbd…
05-31 07:55:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	9	67¢	$6	0xbe88cb…
05-31 07:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x143b00…
05-31 06:13:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xa4be3a…
05-30 19:44:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0xa37d31…
05-30 19:41:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x7230fd…
05-30 19:41:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	SELL	4	45¢	$2	0x8cae7b…
05-30 19:40:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x9cd36b…
05-29 08:18:25	Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic	Novak Djokovic	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x871611…
05-29 06:31:58	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	17	86¢	$14	0xeb7ae7…
05-23 12:21:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0xed7578…
05-23 12:14:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	32	47¢	$15	0x47bb98…
05-23 12:14:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	97	2¢	$2	0xd1540e…
05-23 12:13:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x2e9a10…
05-23 12:12:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	22	14¢	$3	0x6edf62…
05-23 12:10:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0xd43fa4…
05-23 12:06:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x3369a4…
05-23 12:05:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xe321ba…
05-23 12:04:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x50ed54…
05-23 12:03:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	SELL	8	95¢	$8	0xc292d8…
05-23 12:01:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xb392c2…
05-15 17:15:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0xf41fa7…
05-15 11:55:09	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	256	18¢	$46	0x648432…
05-15 09:43:57	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	256	19¢	$50	0xb56ac9…
05-15 09:43:17	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	10	79¢	$8	0x11d179…
05-15 09:43:06	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	11	78¢	$9	0x4efae2…
05-15 09:43:01	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	11	80¢	$9	0x7fc284…
05-15 08:49:32	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xf52305…
05-15 08:49:25	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x8323a7…
05-15 08:49:11	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x267c0b…
05-14 05:49:40	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	47	96¢	$45	0xc71237…
05-12 09:08:26	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	47	86¢	$40	0x270f63…
05-12 04:03:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	SELL	9	88¢	$8	0xdfdb94…
05-12 04:02:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xeaea39…
05-11 19:26:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	SELL	43	43¢	$19	0x5d1c18…
05-11 19:25:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	43	46¢	$20	0x9351e9…
05-11 19:21:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xb5b1b3…
05-11 08:39:05	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	No	SELL	23	51¢	$12	0x2883b6…
05-11 04:39:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	SELL	17	56¢	$9	0xe49ff9…
05-11 04:36:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x3b20d5…
05-10 19:45:07	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	No	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x5c332e…
05-10 19:33:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0x208123…
05-10 19:30:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x98e1a0…
05-10 19:29:39	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	109	95¢	$104	0x0695a2…
05-10 19:28:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x5cd2e9…
04-27 07:46:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	13	86¢	$11	0x9a8064…