Plump-Underestimate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

78.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.72K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-05

last 05-08 15:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 56% $-2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 58 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	4	$215	160	160	+0	Down	+$15	05-08 15:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	2	$165	87	87	+0	Up	+$5	05-08 01:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	4	$139	112	112	+0	Down	+$19	05-08 14:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	2	$124	104	104	+0	Up	+$24	05-07 23:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	4	$83	127	127	+0	Down	$-37	05-08 15:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	4	$72	75	75	+0	Up	+$2	05-07 23:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	2	$70	48	48	+0	Up	+$10	05-08 00:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	3	$69	57	57	+0	Up	+$9	05-08 00:14
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	5	$63	73	38	+35	Down	+$12	05-07 17:44
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	2	$44	26	26	+0	Up	+$4	05-07 17:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	2	$43	50	50	+0	Down	+$3	05-08 00:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	2	$42	28	28	+0	Up	+$6	05-07 21:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	2	$41	32	32	+0	Down	+$1	05-07 23:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	2	$39	27	27	+0	Up	+$9	05-07 22:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	2	$37	38	38	+0	Down	$-3	05-08 15:10
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	2	$35	22	22	+0	Up	+$7	05-07 17:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	2	$32	27	27	+0	Up	+$2	05-08 00:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	2	$32	21	21	+0	Down	$-0	05-08 15:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	2	$29	37	37	+0	Down	$-11	05-08 01:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	3	$27	26	19	+8	Up	$-3	05-08 09:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	3	$26	44	29	+15	Down	$-9	05-08 11:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	1	$26	51	0	+51	Up	$-26	05-07 22:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	1	$20	45	0	+45	Down	$-20	05-08 14:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	1	$20	32	0	+32	Up	+$12	05-08 01:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	2	$19	17	17	+0	Down	+$9	05-07 21:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	2	$18	11	11	+0	Up	+$2	05-08 11:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	2	$18	9	9	+0	Down	+$0	05-05 22:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	2	$17	13	13	+0	Down	+$3	05-08 10:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	1	$16	29	0	+29	Down	$-16	05-08 15:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	2	$15	15	15	+0	Down	$-1	05-07 23:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-08 15:20:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	29	53¢	$16	0x39c64a…
05-08 15:18:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	SELL	21	76¢	$16	0x743788…
05-08 15:18:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	21	77¢	$16	0x361b04…
05-08 15:10:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	SELL	38	45¢	$17	0x075925…
05-08 15:10:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xcfd82e…
05-08 15:09:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	SELL	27	58¢	$16	0x044552…
05-08 15:08:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x3917f8…
05-08 15:07:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0xdf93ae…
05-08 15:05:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x3b008a…
05-08 15:03:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	SELL	81	76¢	$61	0xaf36bf…
05-08 15:02:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	81	62¢	$50	0x560c60…
05-08 15:00:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	SELL	79	68¢	$54	0xb9b8b5…
05-08 15:00:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0xc4fe59…
05-08 14:55:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	45	44¢	$20	0x3c3617…
05-08 14:52:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	SELL	16	67¢	$10	0x26a7c2…
05-08 14:51:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xd27f20…
05-08 14:50:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	SELL	96	71¢	$68	0xee6cd5…
05-08 14:50:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0xa4419a…
05-08 11:19:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0xd0d738…
05-08 11:16:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	SELL	29	30¢	$9	0x8d12f1…
05-08 11:16:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x770bce…
05-08 11:04:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	SELL	11	97¢	$10	0xe7a328…
05-08 11:04:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	11	75¢	$8	0x968c74…
05-08 10:59:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0x67fe44…
05-08 10:44:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	41¢	$3	0x9f927d…
05-08 10:43:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	SELL	17	14¢	$2	0x9f726d…
05-08 10:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	17	46¢	$8	0x1554fc…
05-08 10:23:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	SELL	6	25¢	$1	0xe558e7…
05-08 10:19:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xbb651a…
05-08 10:17:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	SELL	7	41¢	$3	0x23d86c…
05-08 10:16:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0x5c9dda…
05-08 10:15:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0xe9c54a…
05-08 10:14:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x74c3e1…
05-08 10:13:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	SELL	19	14¢	$3	0xf17f0b…
05-08 10:09:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x13b91e…
05-08 10:05:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	SELL	13	77¢	$10	0x2a2d04…
05-08 10:05:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	13	53¢	$7	0x0e7202…
05-08 09:58:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x8842b3…
05-08 09:56:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	19	66¢	$12	0x9c67f8…
05-08 09:56:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xad07c7…
05-08 09:52:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	SELL	7	75¢	$6	0x5298bd…
05-08 09:51:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x3401df…
05-08 01:25:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0xf9bf5c…
05-08 01:19:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	SELL	87	98¢	$85	0xb2982e…
05-08 01:19:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	87	92¢	$80	0x48166c…
05-08 01:06:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	SELL	37	25¢	$9	0x7bfda8…
05-08 01:05:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0xa8f44b…
05-08 00:59:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	48	84¢	$40	0x5b3a8f…
05-08 00:58:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	48	63¢	$30	0x755bcb…
05-08 00:41:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	SELL	50	46¢	$23	0xf648a2…
05-08 00:40:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0xe5fae2…
05-08 00:25:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	SELL	24	17¢	$4	0xaa42c8…
05-08 00:25:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x1a1b30…
05-08 00:22:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	SELL	27	64¢	$17	0x442ffa…
05-08 00:22:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	27	55¢	$15	0xc8092d…
05-08 00:14:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	SELL	44	69¢	$30	0x06c75c…
05-08 00:13:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	SELL	12	65¢	$8	0xb6fd53…
05-08 00:10:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	57	53¢	$30	0x926d3a…
05-07 23:56:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	32	64¢	$21	0xc81b77…
05-07 23:55:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0x271f62…
05-07 23:52:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	15	44¢	$7	0x53884a…
05-07 23:50:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0xbf80ca…
05-07 23:49:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0xc2b823…
05-07 23:47:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x945c20…
05-07 23:47:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	SELL	65	54¢	$35	0xf8949d…
05-07 23:45:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	65	46¢	$30	0xb16f2f…
05-07 23:36:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	SELL	104	71¢	$74	0xb404a5…
05-07 23:36:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	104	48¢	$50	0xe84816…
05-07 22:54:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	51	52¢	$26	0x92819a…
05-07 22:50:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	SELL	9	64¢	$6	0x97a488…
05-07 22:50:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x76c5bc…
05-07 22:45:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xa78219…
05-07 22:43:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	SELL	8	85¢	$7	0x8765d1…
05-07 22:40:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x964aa7…
05-07 22:20:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x6975bd…
05-07 22:16:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xdfbfd8…
05-07 22:11:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	SELL	27	88¢	$24	0x41b88e…
05-07 22:10:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	27	55¢	$15	0xf2adf0…
05-07 22:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x3551aa…
05-07 21:59:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	17	87¢	$14	0x8c292b…
05-07 21:55:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xcbf06a…
05-07 21:46:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	SELL	28	84¢	$24	0x9eb4e6…
05-07 21:45:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	28	63¢	$18	0x67453c…
05-07 17:46:59	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x3dd284…
05-07 17:44:56	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	35	54¢	$19	0xf84a80…
05-07 17:42:55	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	SELL	7	79¢	$5	0xaf2b9f…
05-07 17:41:24	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0xd1d45e…
05-07 17:41:07	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	SELL	31	48¢	$15	0x2bbca9…
05-07 17:40:30	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0xdf1e8d…
05-07 17:39:13	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	SELL	26	91¢	$24	0xf0f6eb…
05-07 17:38:43	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0xdfbbd3…
05-07 17:22:36	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	SELL	22	94¢	$21	0x12bb83…
05-07 17:21:26	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	22	63¢	$14	0x01c9e2…
05-05 22:36:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xad263e…
05-05 22:30:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x3f2ea8…
05-05 22:27:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	74¢	$1	0xd8ebbf…
05-05 22:25:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x330d92…
05-05 22:01:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x8c515f…
05-05 21:59:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x775d80…