Thick-Hammer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

22.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$632

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

$27

1 position

First seen

2026-02-14

last 06-21 01:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

45% 100% +$0

Sports

26% 50% +$9

Other

16% — —

Tech

13% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30?	No		+27	$27	100¢	$27	+$0	06-13 12:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch?	2	$158	82	82	+0	open	—	02-27 06:50
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$85	43	43	+0	No	$-0	04-21 20:16
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	1	$78	78	0	+78	open	—	02-27 12:41
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	2	$42	22	22	+0	open	—	04-11 02:55
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	1	$41	47	0	+47	open	—	03-07 04:05
cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	1	$27	53	0	+53	open	—	03-17 06:24
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30?	1	$27	27	0	+27	open	—	06-13 12:55
nba gsw was 2026 03 16	1	$23	32	0	+32	open	—	03-16 09:05
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	1	$21	21	0	+21	open	—	05-20 18:07
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6?	1	$19	19	0	+19	No	+$0	05-06 03:38
sea ver gen 2026 03 15 ver	1	$19	27	0	+27	open	—	03-15 06:37
ufc jos60 rob21 2026 04 04	1	$14	50	0	+50	open	—	04-03 01:37
ucl fcb1 atm1 2026 04 08 fcb1	1	$10	16	0	+16	open	—	04-08 05:14
ucl spo1 ars 2026 04 07 spo1	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	04-07 07:41
mlb nyy cle 2026 06 08	1	$10	19	0	+19	open	—	06-08 04:32
ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 psg1	1	$9	20	0	+20	open	—	04-08 02:59
mlb cws det 2026 06 21	1	$8	17	0	+17	open	—	06-21 01:58
nhl nsh lak 2026 04 06	1	$8	17	0	+17	open	—	04-06 03:51
nhl chi sj 2026 04 06	1	$7	18	0	+18	open	—	04-06 06:05
nba min orl 2026 04 08	1	$6	19	0	+19	open	—	04-08 05:52
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	1	$5	14	0	+14	Timberwolves	+$9	05-10 07:42
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$4	4	0	+4	open	—	02-28 00:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-21 01:58:47	mlb cws det 2026 06 21	Chicago White Sox	BUY	17	49¢	$8	0x58a16b…
06-13 12:55:36	Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x34f07b…
06-08 04:32:37	mlb nyy cle 2026 06 08	New York Yankees	BUY	19	50¢	$10	0xb56c8f…
05-20 18:07:43	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xc35e0e…
05-10 07:42:01	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Timberwolves	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x93880e…
05-06 03:38:34	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0xda0683…
04-21 20:16:48	Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	43	100¢	$43	0x08cebe…
04-21 19:32:28	Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0x100fd9…
04-11 02:55:51	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	22	95¢	$21	0x835f6b…
04-08 05:52:21	nba min orl 2026 04 08	Timberwolves	BUY	19	34¢	$6	0x99e9d0…
04-08 05:14:01	ucl fcb1 atm1 2026 04 08 fcb1	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xa3680a…
04-08 02:59:41	ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 psg1	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x098f39…
04-07 07:41:31	ucl spo1 ars 2026 04 07 spo1	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x17f33c…
04-06 06:05:19	nhl chi sj 2026 04 06	Blackhawks	BUY	18	38¢	$7	0x8bfe1a…
04-06 03:51:35	nhl nsh lak 2026 04 06	Predators	BUY	17	45¢	$8	0xb55205…
04-03 01:37:51	ufc jos60 rob21 2026 04 04	Robert Ruchala	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0x8697ef…
03-17 06:24:45	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	UMBC Retrievers	BUY	53	52¢	$27	0xfac08c…
03-16 09:05:29	nba gsw was 2026 03 16	Warriors	BUY	32	74¢	$23	0xf59fd2…
03-15 06:37:19	sea ver gen 2026 03 15 ver	No	BUY	27	72¢	$19	0x641bb3…
03-08 04:02:11	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	22	92¢	$21	0xeaef68…
03-07 04:05:33	EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	47	88¢	$41	0x0da7df…
02-28 00:09:57	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x0d8f59…
02-27 12:41:13	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	Yes	BUY	78	100¢	$78	0xc40ce6…
02-27 06:50:56	EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	82	95¢	$78	0x4b79fa…
02-14 19:20:09	EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	82	98¢	$80	0xfc7d8a…