Watchful-Ketchup — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$29

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

39.8%

Resolved

Trades

7,323

lifetime

Volume

$22.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-22

last 06-13 20:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

57% 0% $-0

Politics

25% 54% +$23

Other

17% 0% $-66

Sports

1% 100% +$15

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 74 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Kim Min-Jae record the most red cards in 2025-26 UEFA Champions League?	Yes		+9	$1	0¢	$0	$-1	04-05 02:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" during his next YouTube video?	104	$287	353	213	+140	open	—	03-07 17:42
will jd vance clap 100 times or more during the state of the union	24	$256	213	203	+10	open	—	02-25 12:43
btc updown 5m 1773700800	20	$167	231	230	+1	open	—	03-16 22:43
will trump say ayatollah or khamenei this week march 8	59	$154	220	136	+84	open	—	03-08 20:08
will trump say make america great again or maga this week march 8	60	$136	245	90	+155	open	—	03-08 21:31
will trump say iran during inter miami events on thursday	52	$126	174	84	+91	open	—	03-05 21:35
will usd reach 1pt7m iranian rials by february 28	44	$121	493	548	-55	open	—	02-28 23:32
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?	23	$114	155	112	+43	open	—	05-14 06:06
btc updown 5m 1773699900	28	$106	125	124	+1	open	—	03-16 22:29
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	33	$105	143	143	+0	open	—	05-13 21:26
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 17 million 669	23	$101	155	135	+20	open	—	02-16 06:14
will axiom be accused of insider trading	29	$100	132	114	+18	open	—	02-26 14:54
Will MrBeast say "Insane" during his next YouTube video?	39	$93	168	63	+105	open	—	03-07 17:48
will the announcers say knockout or knock out or knocked out during holloway vs oliveira 2	26	$90	119	48	+71	open	—	03-08 05:15
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 16 million 278	22	$85	110	100	+10	open	—	02-16 04:10
btc updown 15m 1770451200	12	$83	130	0	+130	open	—	02-07 08:02
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 18 million 565	12	$78	70	70	+0	open	—	02-16 06:15
will the announcers say blood or bloody during holloway vs oliveira 2	26	$75	126	21	+105	open	—	03-08 05:08
btc updown 5m 1773703200	33	$72	105	89	+16	open	—	03-16 23:24
will trump say goat or greatest of all time during inter miami events on thursday	34	$72	107	43	+64	open	—	03-06 01:00
btc updown 15m 1772082900	41	$71	102	88	+13	open	—	02-26 05:24
will trump say messi 3 times during inter miami events on thursday	30	$70	90	57	+33	open	—	03-05 21:35
will the announcers say white house or trump during holloway vs oliveira 2	21	$68	108	38	+70	open	—	03-08 05:16
will trump say tiger during college football roundtable 375	24	$67	96	42	+54	open	—	03-06 21:27
will trump say iran during college football roundtable 125	25	$65	102	42	+60	open	—	03-06 23:02
btc updown 5m 1773702300	11	$65	108	0	+108	open	—	03-16 23:07
btc updown 15m 1769538600	9	$63	104	0	+104	open	—	01-27 18:37
btc updown 15m 1772081100	40	$62	131	77	+54	open	—	02-26 04:54
will company b be accused of insider trading	33	$61	131	119	+12	open	—	02-26 13:38
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	16	$60	90	75	+15	open	—	05-13 21:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-13 20:17:04	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x5cf325…
06-13 19:50:49	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x5b6ebc…
05-27 14:23:12	Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during Cabinet meeting?	No	BUY	15	40¢	$6	0xe6c015…
05-27 14:22:48	Will Trump say "Deal" 15+ times during Cabinet meeting?	No	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0xa34394…
05-27 14:22:44	Will Trump say "Deal" 15+ times during Cabinet meeting?	No	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0xb93f1a…
05-27 14:09:33	Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during Cabinet meeting?	No	SELL	15	33¢	$5	0xbed9df…
05-27 13:49:59	Will Trump say "Deal" 15+ times during Cabinet meeting?	No	SELL	15	44¢	$7	0x6dc996…
05-27 13:35:26	Will Trump say "World Cup" during Cabinet meeting?	Yes	SELL	9	43¢	$4	0x1f6abc…
05-27 13:01:04	Will Trump say "World Cup" during Cabinet meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	39¢	$6	0x1cedc1…
05-27 12:53:10	Will Trump say "Deal" 15+ times during Cabinet meeting?	No	BUY	15	37¢	$6	0x0aed5a…
05-27 12:44:37	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Cabinet meeting?	No	BUY	15	42¢	$6	0x8c8901…
05-27 11:28:07	Will Trump say "Fauci" during Cabinet meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	44¢	$7	0x6afe53…
05-23 04:51:54	Will Bernie say "Corrupt" or "Corruption" in Maine?	No	BUY	15	31¢	$5	0x33f5d7…
05-23 03:28:34	Will Bernie say "Robot" or "Robotic" or "Robotics" in Maine?	No	BUY	15	11¢	$2	0xb35df8…
05-22 21:12:29	Will Bernie say "Elon" or "Musk" in Maine?	No	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0xdc4907…
05-22 20:46:09	Will Bernie say "Fight" in Maine?	No	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x034837…
05-22 13:44:36	Will Bernie say "Healthcare" 4+ times in Maine?	No	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x621a0d…
05-22 13:19:28	Will Trump say "Job" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0x8d070a…
05-22 13:16:28	Will Trump say "Too late" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	BUY	12	37¢	$4	0xa3422d…
05-22 13:16:08	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	SELL	30	28¢	$8	0x69f4ee…
05-22 13:04:06	Will Trump say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x2e61af…
05-22 13:03:24	Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	15	30¢	$4	0x74b2e7…
05-22 12:21:08	Will Trump say "Oil" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	SELL	21	47¢	$10	0xa9166a…
05-22 11:50:50	Will Trump say "Cut rate" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	BUY	0	28¢	$0	0x35915f…
05-22 11:38:00	Will Trump say "Cut rate" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	BUY	15	28¢	$4	0xeb97a8…
05-22 11:03:29	Will Bernie say "Healthcare" in Maine?	No	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x40ecd0…
05-22 10:28:52	Will Trump say "Cut rate" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0x33202e…
05-22 10:07:36	Will Trump say "Job" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0xb721ca…
05-22 10:01:06	Will Trump say "Jerome" or "Powell" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	BUY	14	39¢	$6	0x16d07e…
05-22 10:00:42	Will Trump say "Jerome" or "Powell" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	BUY	0	39¢	$0	0xc32e34…
05-22 10:00:19	Will Trump say "Recession" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	SELL	9	43¢	$4	0x846c9a…
05-22 09:58:27	Will Trump say "Too late" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x57adaa…
05-22 09:53:05	Will Trump say "Jerome" or "Powell" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x704a86…
05-22 09:43:40	Will Trump say "Save America" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0x9516f2…
05-22 09:03:32	Will Bernie say "TSA" in Maine?	Yes	BUY	15	14¢	$2	0x7fa280…
05-22 08:24:39	Will Bernie say "Elon" or "Musk" in Maine?	No	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x633c0f…
05-22 07:58:43	Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0x8bc682…
05-22 07:58:41	Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	14	34¢	$5	0x5634ac…
05-22 07:55:20	Will Bernie say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" in Maine?	Yes	BUY	15	28¢	$4	0x90c088…
05-22 07:36:17	Will Trump say "Jerome" or "Powell" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	SELL	15	32¢	$5	0x86e0ca…
05-22 07:35:21	Will Trump say "Gold" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	BUY	15	36¢	$5	0x2063e9…
05-22 07:22:33	Will Trump say "Too late" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	BUY	15	43¢	$6	0x6e3ec3…
05-22 06:41:45	Will Trump say "AOC" or "Ocasio-Cortez" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	15	25¢	$4	0xc1ab35…
05-22 06:21:51	Will Trump say "Yankee" or "Yankees" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0xf7933f…
05-22 06:21:51	Will Trump say "Yankee" or "Yankees" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xd3b03d…
05-22 06:21:50	Will Trump say "Yankee" or "Yankees" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x5ce9df…
05-22 06:21:48	Will Trump say "Yankee" or "Yankees" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x663b20…
05-22 06:11:58	Will Bernie say "Fight" in Maine?	No	BUY	15	31¢	$5	0xf81c7a…
05-22 06:09:45	Will Trump say "Eight Wars" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	SELL	15	32¢	$5	0xe78bad…
05-22 06:07:34	Will Trump say "Favored Nation" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	15	41¢	$6	0xcfbd03…
05-22 05:19:25	Will Trump say "Favored Nation" during events in Rockland County?	No	SELL	10	42¢	$4	0xc96262…
05-22 05:04:27	Will Trump say "Inflation" 5+ times during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	SELL	15	48¢	$7	0xad0e0c…
05-22 05:02:09	Will Trump say "401k" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	15	37¢	$6	0x969f61…
05-22 05:01:58	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	11	42¢	$4	0x28445b…
05-22 05:01:14	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0xba7364…
05-22 04:46:52	Will Trump say "Good afternoon" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0xcfde74…
05-22 04:32:11	Will Trump say "Yankee" or "Yankees" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x494b3a…
05-22 04:27:38	Will Trump say "401k" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	15	42¢	$6	0xbcefc5…
05-22 04:05:16	Will Trump say "Eight Wars" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	15	28¢	$4	0x7d31d1…
05-22 04:04:39	Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	BUY	3	20¢	$1	0xdaa248…
05-22 02:37:46	Will Trump say "All time high" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	BUY	15	28¢	$4	0x262574…
05-22 01:55:32	Will Trump say "Recession" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	BUY	15	15¢	$2	0x6704db…
05-21 23:50:25	Will Trump say "Jerome" or "Powell" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0xb35a1c…
05-21 23:27:01	Will Bernie say "ICE" 5+ times in Maine?	Yes	BUY	15	19¢	$3	0x395e5f…
05-21 23:22:25	Will Bernie say "Climate" in Maine?	Yes	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0xe1eb0f…
05-21 23:10:48	Will Trump say "Job" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	BUY	15	15¢	$2	0x423206…
05-21 22:45:15	Will Trump say "Jerome" or "Powell" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	SELL	13	25¢	$3	0x128ab3…
05-21 22:44:54	Will Trump say "Jerome" or "Powell" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	SELL	2	25¢	$1	0xe61f19…
05-21 22:42:18	Will Trump say "Job" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	SELL	30	25¢	$7	0xf862b7…
05-21 22:06:22	Will Trump say "Booming" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0xabe5bc…
05-21 21:31:01	Will Trump say "Cut rate" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	SELL	15	38¢	$6	0x477ceb…
05-21 21:00:57	Will Trump say "Save America" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xdd1980…
05-21 21:00:29	Will Trump say "President Xi" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	SELL	15	55¢	$8	0xe58847…
05-21 21:00:12	Will Trump say "Border" 5+ times during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0x3f8b12…
05-21 20:59:54	Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0xc7e0d2…
05-21 20:58:28	Will Trump say "Favored Nation" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	15	39¢	$6	0x0fbc02…
05-21 20:41:14	Will Trump say "Oil" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x418151…
05-21 20:36:55	Will Bernie say "Robot" or "Robotic" or "Robotics" in Maine?	No	BUY	0	19¢	$0	0xeda0fb…
05-21 20:36:38	Will Bernie say "Robot" or "Robotic" or "Robotics" in Maine?	No	BUY	2	19¢	$0	0xdb90a7…
05-21 20:36:29	Will Bernie say "Robot" or "Robotic" or "Robotics" in Maine?	No	BUY	13	19¢	$2	0x79308a…
05-21 20:22:13	Will Bernie say "ICE" 5+ times in Maine?	Yes	BUY	15	22¢	$3	0x0f1a74…
05-21 20:13:37	Will Trump say "Inflation" 5+ times during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	BUY	15	44¢	$7	0xd7690a…
05-21 20:11:33	Will Trump say "Favored Nation" during events in Rockland County?	No	SELL	15	41¢	$6	0xae3896…
05-21 20:09:41	Will Trump say "War" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	SELL	13	43¢	$6	0x586e1c…
05-21 19:21:28	Will Trump say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	SELL	11	30¢	$3	0x7a8dcd…
05-21 19:11:14	Will Trump say "Radical Left" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0x322dcf…
05-21 19:08:13	Will Trump say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0x9c168f…
05-21 19:07:56	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	15	44¢	$7	0x87bde4…
05-21 17:46:33	Will Trump say "President Xi" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	15	42¢	$6	0x981da2…
05-21 17:41:15	Will Trump say "Too late" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0xef9a83…
05-21 17:41:15	Will Trump say "Too late" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	BUY	15	41¢	$6	0xef9a83…
05-21 17:36:37	Will Trump say "Oil" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xf90a91…
05-21 17:36:35	Will Trump say "Oil" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	BUY	12	36¢	$4	0x324c8f…
05-21 17:13:11	Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	15	18¢	$3	0x68e9f9…
05-21 16:08:42	Will Trump say "AOC" or "Ocasio-Cortez" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	3	28¢	$1	0xf278de…
05-21 15:19:12	Will Trump say "MAGA" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	15	45¢	$7	0x7b34ff…
05-21 14:56:34	Will Trump say "Border" 5+ times during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x1c8fb7…
05-21 14:56:10	Will Trump say "Favored Nation" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xe74551…
05-21 14:56:05	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	15	40¢	$6	0xfeaa32…
05-21 14:55:45	Will Trump say "Save America" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	15	44¢	$7	0x96c8cf…