False-Focus — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.15K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.8%

Resolved

Trades

120

lifetime

Volume

$7.88K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$66

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-04

last 08-01 16:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

52% 100% +$159

Politics

48% 50% +$995

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	12	$1.9K	1,670	1,668	+2	Yes	+$159	05-10 08:34
fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	3	$1.5K	1,089	1,089	+0	open	—	07-15 20:56
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	3	$1.1K	0	2,835	-2,835	No	+$1,106	05-04 16:10
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	6	$618	434	434	+0	open	—	05-15 14:53
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	8	$571	1,359	803	+556	open	—	06-14 20:27
netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	29	$329	2,421	0	+2,421	open	—	07-23 08:53
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	5	$245	701	175	+526	open	—	07-23 08:23
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	5	$201	540	0	+540	open	—	08-01 19:11
Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	14	$197	3,000	216	+2,784	No	$-111	05-07 21:20
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	2	$196	245	245	+0	open	—	07-19 20:38
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	3	$177	340	340	+0	open	—	05-13 11:58
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	4	$124	0	225	-225	open	—	06-08 05:46
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	4	$123	0	150	-150	open	—	06-07 21:13
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	3	$119	340	0	+340	open	—	07-23 08:40
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	2	$100	286	0	+286	open	—	07-08 20:35
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	4	$95	100	100	+0	open	—	05-16 21:17
fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 team to advance	3	$78	142	71	+71	open	—	07-06 20:27
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	1	$50	4,545	0	+4,545	open	—	05-11 20:06
fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 total 2pt5	1	$50	143	0	+143	open	—	06-28 19:09
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	2	$44	2,368	0	+2,368	open	—	07-17 19:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	1	$34	0	80	-80	open	—	07-08 13:16
fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 total 2pt5	1	$20	34	0	+34	open	—	07-04 20:09
fifwc che col 2026 07 07 total 2pt5	1	$20	48	0	+48	open	—	07-07 18:27
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	1	$19	0	20	-20	open	—	06-28 06:56
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	1	$4	0	10	-10	open	—	06-08 06:50
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	1	$1	40	0	+40	open	—	07-22 16:48
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	07-20 02:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-01 19:11:14	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	40¢	$60	0x12be1b…
08-01 16:45:59	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0xf331f9…
07-27 23:05:52	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	275	35¢	$96	0x92f626…
07-27 19:32:30	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xcddfba…
07-23 08:53:34	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	193	12¢	$23	0x2e0127…
07-23 08:40:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xc28876…
07-23 08:36:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	No	BUY	147	35¢	$51	0xb9bd9b…
07-23 08:23:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	175	26¢	$46	0xbda788…
07-23 08:22:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	No	BUY	190	35¢	$67	0x507bdb…
07-23 08:02:36	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0x05eed0…
07-23 05:08:45	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0x3745e6…
07-23 05:08:25	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0xf16e6c…
07-23 05:08:24	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0x58d5ce…
07-23 05:08:13	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0x9acc24…
07-23 05:08:13	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0x5f91c2…
07-23 05:08:03	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xd62273…
07-23 05:08:03	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0x0d7bc9…
07-23 04:37:48	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	140	13¢	$18	0xbe2519…
07-23 04:05:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x379179…
07-22 18:10:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	150	32¢	$48	0x97c002…
07-22 16:48:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0xea53f9…
07-22 16:47:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	190	27¢	$51	0x3af8a7…
07-22 05:45:55	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	520	13¢	$69	0x40ac0e…
07-22 05:44:15	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	180	12¢	$22	0x108df2…
07-22 05:33:51	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	14	12¢	$2	0x14f7f9…
07-22 00:50:43	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0xed7531…
07-21 21:27:19	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	151	12¢	$18	0xad645d…
07-21 17:20:39	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	150	13¢	$20	0xba3a98…
07-21 17:13:03	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0x7a2937…
07-21 16:16:01	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	120	15¢	$18	0xcd4742…
07-20 21:04:28	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	140	15¢	$21	0x48cbf3…
07-20 10:03:55	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	28	16¢	$4	0x1d9038…
07-20 02:15:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x445eb8…
07-19 21:23:07	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	118	17¢	$20	0xc8b89e…
07-19 20:38:13	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	SELL	245	39¢	$96	0xc5e978…
07-19 19:04:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	161	31¢	$50	0x0affa9…
07-19 13:51:42	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x1bf99d…
07-19 11:28:15	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	245	41¢	$100	0xe5714c…
07-18 08:05:31	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	95	20¢	$19	0xddaf65…
07-18 08:00:09	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x39ea08…
07-17 20:07:13	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	265	15¢	$39	0xbcd46e…
07-17 19:46:25	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	138	10¢	$13	0xe51012…
07-17 19:40:33	Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2,308	2¢	$43	0xbbcf99…
07-17 19:30:21	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x6dc3a7…
07-17 19:28:37	Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0x1f197e…
07-15 20:56:41	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	SELL	1,089	95¢	$1,032	0x543cf8…
07-15 18:26:58	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	1,087	46¢	$500	0x058c33…
07-15 18:22:53	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xa53f28…
07-08 20:35:05	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	BUY	283	35¢	$99	0xf6525e…
07-08 18:39:32	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x5d2e1e…
07-08 13:16:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	80	43¢	$34	0xed3b86…
07-07 18:27:32	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0x99b4a7…
07-06 20:27:46	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 team to advance	Portugal	SELL	71	38¢	$27	0x682e6f…
07-06 19:00:34	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 team to advance	Portugal	BUY	139	36¢	$50	0x0477d5…
07-06 18:56:58	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 team to advance	Portugal	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xa125cb…
07-04 20:09:19	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0xc76b3e…
06-28 19:09:43	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	143	35¢	$50	0x7f366c…
06-28 06:56:05	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0xff27a7…
06-14 20:27:34	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	728	24¢	$175	0xf9ee74…
06-14 20:03:39	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	24¢	$14	0x3052be…
06-14 18:50:28	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	24¢	$4	0xd67693…
06-10 22:17:06	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	147	27¢	$40	0x06aa79…
06-10 22:11:43	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	800	28¢	$224	0x621e2a…
06-10 22:09:48	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	27¢	$0	0xaefa7c…
06-10 22:09:48	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	27¢	$14	0xad8cd6…
06-10 22:04:24	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	359	28¢	$100	0x36d2f3…
06-08 06:50:42	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	10	42¢	$4	0xc6502f…
06-08 05:46:30	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	75	70¢	$52	0xcedbad…
06-08 04:22:30	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	9	70¢	$6	0x14439f…
06-08 04:14:36	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	29	70¢	$20	0x1d97b2…
06-07 21:43:58	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	112	40¢	$45	0xe91160…
06-07 21:13:55	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	38	94¢	$35	0x536733…
06-07 21:10:33	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	38	95¢	$36	0xd3952f…
06-07 19:03:15	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	38	69¢	$26	0xc62f22…
06-07 19:03:15	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	37	69¢	$26	0xa32e1b…
05-16 21:17:47	Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0xb0856f…
05-16 21:17:47	Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	60¢	$27	0x037614…
05-16 21:14:19	Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	50¢	$25	0x8ad2e7…
05-16 18:38:39	Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x0496b5…
05-15 14:53:53	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	No	SELL	206	80¢	$165	0x099c11…
05-15 14:52:30	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	No	SELL	11	80¢	$9	0x17235d…
05-15 14:20:53	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	No	SELL	217	71¢	$154	0xe8984d…
05-15 13:57:33	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	No	BUY	75	67¢	$50	0x843637…
05-15 13:57:11	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	No	BUY	299	67¢	$200	0x9f3f17…
05-15 13:55:36	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	No	BUY	60	66¢	$40	0xe707e3…
05-13 11:58:44	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	340	30¢	$102	0xd844e5…
05-11 20:06:20	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	4,545	1¢	$50	0x54781e…
05-10 08:34:39	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	424	62¢	$263	0xd05c37…
05-10 08:30:41	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	200	62¢	$124	0xe26304…
05-10 08:27:32	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	566	61¢	$345	0x924881…
05-10 08:24:08	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	60	61¢	$37	0x04394d…
05-10 08:20:41	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	418	60¢	$250	0x7329d4…
05-08 08:22:18	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	41	63¢	$26	0xabfafe…
05-08 08:12:18	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	26	63¢	$16	0x5b9303…
05-08 08:11:08	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	292	63¢	$184	0xf6ce91…
05-08 08:04:02	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	42	63¢	$26	0x247e99…
05-08 07:52:42	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x4d5f26…
05-07 21:20:44	Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	19	20¢	$4	0x4401fb…
05-07 21:19:54	Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	88	20¢	$18	0xb4d348…
05-07 21:13:27	Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	1	20¢	$0	0xcd5dba…