Incredible-Democracy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.1%

Resolved

Trades

812

lifetime

Volume

$1.85K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-04 14:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

67% 75% +$14

Other

23% 100% +$0

Politics

10% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	56	$155	210	160	+50	open	—	03-18 11:48
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	47	$98	135	130	+5	open	—	01-26 07:11
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	75	$92	303	303	+0	open	—	03-18 12:29
bitcoin up or down january 16 7am et	33	$89	100	100	+0	open	—	01-16 12:55
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	19	$64	55	55	+0	open	—	03-18 12:26
bitcoin up or down on january 18	10	$53	50	50	+0	open	—	01-18 12:53
bitcoin up or down on january 17	12	$48	60	60	+0	open	—	01-17 11:23
bitcoin up or down february 11 5am et	8	$40	40	40	+0	open	—	02-11 10:28
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	17	$36	171	161	+10	open	—	01-27 06:39
bitcoin up or down january 1 5am et	7	$33	30	30	+0	open	—	01-01 10:30
bitcoin up or down january 16 4am et	7	$30	30	30	+0	open	—	01-16 09:42
bitcoin up or down january 2 10am et	4	$30	20	20	+0	open	—	01-02 15:47
bitcoin up or down february 2 1am et	7	$29	30	30	+0	open	—	02-02 06:14
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	28	$28	269	269	+0	open	—	04-06 09:19
bitcoin up or down january 1 4am et	10	$23	31	31	+0	open	—	01-01 09:45
bitcoin up or down january 20 11am et	7	$23	30	20	+10	open	—	01-20 16:40
bitcoin up or down february 2 2am et	7	$23	20	30	-10	open	—	02-02 07:11
bitcoin up or down january 1 9am et	4	$22	20	20	+0	open	—	01-01 14:25
bitcoin up or down january 16 8am et	12	$21	25	25	+0	open	—	01-16 13:32
btc updown 15m 1767261600	4	$21	20	20	+0	open	—	01-01 10:01
btc updown 15m 1767264300	6	$20	18	18	+0	open	—	01-01 10:57
will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	4	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	02-04 08:29
bitcoin up or down january 28 12am et	6	$19	15	15	+0	open	—	01-28 05:40
btc updown 4h 1768208400	4	$19	20	20	+0	open	—	01-12 12:38
bitcoin up or down january 16 6am et	6	$19	20	20	+0	open	—	01-16 11:16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	03-19 03:43
bitcoin up or down february 6 8am et	7	$19	20	20	+0	open	—	02-06 13:37
bitcoin up or down january 16 5am et	4	$18	20	20	+0	open	—	01-16 10:09
bitcoin up or down january 30 6am et	8	$17	16	16	+0	open	—	01-30 11:34
bitcoin up or down february 2 3am et	6	$16	20	20	+0	open	—	02-02 08:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-04 14:03:52	xrp up or down on june 4 2026	Up	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x1dc024…
06-04 10:51:46	dogecoin up or down on june 4 2026	Up	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xd33af6…
06-04 10:35:06	dogecoin up or down on june 4 2026	Up	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x4a258d…
06-04 09:07:43	dogecoin up or down on june 4 2026	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x078447…
06-04 08:31:48	xrp up or down on june 4 2026	Up	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x0e3039…
06-04 07:47:39	dogecoin up or down on june 4 2026	Up	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x411cd6…
06-04 07:40:45	xrp up or down june 4 2026 3am et	Up	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xd88b33…
06-04 07:36:46	xrp up or down june 4 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xdbb0d5…
05-15 10:42:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xfcdc6e…
05-15 10:41:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xfa81d7…
05-15 10:37:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x060c8d…
05-15 10:35:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xb1f765…
05-15 10:35:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0x91fe2c…
05-12 09:14:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x23f674…
05-12 09:12:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	50¢	$0	0xa8dbbe…
05-12 09:11:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x843fd4…
05-12 09:11:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x052858…
05-12 09:09:41	Bengaluru 2: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Alastair Gray	Petr Bar Biryukov	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0x1276e2…
05-12 09:08:33	Bengaluru 2: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Alastair Gray	Petr Bar Biryukov	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xc99bc3…
05-05 11:11:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0xb92271…
05-05 11:10:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x0eb9cc…
05-05 10:57:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x64d91d…
05-05 10:52:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x0d6024…
05-05 10:51:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xad68fa…
05-05 10:48:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x6f76d7…
05-05 10:47:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xb016a4…
05-05 10:39:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x734b02…
05-05 10:05:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0xe199ba…
05-05 10:04:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xf1e42c…
05-05 10:03:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x8e0516…
05-05 10:01:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x2332c7…
05-05 10:00:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x282952…
05-05 10:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xc7f067…
05-05 07:32:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0xf5f1dd…
05-05 07:32:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	4	15¢	$1	0x8a1f4d…
05-05 07:26:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xbcf5ce…
05-01 13:42:04	UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)	Jack Della Maddalena	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x53fccf…
05-01 13:41:48	UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)	Carlos Prates	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xae0e07…
05-01 10:45:14	XRP Up or Down - May 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x56896a…
05-01 10:37:26	XRP Up or Down - May 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xd1733b…
04-14 12:45:05	btc updown 15m 1776169800	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x814025…
04-09 11:14:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	Yes	SELL	53	2¢	$1	0xe63672…
04-09 11:13:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x873a5b…
04-09 11:12:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	Yes	SELL	53	2¢	$1	0x74d3ec…
04-09 11:11:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0xfa4595…
04-09 05:35:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	Yes	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0xa3885e…
04-09 05:35:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x09ca71…
04-09 05:34:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	Yes	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0x80771e…
04-09 05:31:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xe6faea…
04-09 05:29:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	Yes	SELL	53	2¢	$1	0x9a782b…
04-09 05:28:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x05e9f4…
04-06 09:19:03	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x04761d…
04-06 09:18:15	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	250	0¢	$1	0x43ffc1…
04-06 09:17:35	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x8d18ec…
04-06 09:17:21	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x555d9c…
04-06 09:16:25	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x256f6c…
04-06 09:15:55	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6212b9…
04-06 09:14:41	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x448cf6…
04-06 09:13:55	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf0b945…
04-06 08:02:55	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xaad40f…
04-06 08:01:39	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc5cb93…
04-03 13:02:19	btc updown 15m 1775221200	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x1b6892…
04-03 12:52:03	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	2	81¢	$1	0x45ab88…
04-03 10:21:41	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x2a77e5…
04-03 10:17:51	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x21f367…
04-03 10:16:07	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xa69bc5…
04-03 10:15:17	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x989fb7…
04-03 09:58:41	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xaa2c8f…
04-03 09:56:55	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	65¢	$1	0x748d0a…
04-03 09:17:37	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xa8e228…
04-03 09:16:43	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x457734…
04-03 09:12:51	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x8ad780…
04-03 09:05:45	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	65¢	$1	0x9dd79a…
04-03 07:03:53	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xaee909…
04-03 06:56:45	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0x04618c…
04-03 06:55:45	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xb71563…
04-03 06:36:23	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xfe936d…
04-03 06:35:43	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xafd37b…
04-03 06:34:21	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	66¢	$1	0xed2047…
04-03 06:33:47	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x14ba5d…
04-03 06:32:05	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	66¢	$1	0x8cdd99…
04-03 06:00:33	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x7dfe63…
04-01 10:53:13	btc updown 15m 1775040300	Down	SELL	4	7¢	$0	0xa640b0…
04-01 10:49:19	btc updown 15m 1775040300	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xc6c967…
04-01 09:25:33	btc updown 15m 1775034900	Down	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xbcd58a…
04-01 04:53:27	btc updown 15m 1775018700	Down	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0x8a7f9c…
04-01 04:48:11	btc updown 15m 1775018700	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x01d510…
04-01 04:47:17	btc updown 15m 1775018700	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x119bed…
03-31 13:48:37	btc updown 15m 1774964700	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xd04449…
03-31 13:24:29	btc updown 15m 1774962900	Up	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x721c06…
03-31 13:20:15	btc updown 15m 1774962900	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xb09b7c…
03-31 12:55:31	btc updown 15m 1774962000	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x777dd3…
03-26 12:50:09	bitcoin up or down on march 26 2026	Down	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xd99870…
03-26 12:45:49	bitcoin up or down on march 26 2026	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xc27375…
03-23 05:05:45	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x79958a…
03-23 04:35:09	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x808130…
03-19 12:58:41	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xc61938…
03-19 12:58:11	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x3c1208…
03-19 12:54:47	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x06199d…
03-19 12:54:19	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x6271df…