Unnatural-Trellis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$11

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

75.9%

Resolved

Trades

1,971

lifetime

Volume

$14.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-22

last 05-21 11:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Other

29% 100% +$0

Sports

24% — —

Crypto

24% 51% $-11

Politics

23% 0% $-0

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 70 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran leadership change by April 30?	23	$453	266	266	+0	open	—	04-21 05:38
will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	12	$235	159	159	+0	open	—	04-12 18:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	17	$225	150	150	+0	open	—	04-17 12:51
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	9	$192	120	120	+0	open	—	04-21 05:39
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	13	$164	102	102	+0	open	—	04-21 05:39
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	18	$138	124	124	+0	open	—	04-07 23:23
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	9	$138	91	91	+0	open	—	04-21 05:40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	6	$133	80	80	+0	open	—	04-17 20:00
bun hsv aug 2026 04 04 hsv	10	$127	90	90	+0	open	—	04-04 15:15
nba lac por 2026 04 10	5	$127	95	94	+1	open	—	04-11 04:17
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	9	$126	72	72	+0	open	—	04-15 18:21
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	8	$112	76	76	+0	open	—	04-07 22:54
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	7	$105	60	60	+0	open	—	04-14 16:38
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	6	$104	60	60	+0	open	—	04-18 00:12
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?	6	$102	60	60	+0	open	—	04-21 05:39
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	5	$99	60	60	+0	open	—	04-21 05:39
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	6	$99	59	59	+0	open	—	04-21 05:38
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	6	$99	65	65	+0	open	—	04-12 19:18
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	8	$98	90	90	+0	open	—	04-17 16:35
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	6	$97	60	60	+0	open	—	04-21 05:38
nba hou gsw 2026 04 05	10	$96	115	113	+2	open	—	04-06 04:37
atp altmaie prizmic 2026 04 02	4	$91	60	59	+1	open	—	04-03 13:34
sea sas cag 2026 04 04 sas	7	$79	95	64	+31	open	—	04-04 14:40
nhl cal ana 2026 04 04	9	$77	60	60	+0	open	—	04-05 04:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	5	$76	60	60	+0	open	—	04-17 14:39
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	5	$75	50	50	+0	open	—	04-17 20:00
nhl chi sj 2026 04 06	4	$72	60	60	+0	open	—	04-07 04:36
nba gsw phx 2026 04 17	5	$70	60	59	+1	open	—	04-18 04:32
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	5	$69	38	38	+0	open	—	04-03 04:21
epl new sun 2026 03 22 draw	15	$69	41	41	+0	open	—	03-22 14:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-21 11:00:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0xed132e…
05-20 09:21:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0xde8429…
05-20 09:21:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xcbe449…
05-18 23:34:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x3969ce…
05-18 23:18:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x2a9e2d…
05-18 22:48:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x687a3b…
05-18 10:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xe444e2…
05-18 10:43:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x2f05b6…
05-18 10:23:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	69¢	$4	0x69f9c5…
05-17 22:28:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x60c916…
05-17 22:18:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x60471c…
05-17 21:59:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	6	94¢	$5	0x2f9235…
05-17 21:55:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	58¢	$3	0x6b6108…
05-17 21:45:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xe6805e…
05-17 21:38:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xef44f7…
05-17 21:14:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x7613a5…
05-17 21:04:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xe5c63f…
05-17 20:59:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	SELL	11	13¢	$1	0xaec108…
05-17 20:58:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	26¢	$3	0x494ed6…
05-17 20:44:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0x645b51…
05-17 20:43:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x16d8d3…
05-17 19:59:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xbd0c91…
05-17 19:59:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x9e87e2…
05-17 19:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xdf4ef9…
05-17 19:10:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x4e8dc1…
05-17 18:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x65e3f7…
05-17 18:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xf609c1…
05-17 18:29:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	SELL	8	79¢	$6	0xbbb994…
05-17 18:29:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x187401…
05-17 17:40:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0xddad4c…
05-17 17:38:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x189e2a…
05-17 17:13:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xe55df9…
05-17 17:07:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0x699f8b…
05-17 13:26:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0xdff288…
05-17 11:47:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0xeb45d8…
05-17 11:47:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x2d259e…
05-17 08:28:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x6262ae…
05-17 08:22:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x16d7bb…
05-16 22:18:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0xd4597d…
05-16 21:59:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xdf5d2d…
05-16 21:56:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x0e7da9…
05-16 21:42:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	88¢	$5	0x72f10a…
05-16 21:38:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x0340e5…
05-16 21:03:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x4bf5ed…
05-16 20:48:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x343106…
05-16 20:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x62f5a8…
05-16 20:24:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x2bdc80…
05-16 20:00:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xe7d0f6…
05-16 19:48:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x7e6f01…
05-16 19:25:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	36¢	$2	0x14a9d4…
05-16 19:04:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	45¢	$2	0xc83438…
05-16 18:58:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	87¢	$5	0x18da44…
05-16 18:48:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xac56fd…
05-16 18:38:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x385015…
05-16 18:29:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x0eee81…
05-16 18:15:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x318f32…
05-16 18:13:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	69¢	$4	0xfddf2f…
05-16 17:53:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0x962a8b…
05-16 17:48:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0x3ef773…
05-16 17:23:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0xc25d2d…
05-16 15:19:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x7aa068…
05-16 13:48:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$3	0x65d54d…
05-16 13:18:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0xc4ce1c…
05-16 12:28:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	16	52¢	$8	0xef6faf…
05-16 12:12:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	SELL	6	91¢	$6	0x5909b3…
05-16 12:03:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0xf6452d…
05-16 10:28:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xc9f415…
05-16 10:18:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xaff114…
05-16 10:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x4ec08b…
05-16 09:53:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xa63ad8…
05-16 09:02:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	16	54¢	$8	0x15d0ec…
05-16 08:51:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	6	8¢	$0	0xa1d4f4…
05-16 08:49:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	SELL	16	95¢	$16	0xb108a1…
05-16 08:48:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x5c43b1…
05-16 08:47:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	16	46¢	$8	0xf32782…
05-16 07:49:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	SELL	16	90¢	$14	0xa06f85…
05-16 07:47:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	16	44¢	$7	0x928fdc…
05-16 04:08:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	15	31¢	$5	0x7e0129…
05-16 01:39:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	SELL	16	82¢	$14	0x7ce30c…
05-16 01:38:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	16	40¢	$7	0x604684…
05-16 00:25:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x42781d…
05-16 00:24:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0x0b012b…
05-15 23:00:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xe9a95b…
05-15 22:58:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	15	58¢	$9	0x1e6cf4…
05-15 22:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x354ce1…
05-15 22:28:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	15	58¢	$9	0xa2e5d3…
05-15 07:53:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	16	48¢	$8	0x2e06eb…
05-13 11:08:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	SELL	15	92¢	$14	0x05236e…
05-13 11:05:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	15	46¢	$7	0xb2a66b…
05-13 04:31:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	16	48¢	$8	0x7720a6…
05-12 13:58:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x50c425…
05-12 13:55:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	17	63¢	$11	0x0d46c6…
05-12 05:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xb7e7f0…
05-12 05:58:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	49¢	$7	0x6e103e…
05-11 14:33:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x2a4c38…
05-11 14:32:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	16	85¢	$13	0x8d20d1…
05-11 13:55:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0xca45ac…
05-11 12:02:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	16	47¢	$7	0x9aa20c…
05-11 07:04:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	SELL	16	99¢	$15	0xe59000…
05-11 07:01:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0x5023ff…