Light-Pledge — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

62.1%

Resolved

Trades

119

lifetime

Volume

$167

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-27

last 06-22 13:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

83% 50% $-1

Politics

10% — —

Other

7% 0% $-1

Sports

1% 100% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 47 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No		+4	$2	84¢	$3	+$1	06-22 13:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8PM ET	5	$12	10	8	+2	open	—	04-28 02:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	3	$8	11	6	+4	Up	+$0	05-05 17:03
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	2	$7	7	7	+0	open	—	05-20 02:33
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	06-12 05:01
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3AM ET	6	$7	7	7	+0	open	—	04-28 07:32
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	5	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	04-28 08:56
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$6	6	6	+0	open	—	05-25 02:33
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	2	$6	5	5	+0	Up	$-0	05-05 16:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	4	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	04-28 05:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	4	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	04-27 23:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	2	$5	4	4	+0	open	—	04-27 22:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	4	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	04-27 22:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	2	$4	3	3	+0	Up	+$0	05-05 16:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	2	$4	5	4	+0	open	—	04-27 22:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	4	$4	34	0	+34	open	—	04-27 23:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	04-28 06:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	4	$3	6	5	+1	open	—	04-28 08:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	2	$3	3	3	+0	open	—	04-27 22:40
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	3	$3	12	1	+11	open	—	04-28 07:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	3	$3	7	0	+7	open	—	04-27 23:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	04-27 22:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	04-27 23:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	3	$3	4	1	+2	open	—	04-27 23:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	04-27 23:09
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	3	$3	5	2	+3	open	—	04-28 08:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	05-18 03:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	04-28 05:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	04-27 23:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	04-27 22:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-27 18:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 13:32:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x9f93ff…
06-22 13:28:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x6066a4…
06-17 05:57:10	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x000353…
06-12 05:01:48	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x3d74c1…
05-29 03:05:43	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xf600ad…
05-27 18:47:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x51f8d4…
05-27 18:46:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x866516…
05-27 18:41:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x73049c…
05-27 18:41:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x10a2e5…
05-25 02:33:37	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	74¢	$4	0x98372e…
05-23 21:02:55	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x8a990a…
05-20 02:33:29	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0x93dc95…
05-18 03:39:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	SELL	2	79¢	$1	0xcd8868…
05-18 03:38:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x68ffed…
05-18 03:25:09	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026?	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x6a2434…
05-18 03:24:31	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xd08ea4…
05-10 09:59:48	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x8ae07c…
05-09 14:05:23	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x3cb2f1…
05-05 17:05:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x407f01…
05-05 17:03:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x28f3be…
05-05 17:02:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	SELL	6	65¢	$4	0xe9c793…
05-05 17:00:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0xc4a540…
05-05 16:59:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0xc3330a…
05-05 16:55:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x7a3d8e…
05-05 16:51:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	SELL	3	80¢	$2	0x9d2687…
05-05 16:50:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xe8c8b7…
04-28 09:13:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x640a72…
04-28 09:09:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	SELL	4	2¢	$0	0xc27627…
04-28 09:06:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xce6ba3…
04-28 09:05:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xf6ff08…
04-28 09:00:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xddf3f1…
04-28 09:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xcb6d86…
04-28 08:56:44	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0xaa2462…
04-28 08:56:34	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xfb0583…
04-28 08:56:22	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x5263fd…
04-28 08:56:14	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x4f2a38…
04-28 08:55:26	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xe3b29c…
04-28 08:53:08	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xfc6fde…
04-28 08:52:20	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x500be4…
04-28 08:48:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0xc83fd2…
04-28 08:46:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x44411f…
04-28 08:45:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x925f2d…
04-28 08:45:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x309567…
04-28 08:33:32	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x2e4092…
04-28 08:32:54	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0xa074eb…
04-28 08:30:16	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x822420…
04-28 07:44:36	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	SELL	2	39¢	$1	0x3ad5b4…
04-28 07:43:22	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x2db215…
04-28 07:36:58	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x5fea1e…
04-28 07:36:26	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0xb9bab3…
04-28 07:35:54	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x0b2260…
04-28 07:32:50	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3AM ET	Down	SELL	5	30¢	$1	0xaa4580…
04-28 07:26:14	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xf3139a…
04-28 07:19:56	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x8f84a9…
04-28 07:19:10	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xc22af4…
04-28 07:11:30	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3AM ET	Down	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x7c56f6…
04-28 07:00:34	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xe58311…
04-28 06:46:00	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0xb7a953…
04-28 06:34:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0xb9d3b3…
04-28 06:33:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xd26956…
04-28 06:25:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xa54396…
04-28 06:20:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xcbb520…
04-28 05:59:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	SELL	3	90¢	$2	0xad051b…
04-28 05:58:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xf16a91…
04-28 05:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x82dc88…
04-28 05:55:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xdb000b…
04-28 05:44:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x7059d8…
04-28 05:40:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xb42e6a…
04-28 02:03:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8PM ET	Up	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x437a10…
04-28 00:20:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x2aca2a…
04-28 00:11:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xb247d4…
04-28 00:08:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8PM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xedd4a7…
04-28 00:01:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x6cc053…
04-27 23:52:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xef6ef4…
04-27 23:48:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xcc10d7…
04-27 23:46:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	SELL	1	52¢	$1	0x74ce5f…
04-27 23:45:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x33de42…
04-27 23:42:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	88¢	$1	0x2df91b…
04-27 23:42:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xefc56f…
04-27 23:36:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x2d33cd…
04-27 23:34:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xa984fe…
04-27 23:30:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x49262d…
04-27 23:26:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x3ccf74…
04-27 23:23:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x01c5ce…
04-27 23:22:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x7601bc…
04-27 23:20:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xb263aa…
04-27 23:17:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xf6bed9…
04-27 23:16:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x60ab0b…
04-27 23:16:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xe3aa9c…
04-27 23:15:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x2d0aee…
04-27 23:13:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x3309a0…
04-27 23:09:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0x76036a…
04-27 23:07:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xfc3d9e…
04-27 23:04:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x13a4a8…
04-27 23:03:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xbe95eb…
04-27 23:02:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0xdc70f3…
04-27 23:00:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x72c8fa…
04-27 22:56:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x79b500…
04-27 22:53:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	SELL	4	71¢	$3	0x51590e…
04-27 22:50:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x42b7f3…