Musty-Subsection — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

71.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.18K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$38

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-19

last 05-08 21:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

84% 63% +$98

Politics

9% — —

Other

7% 0% $-90

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	5	$159	127	127	+0	open	—	05-02 20:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	2	$154	95	95	+0	open	—	05-02 20:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	2	$140	76	76	+0	open	—	05-02 20:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	2	$137	88	88	+0	Up	+$37	05-06 17:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	2	$134	85	85	+0	Up	+$34	05-06 18:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	2	$128	68	68	+0	Up	+$8	05-06 18:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	2	$121	82	82	+0	Up	+$41	05-06 17:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	2	$94	58	58	+0	Up	+$22	05-06 17:35
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea	1	$90	105	0	+105	Sorana Cirstea	$-90	05-08 21:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$81	121	0	+121	open	—	05-08 20:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	2	$76	46	46	+0	Up	+$16	05-06 19:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	2	$75	63	63	+0	Down	$-5	05-06 17:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	2	$70	65	65	+0	open	—	05-02 19:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	1	$70	131	0	+131	Up	$-70	05-08 20:33
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$70	73	73	+0	open	—	05-06 06:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	4	$61	86	43	+43	Up	+$12	05-06 15:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$61	87	87	+0	open	—	04-21 14:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$54	87	0	+87	open	—	04-21 14:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	1	$50	90	0	+90	Down	$-50	05-08 17:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	1	$50	86	0	+86	open	—	05-02 20:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	3	$48	73	21	+52	Down	+$20	05-06 19:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	1	$40	64	0	+64	Down	$-40	05-06 19:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	1	$40	95	0	+95	Up	+$55	05-08 06:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	1	$30	62	0	+62	Up	+$32	05-07 14:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	1	$30	50	0	+50	open	—	05-02 16:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	1	$29	41	0	+41	Down	+$12	05-08 20:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	2	$25	39	39	+0	open	—	05-02 14:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	1	$25	58	0	+58	Down	$-25	05-08 20:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	1	$20	29	0	+29	Down	+$9	05-06 06:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	2	$11	20	20	+0	Down	$-9	05-06 19:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-08 21:17:22	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea	Aryna Sabalenka	BUY	105	86¢	$90	0xa84fc1…
05-08 20:56:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	41	70¢	$29	0x1fc593…
05-08 20:38:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x6a7ac8…
05-08 20:33:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	131	53¢	$70	0xad993f…
05-08 20:08:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0xab35c5…
05-08 19:06:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	118	67¢	$79	0x678d74…
05-08 19:03:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xc2b962…
05-08 17:55:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	90	55¢	$50	0x616390…
05-08 06:10:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	95	42¢	$40	0xbc8eb8…
05-07 14:20:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	62	48¢	$30	0xc35290…
05-06 19:59:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xc163e3…
05-06 19:55:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xa753cd…
05-06 19:46:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	SELL	21	38¢	$8	0x0f7319…
05-06 19:46:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	52	58¢	$30	0x3043c8…
05-06 19:46:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x48df4a…
05-06 19:45:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	SELL	46	99¢	$46	0x0a2ced…
05-06 19:44:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	46	65¢	$30	0xda339e…
05-06 19:07:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	64	63¢	$40	0xe54d98…
05-06 18:15:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	SELL	68	100¢	$68	0xf2e293…
05-06 18:14:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	68	88¢	$60	0xf2aac2…
05-06 18:10:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	SELL	85	99¢	$84	0xd95793…
05-06 18:07:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0x43a89a…
05-06 17:55:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	SELL	82	99¢	$81	0x724a2f…
05-06 17:50:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	82	49¢	$40	0x760882…
05-06 17:40:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	SELL	88	99¢	$87	0x40452a…
05-06 17:39:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0x19a150…
05-06 17:35:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	SELL	58	99¢	$58	0xaa8d1a…
05-06 17:30:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	58	62¢	$36	0x1473f3…
05-06 17:28:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	SELL	63	55¢	$35	0x6fa1b2…
05-06 17:26:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	63	63¢	$40	0xb5551e…
05-06 15:41:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	22	60¢	$13	0xcf73f5…
05-06 15:41:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	43	36¢	$15	0x647e18…
05-06 15:40:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	21	61¢	$13	0x43adf8…
05-06 15:40:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	43	47¢	$20	0xde459f…
05-06 06:06:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	29	68¢	$20	0x99837a…
05-06 06:06:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	73	34¢	$25	0xfa1e7c…
05-04 18:43:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	73	62¢	$45	0x770bcf…
05-02 20:16:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	86	58¢	$50	0x273bfe…
05-02 20:15:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	SELL	95	99¢	$94	0x4336a6…
05-02 20:11:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	95	63¢	$60	0x65ea62…
05-02 20:10:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	SELL	65	99¢	$65	0xb3f6ed…
05-02 20:09:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	11	81¢	$9	0xf11ee6…
05-02 20:08:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	SELL	62	16¢	$10	0x75e625…
05-02 20:08:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	54	83¢	$45	0xe66b10…
05-02 20:06:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	62	48¢	$30	0xed3078…
05-02 20:05:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	SELL	76	99¢	$75	0x601a33…
05-02 20:01:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	76	86¢	$65	0x53fd72…
05-02 19:59:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	65	47¢	$30	0x0b045f…
05-02 19:58:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	65	62¢	$40	0x7d7eb0…
05-02 16:35:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xdb50e3…
05-02 14:48:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	SELL	39	14¢	$5	0x005b1f…
05-02 14:45:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0x4ff1a8…
05-02 08:16:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x5daa6a…
04-21 14:48:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	42	71¢	$29	0x8345be…
04-21 14:46:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	87	34¢	$29	0x03cb59…
04-19 11:53:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	87	36¢	$31	0x375d8e…
04-19 11:30:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x3b2b6a…