Frozen-Capitulation-Graft — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$13

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

37.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$218

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-05

last 06-18 13:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 42% $-13

Politics

2% 0% $-0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	2	$13	20	0	+20	Up	$-3	05-10 23:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	2	$10	15	0	+15	Up	$-2	05-10 23:43
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	2	$9	20	0	+20	Down	+$12	05-09 09:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	2	$9	9	9	+0	Up	$-1	05-08 13:50
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	2	$7	21	0	+21	Up	$-0	05-10 15:13
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	2	$7	6	6	+0	Down	+$4	05-07 15:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	2	$7	7	7	+0	Up	$-1	05-08 11:06
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	2	$6	9	9	+0	Up	$-3	05-08 13:51
btc updown 5m 1781760600	2	$6	12	0	+12	open	—	06-18 05:34
btc updown 5m 1781786100	2	$6	12	0	+12	open	—	06-18 12:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Down	$-5	05-11 06:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	+$4	05-10 11:13
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Up	+$4	05-08 21:57
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Up	$-5	05-09 09:57
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	Up	+$2	05-08 01:25
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	1	$5	8	0	+8	Up	+$3	05-08 11:58
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Down	$-5	05-14 05:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	Up	+$2	05-07 22:11
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	05-14 09:02
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Down	$-5	05-14 05:58
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	05-25 03:01
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Down	$-5	05-09 16:03
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	$-5	05-09 19:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Up	+$4	05-08 01:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	2	$5	9	0	+9	Up	$-5	05-08 08:02
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Up	$-5	05-08 01:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	$-5	05-08 10:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Down	$-5	05-09 11:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Up	+$4	05-08 01:28
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	1	$4	7	0	+7	Up	+$2	05-09 01:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-18 13:29:31	btc updown 5m 1781789100	Down	BUY	15	14¢	$2	0xe7447c…
06-18 12:39:28	btc updown 5m 1781786100	Up	BUY	7	39¢	$3	0x46af2a…
06-18 12:39:25	btc updown 5m 1781786100	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x35128c…
06-18 05:34:13	btc updown 5m 1781760600	Up	BUY	6	41¢	$3	0x92284d…
06-18 05:34:01	btc updown 5m 1781760600	Down	BUY	6	56¢	$3	0x4e5fb6…
05-25 03:01:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xb1c6dc…
05-24 23:46:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x16b36e…
05-16 20:44:11	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x1cc61b…
05-16 19:44:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x70c731…
05-16 17:59:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x263e8d…
05-16 16:29:16	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	69¢	$1	0x274790…
05-16 14:14:21	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	17¢	$1	0x372680…
05-16 11:39:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x3486cb…
05-16 11:09:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	35¢	$1	0x5ab2cf…
05-16 10:09:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0x347b0a…
05-16 09:49:29	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x465b19…
05-14 09:02:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x75904f…
05-14 05:58:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xf7db5a…
05-14 05:08:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xab814c…
05-11 10:13:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	9	39¢	$4	0xc297bd…
05-11 06:58:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	60¢	$5	0xb6e07d…
05-10 23:43:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	72¢	$6	0x5219cb…
05-10 23:43:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0x6822bc…
05-10 23:33:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x362073…
05-10 23:32:37	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x9cf89e…
05-10 15:13:57	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	14	19¢	$3	0x916f87…
05-10 15:13:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0x6ef26f…
05-10 11:13:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x3a24c5…
05-09 19:43:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x6df3e0…
05-09 16:03:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xe1269b…
05-09 11:58:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x84e627…
05-09 11:07:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x0f63d5…
05-09 09:57:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x8709fb…
05-09 09:36:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	11	40¢	$4	0x0a6fba…
05-09 09:36:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x31694f…
05-09 01:08:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	7	64¢	$4	0x36fbc4…
05-08 21:57:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x2fb486…
05-08 13:51:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	SELL	9	18¢	$2	0x993650…
05-08 13:50:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	SELL	9	42¢	$4	0x632c55…
05-08 13:48:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x508942…
05-08 13:47:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0xbc9902…
05-08 11:58:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xba88a3…
05-08 11:06:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	SELL	7	36¢	$3	0x55ea43…
05-08 11:02:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0xb10b86…
05-08 10:11:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x1dcfdc…
05-08 08:02:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	56¢	$0	0xd04139…
05-08 08:02:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0xe21c48…
05-08 07:28:19	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0x52579b…
05-08 01:58:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0x1799d0…
05-08 01:42:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0xff31f0…
05-08 01:28:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x746cf5…
05-08 01:25:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x881210…
05-08 01:24:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x3b776b…
05-07 22:11:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x89ef08…
05-07 20:48:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	9	49¢	$4	0xb1a4b2…
05-07 15:19:36	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	3	55¢	$2	0xd05d17…
05-07 15:19:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xece071…
05-07 15:16:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x9f7502…
05-07 02:39:55	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0x87240c…
05-05 12:33:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xdbae7f…