Mature-Pulley — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$18

Unrealized P&L

-$16

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

101

lifetime

Volume

$1.21K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-22

last 06-16 18:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

49% — —

Crypto

29% 100% +$5

Other

21% 100% +$13

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes		+167	$10	1¢	$2	$-8	06-08 06:05
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes		+36	$10	6¢	$2	$-8	06-11 11:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$101	62	62	+0	open	—	03-05 18:18
btc updown 5m 1772735100	2	$81	63	62	+1	open	—	03-05 18:30
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?	2	$79	59	59	+0	open	—	02-28 07:37
israel closes its airspace by june 8	2	$74	45	45	+0	open	—	06-08 15:33
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	2	$73	44	44	+0	Yes	+$13	05-12 09:59
btc updown 5m 1772899200	2	$59	40	39	+1	open	—	03-07 16:05
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$58	48	48	+0	open	—	03-02 01:07
will usd reach 1pt7m iranian rials by february 28	2	$56	42	42	+0	open	—	02-28 19:45
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 360 379	2	$47	37	37	+0	open	—	02-24 18:39
btc updown 5m 1772030100	3	$43	122	22	+100	open	—	02-25 14:39
will israel strike 4 countries in march 2026	2	$30	93	0	+93	open	—	03-17 15:07
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	2	$30	80	80	+0	open	—	04-19 14:21
btc updown 5m 1776608100	2	$29	22	21	+1	open	—	04-19 14:18
will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	3	$25	197	0	+197	open	—	03-07 07:51
will iran strike israel on march 4	2	$24	190	190	+0	open	—	03-05 09:13
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$23	71	0	+71	open	—	03-03 21:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	2	$23	13	13	+0	Up	+$3	05-07 09:50
will israel strike lebanon on february 24 2026	2	$21	22	22	+0	open	—	02-24 13:10
will israel strike lebanon on february 22 2026	2	$21	13	13	+0	open	—	02-24 10:04
btc updown 5m 1772122200	2	$18	13	13	+0	open	—	02-26 16:15
btc updown 5m 1773334200	2	$15	45	45	+0	open	—	03-12 16:54
will iran strike cyprus in march	2	$14	38	38	+0	open	—	03-04 14:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	2	$13	11	11	+0	open	—	05-14 17:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	2	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	05-24 17:20
sea rom cre 2026 02 22 draw	2	$13	29	29	+0	open	—	02-22 21:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	2	$12	8	8	+0	Down	+$2	05-12 05:33
houthi strike on israel by february 28	2	$11	25	25	+0	open	—	02-28 22:06
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?	2	$11	111	111	+0	open	—	04-19 14:19
will israel strike gaza on february 25 2026	2	$10	28	28	+0	open	—	02-26 15:36
masoud pezeshkian out by march 31	1	$10	34	0	+34	open	—	03-05 08:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-16 18:54:32	fifwc arg alg 2026 06 16 spread home 2pt5	Argentina	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xb8ec70…
06-16 18:53:49	fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 first half total 2pt5	Over	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x829117…
06-15 21:11:18	fifwc ksa ury 2026 06 15 team total away 2pt5	Over	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xe06186…
06-11 17:18:30	btc updown 5m 1781198100	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x94a191…
06-11 11:12:55	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x555572…
06-08 15:33:10	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	45	96¢	$44	0xaa52cc…
06-08 15:28:18	will ghana reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134514	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x24d012…
06-08 06:05:12	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x8f9d16…
06-08 06:03:31	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	45	66¢	$30	0x4b1591…
05-24 17:23:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xf638d2…
05-24 17:20:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x33974a…
05-24 17:18:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x009386…
05-24 17:17:54	Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	126	4¢	$5	0x7a5fdd…
05-23 08:50:27	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x28352b…
05-22 15:45:28	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x7783a4…
05-14 17:33:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	SELL	11	78¢	$8	0xc2a7c6…
05-14 17:32:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xc09927…
05-12 09:59:57	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	44	97¢	$43	0xf42c65…
05-12 05:33:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	SELL	8	91¢	$7	0x6e2d2a…
05-12 05:30:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xadbcac…
05-07 09:50:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x630f7d…
05-07 09:48:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x46085d…
04-22 06:26:48	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0x58b325…
04-19 14:21:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	SELL	80	12¢	$10	0x60fd50…
04-19 14:19:54	Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	111	1¢	$1	0x1afc76…
04-19 14:18:54	btc updown 5m 1776608100	Up	SELL	21	89¢	$19	0x2f4abf…
04-19 14:16:08	btc updown 5m 1776608100	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xa8e9fc…
04-19 14:14:14	btc updown 5m 1776607800	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x261349…
04-19 14:12:22	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	44	68¢	$30	0xf7168c…
04-18 11:08:58	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	BUY	80	25¢	$20	0x7d234e…
04-12 12:19:35	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	No	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x67de5a…
04-12 12:17:31	Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x15972a…
03-27 06:37:43	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0xf17f6a…
03-23 21:52:37	elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 340 359	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x0a1074…
03-20 19:07:15	elon musk of tweets march 19 march 21 0 39	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x93e16b…
03-20 19:07:11	elon musk of tweets march 19 march 21 40 64	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x957a13…
03-17 15:07:15	will israel strike 4 countries in march 2026	Yes	BUY	66	30¢	$20	0xbef836…
03-12 16:54:45	btc updown 5m 1773334200	Up	SELL	45	10¢	$5	0x1c5a56…
03-12 16:52:51	btc updown 5m 1773334200	Up	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x4a2059…
03-10 15:57:39	btc updown 5m 1773158100	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x34ff9b…
03-10 15:01:47	Iran leadership change by March 13?	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xe44b9d…
03-10 08:42:09	btc updown 5m 1773132000	Up	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x1be74d…
03-09 17:10:05	will mrbeasts next video get between 46 and 49 million views on day 3	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0xc02b1d…
03-07 17:59:35	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 7 249 562	Yes	BUY	105	5¢	$5	0x0c4f12…
03-07 17:44:27	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	BUY	242	2¢	$5	0x37d066…
03-07 16:05:17	btc updown 5m 1772899200	Down	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0x08bbc4…
03-07 16:02:01	btc updown 5m 1772899200	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x2d113d…
03-07 07:51:23	will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	Yes	BUY	121	4¢	$5	0xefcb28…
03-05 18:32:59	btc updown 5m 1772735400	Down	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xe2606c…
03-05 18:30:41	btc updown 5m 1772735100	Down	SELL	62	99¢	$61	0xee8f32…
03-05 18:28:27	btc updown 5m 1772735100	Down	BUY	63	32¢	$20	0x717a14…
03-05 18:18:03	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	62	82¢	$51	0xc8edfb…
03-05 12:26:55	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 160 179	Yes	BUY	139	7¢	$10	0xcc015d…
03-05 12:20:59	will iran strike israel on march 5	No	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x735b3c…
03-05 09:13:27	will iran strike israel on march 4	Yes	SELL	190	10¢	$19	0xaa29f4…
03-05 08:45:07	will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0xd9958d…
03-05 08:40:25	masoud pezeshkian out by march 31	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x9e060d…
03-05 07:04:35	will iran strike israel on march 4	Yes	BUY	190	3¢	$5	0x0b1c80…
03-04 14:42:53	will iran strike cyprus in march	Yes	SELL	38	24¢	$9	0xcde05d…
03-03 21:12:15	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	22	16¢	$3	0x0aa7e7…
03-03 14:13:31	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0xe47fcb…
03-02 08:43:25	will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xdd2dde…
03-02 08:41:59	will israel strike 4 countries in march 2026	Yes	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x843d64…
03-02 01:07:25	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0xc38f94…
03-02 01:04:45	israel and saudi arabia normalize relations by march 31	Yes	SELL	114	3¢	$3	0x77b824…
03-02 01:03:17	will israel strike gaza on march 1 2026	Yes	SELL	16	1¢	$0	0x2eeeca…
03-01 22:02:53	btc updown 5m 1772402400	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x39dfd1…
03-01 21:51:55	btc updown 5m 1772401800	Up	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x7aada7…
03-01 21:30:21	will iran strike cyprus in march	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x8392a6…
02-28 22:06:07	houthi strike on israel by february 28	Yes	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0xc2e17c…
02-28 20:36:31	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	49	41¢	$20	0x8916b6…
02-28 20:27:19	israel and saudi arabia normalize relations by march 31	Yes	BUY	114	4¢	$5	0x3476a8…
02-28 20:25:13	will israel strike gaza on march 1 2026	Yes	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x94e251…
02-28 20:22:47	will israel strike iraq by february 28	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xb95de7…
02-28 19:45:33	will usd reach 1pt7m iranian rials by february 28	Yes	SELL	42	85¢	$36	0x0fdea9…
02-28 13:12:09	will usd reach 1pt7m iranian rials by february 28	Yes	BUY	42	47¢	$20	0x9ff102…
02-28 09:23:13	houthi strike on israel by february 28	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x12b13e…
02-28 07:37:27	US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	100¢	$59	0x32c4e6…
02-26 16:15:30	btc updown 5m 1772122200	Up	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x3f6be7…
02-26 16:14:06	btc updown 5m 1772122200	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xf2164a…
02-26 15:36:56	will israel strike gaza on february 25 2026	Yes	SELL	28	0¢	$0	0x88119e…
02-25 14:39:20	btc updown 5m 1772030100	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xc9ee6b…
02-25 14:38:44	btc updown 5m 1772030100	Down	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x237348…
02-25 14:36:32	btc updown 5m 1772030100	Down	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x1c0fca…
02-25 06:54:40	will israel strike gaza on february 24 2026	Yes	SELL	1	7¢	$0	0x068f03…
02-25 06:52:54	will israel strike gaza on february 24 2026	Yes	SELL	8	8¢	$1	0xbc0fcd…
02-24 19:26:28	will israel strike gaza on february 24 2026	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x4bed44…
02-24 19:16:56	btc updown 5m 1771960500	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xd091b2…
02-24 19:04:06	will israel strike gaza on february 25 2026	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xdd2e25…
02-24 19:01:26	us x iran meeting by february 28 2026 791	No	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xbd15f9…
02-24 18:39:14	elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 360 379	Yes	SELL	37	100¢	$37	0x7c2bcc…
02-24 13:10:32	will israel strike lebanon on february 24 2026	Yes	SELL	22	52¢	$11	0x226038…
02-24 13:09:30	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x599617…
02-24 10:07:18	btc updown 5m 1771927500	Down	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0xa510e6…
02-24 10:04:32	will israel strike lebanon on february 22 2026	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x36efdf…
02-23 19:05:14	will israel strike lebanon on february 24 2026	Yes	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xc7c4c0…
02-23 14:46:38	US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	34¢	$20	0xec29f7…
02-22 21:49:08	will israel strike lebanon on february 22 2026	No	BUY	13	58¢	$8	0xfda1fa…
02-22 21:10:32	sea rom cre 2026 02 22 draw	Yes	SELL	29	9¢	$3	0x6c5df5…
02-22 21:07:32	elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 360 379	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xe975a4…