Complicated-Bias — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$15.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$459

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-19

last 07-12 00:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

82% 100% +$3

Politics

18% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets march 2026 1280 1319	7	$4.9K	2,753	2,753	+0	open	—	03-20 21:38
Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026?	4	$2.7K	2,034	2,033	+1	open	—	03-20 19:24
will miguel roca win the 2026 la paz mayoral election	3	$2.6K	1,422	1,422	+0	open	—	03-20 18:50
will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	3	$2.5K	1,370	1,370	+0	open	—	03-20 11:52
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	3	$2.3K	1,292	1,292	+0	No	+$3	03-20 21:04
Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?	3	$177	2,212	2,212	+0	No	+$0	03-20 12:06
val ep1 bar 2026 03 19 map handicap away 1pt5	2	$111	173	0	+173	open	—	03-19 14:40
cs2 mouz mglz 2026 03 19 game1	1	$102	160	0	+160	open	—	03-19 11:44
will 45 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	3	$100	877	877	+0	open	—	03-20 08:52
fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 total 4pt5	1	$19	21	0	+21	open	—	06-12 08:16
es2 lpm mal 2026 06 07 total 4pt5	1	$19	21	0	+21	open	—	06-07 03:07
kor seo gwo 2026 07 12 total 0pt5	1	$15	17	0	+17	open	—	07-12 00:45
Henan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 5.5	1	$12	13	0	+13	open	—	05-30 05:06
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)	1	$11	12	0	+12	open	—	05-14 14:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-12 00:45:31	kor seo gwo 2026 07 12 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	17	90¢	$15	0x73bc7a…
06-12 08:16:45	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	21	92¢	$19	0xfd0a63…
06-07 03:07:00	es2 lpm mal 2026 06 07 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	21	91¢	$19	0x3067c8…
05-30 05:06:57	Henan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	13	91¢	$12	0xa71147…
05-14 14:56:26	Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)	Valencia CF	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0xddf6a4…
03-20 21:38:49	elon musk of tweets march 2026 1280 1319	No	SELL	81	81¢	$66	0x366efe…
03-20 21:35:51	elon musk of tweets march 2026 1280 1319	No	SELL	1,277	89¢	$1,137	0x28562b…
03-20 21:27:49	elon musk of tweets march 2026 1280 1319	No	BUY	1,278	88¢	$1,118	0x78e6a3…
03-20 21:27:49	elon musk of tweets march 2026 1280 1319	No	BUY	80	88¢	$70	0x6997c2…
03-20 21:04:21	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	1,292	91¢	$1,176	0x7e1768…
03-20 20:56:51	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	1,050	91¢	$953	0xa1ae7f…
03-20 20:56:51	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	242	91¢	$220	0x24edb4…
03-20 20:30:03	elon musk of tweets march 2026 1280 1319	No	SELL	1,395	90¢	$1,260	0x2ae2c6…
03-20 20:24:31	elon musk of tweets march 2026 1280 1319	No	BUY	1,173	90¢	$1,051	0xaa013d…
03-20 20:24:31	elon musk of tweets march 2026 1280 1319	No	BUY	222	90¢	$199	0x007637…
03-20 19:24:45	Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	654	9¢	$60	0x4dedb8…
03-20 19:17:39	Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	655	10¢	$66	0xdb7689…
03-20 18:50:55	will miguel roca win the 2026 la paz mayoral election	No	SELL	674	92¢	$618	0x1e61af…
03-20 18:50:55	will miguel roca win the 2026 la paz mayoral election	No	SELL	748	92¢	$686	0x0271e3…
03-20 18:45:15	will miguel roca win the 2026 la paz mayoral election	No	BUY	1,422	92¢	$1,303	0xe7d62e…
03-20 12:18:29	Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	1,379	93¢	$1,288	0x84e92c…
03-20 12:12:59	Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	1,379	94¢	$1,291	0x5b4840…
03-20 12:06:07	Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	2,212	4¢	$88	0xf68fe9…
03-20 11:58:09	Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	1,108	4¢	$44	0xcf9b34…
03-20 11:58:07	Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	1,104	4¢	$44	0x116caf…
03-20 11:52:49	will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	Yes	SELL	485	91¢	$440	0x6f42e7…
03-20 11:52:49	will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	Yes	SELL	885	91¢	$804	0x59cdd9…
03-20 11:42:59	will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	Yes	BUY	1,370	91¢	$1,241	0xc07060…
03-20 08:52:29	will 45 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	Yes	SELL	877	6¢	$49	0xc3116d…
03-20 08:45:47	will 45 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	Yes	BUY	308	6¢	$18	0x72734e…
03-20 08:45:45	will 45 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	Yes	BUY	569	6¢	$33	0xe5d685…
03-19 14:40:17	val ep1 bar 2026 03 19 map handicap away 1pt5	Barça eSports	BUY	21	64¢	$13	0x4527bd…
03-19 14:40:15	val ep1 bar 2026 03 19 map handicap away 1pt5	Barça eSports	BUY	152	64¢	$97	0xa436f2…
03-19 11:44:01	cs2 mouz mglz 2026 03 19 game1	MOUZ	BUY	160	64¢	$102	0xd5ad56…