Stimulating-Decoder — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.1%

Resolved

Trades

187

lifetime

Volume

$11.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$60

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 07-08 08:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

72% 100% +$15

Other

26% — —

Crypto

2% 0% $-7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	19	$1.1K	2,058	1,908	+150	open	—	04-19 07:23
will israel strike lebanon on march 3 2026	2	$937	512	512	+0	open	—	03-02 13:34
will iran strike jordan in march	4	$909	655	512	+143	open	—	03-04 09:55
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	4	$854	792	792	+0	open	—	03-09 19:33
will iran strike nine or more countries in march	4	$750	460	460	+0	open	—	03-05 15:48
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	11	$720	1,999	1,824	+176	open	—	02-28 06:39
will crude oil cl hit low 85 by march 13 213 135 835	3	$642	470	470	+0	open	—	03-09 22:19
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	3	$614	915	915	+0	open	—	03-03 15:37
will qatar strike iran by march 31	4	$540	759	759	+0	open	—	03-08 12:08
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	8	$493	1,372	1,372	+0	open	—	03-01 21:29
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	4	$382	4,150	4,150	+0	open	—	02-04 18:04
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	8	$377	1,053	1,053	+0	open	—	03-31 21:35
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	4	$356	1,660	1,660	+0	open	—	01-30 23:50
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	2	$354	545	545	+0	open	—	03-08 12:07
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	7	$329	862	862	+0	open	—	04-17 13:26
naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	21	$275	500	500	+0	open	—	03-25 12:47
will iran strike israel on march 3	4	$210	200	200	+0	open	—	03-03 21:09
odds of khamenei being out as supreme leader by march 31 over 50 in february	3	$183	450	150	+300	open	—	02-28 13:39
houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	6	$131	161	161	+0	open	—	04-04 17:41
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 4 2026	3	$121	156	156	+0	open	—	03-04 09:24
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?	1	$100	418	0	+418	open	—	02-26 15:29
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	4	$95	234	234	+0	No	+$15	05-04 18:32
will the number of israel rocket alerts since operation lions roar be at least 20000 by march 20 423	3	$87	140	140	+0	open	—	03-20 06:20
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	2	$85	569	569	+0	open	—	04-03 22:55
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	2	$53	100	100	+0	open	—	04-26 20:42
will turkey strike iran by march 31	1	$50	230	0	+230	open	—	03-04 11:55
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$50	439	0	+439	open	—	01-18 19:47
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	1	$50	158	0	+158	open	—	05-19 08:49
btc updown 5m 1773262200	2	$37	251	125	+125	open	—	03-11 20:54
will trump declare war on iran by march 31 2026	2	$31	100	100	+0	open	—	03-28 12:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-08 08:44:34	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 total 5pt5	Over	BUY	179	6¢	$10	0xb77c4c…
07-07 16:46:10	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 btts first half	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xc0a738…
05-19 08:59:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	182	11¢	$20	0xa822e5…
05-19 08:49:11	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	158	32¢	$50	0x4b03b6…
05-08 18:03:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0x625095…
05-08 18:01:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xb4bf71…
05-04 18:32:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	80	34¢	$27	0x9518cb…
05-04 13:23:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	80	25¢	$20	0xd4deaa…
05-03 06:25:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	154	18¢	$28	0xfb6ab2…
05-02 20:46:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	154	13¢	$20	0xb86eee…
04-26 20:42:04	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0x2df1be…
04-20 08:28:04	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0xd48f5c…
04-19 07:23:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	149	20¢	$30	0xbcabca…
04-18 08:30:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	299	39¢	$117	0xfd9c79…
04-17 19:29:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	386	35¢	$135	0x6d8eb8…
04-17 19:29:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x0b3db9…
04-17 19:29:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	0	35¢	$0	0xc67a5a…
04-17 19:29:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	11	35¢	$4	0x22c7f4…
04-17 13:38:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	198	46¢	$91	0x5fec89…
04-17 13:26:10	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	578	6¢	$34	0xbd24ca…
04-12 19:09:37	btc updown 5m 1776020700	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x0a8c6f…
04-12 13:48:23	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x2af9ef…
04-12 12:55:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	396	17¢	$66	0x0149a0…
04-05 10:37:15	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	211	21¢	$44	0xf3d676…
04-04 18:19:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	444	9¢	$40	0xce7a6b…
04-04 17:41:47	houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	Yes	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0xc98037…
04-04 17:41:43	houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	Yes	SELL	31	50¢	$16	0xef9a1c…
04-04 17:41:43	houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	Yes	SELL	60	50¢	$30	0xd06fd4…
04-04 17:41:43	houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	Yes	SELL	60	50¢	$30	0xb31058…
04-04 17:41:43	houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	Yes	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x197fe4…
04-04 17:38:45	houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	Yes	BUY	161	31¢	$50	0x82243d…
04-03 22:55:15	Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	569	9¢	$53	0x21c010…
04-03 19:43:51	Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	569	5¢	$31	0x1e1fc2…
04-03 19:43:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	348	9¢	$31	0x5f4383…
04-01 09:48:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	42	22¢	$9	0xa3f8ba…
04-01 08:36:27	btc updown 5m 1775032500	Up	BUY	10	56¢	$5	0x70b669…
03-31 21:35:15	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	234	2¢	$5	0x48abc2…
03-28 17:24:37	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	234	29¢	$67	0x6f4822…
03-28 17:08:43	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	167	40¢	$67	0x1e86c4…
03-28 17:05:27	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	167	33¢	$56	0xead6d6…
03-28 17:04:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	218	25¢	$54	0x206c88…
03-28 12:46:29	will trump declare war on iran by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x712af8…
03-27 16:08:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	124	27¢	$33	0xa77ef0…
03-25 12:47:21	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	209	9¢	$19	0x517470…
03-25 09:26:33	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	93	9¢	$8	0xd6b5d2…
03-25 08:31:07	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	25	9¢	$2	0xa3c0bf…
03-25 08:30:57	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	41	9¢	$4	0x71897d…
03-25 08:20:31	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	3	9¢	$0	0xd4046b…
03-24 17:17:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	103	38¢	$39	0x7aff7c…
03-24 17:16:43	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	652	6¢	$39	0x3bdcb8…
03-24 11:01:05	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	250	9¢	$23	0x608d61…
03-23 14:27:31	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	30¢	$23	0xd9055d…
03-23 14:04:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	160	39¢	$62	0xa25bab…
03-23 14:03:43	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	206	30¢	$62	0x4f8f9c…
03-23 13:14:21	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	315	33¢	$105	0xe16a0b…
03-23 12:09:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	300	35¢	$105	0xbd131e…
03-21 16:37:49	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	119	16¢	$19	0x83756c…
03-20 06:20:09	will the number of israel rocket alerts since operation lions roar be at least 20000 by march 20 423	Yes	SELL	140	12¢	$17	0x65d439…
03-19 16:49:01	will the number of israel rocket alerts since operation lions roar be at least 20000 by march 20 423	Yes	BUY	111	50¢	$56	0xd6c028…
03-19 14:57:49	will the number of israel rocket alerts since operation lions roar be at least 20000 by march 20 423	Yes	BUY	29	50¢	$14	0xf70080…
03-18 07:06:09	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	252	20¢	$50	0xb42ca5…
03-17 18:18:41	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	77	40¢	$31	0x758481…
03-17 18:13:23	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	51	40¢	$21	0xbe2f79…
03-15 13:14:07	btc updown 15m 1773579600	Up	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xfe92f9…
03-15 13:09:49	btc updown 15m 1773579600	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xcc3788…
03-14 22:53:41	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	43	35¢	$15	0xf4a08a…
03-14 21:09:59	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	89	35¢	$31	0xf64e4a…
03-14 20:34:33	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	53	35¢	$19	0xe1bdf6…
03-14 20:17:45	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	23	35¢	$8	0xb13c70…
03-14 14:48:21	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x13a8e9…
03-14 14:18:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	294	34¢	$100	0xd2cd6c…
03-14 14:15:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	324	34¢	$110	0x762146…
03-14 13:12:51	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x169fef…
03-14 10:58:41	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	31	35¢	$11	0x96d8f3…
03-14 10:10:03	btc updown 5m 1773482700	Down	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0x302c86…
03-13 11:23:51	btc updown 5m 1773400800	Up	BUY	108	5¢	$5	0x95f65a…
03-12 18:39:29	btc updown 5m 1773340500	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x21c46b…
03-12 11:53:23	btc updown 5m 1773316200	Up	BUY	139	4¢	$5	0xdd3b93…
03-11 21:13:13	btc updown 5m 1773263400	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x1396b4…
03-11 21:12:29	btc updown 5m 1773263400	Up	BUY	139	7¢	$10	0x3db078…
03-11 21:09:59	btc updown 5m 1773263100	Up	SELL	333	1¢	$3	0xab80b3…
03-11 21:09:45	btc updown 5m 1773263100	Up	BUY	333	3¢	$10	0x1895e1…
03-11 20:54:03	btc updown 5m 1773262200	Up	SELL	125	22¢	$27	0x599341…
03-11 20:53:35	btc updown 5m 1773262200	Up	BUY	251	4¢	$10	0x34845f…
03-11 19:48:25	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	41	41¢	$17	0xd12af1…
03-11 19:44:37	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	46	41¢	$19	0x8d008e…
03-11 19:25:17	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	9	41¢	$4	0xcb22f7…
03-11 19:24:37	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	117	41¢	$48	0xab85e0…
03-11 19:24:25	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x492606…
03-11 19:07:01	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xe318b4…
03-11 19:05:57	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	32	41¢	$13	0x336cbf…
03-09 22:19:25	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by march 13 213 135 835	Yes	SELL	470	61¢	$288	0x074641…
03-09 19:53:29	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by march 13 213 135 835	Yes	BUY	327	78¢	$254	0x20c8b7…
03-09 19:43:41	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by march 13 213 135 835	Yes	BUY	144	70¢	$100	0xfe9195…
03-09 19:34:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x5caea7…
03-09 19:33:17	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	SELL	594	47¢	$279	0x5cd50e…
03-08 12:08:23	will qatar strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	380	25¢	$95	0x7d5323…
03-08 12:07:49	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	545	33¢	$180	0x1eed78…
03-08 10:58:57	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	545	32¢	$174	0xe0b4d3…
03-08 10:58:41	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	SELL	198	88¢	$174	0x160aa6…