Tough-Knowhow — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$35

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

41.1%

Resolved

Trades

538

lifetime

Volume

$15.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-06

last 05-08 01:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 38% $-35

Other

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 101 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	5	$731	1,526	506	+1,020	open	—	04-24 21:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	5	$580	438	419	+20	open	—	04-24 22:45
btc updown 5m 1777040700	2	$530	285	283	+3	open	—	04-24 14:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	2	$448	567	0	+567	open	—	04-25 12:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	3	$414	534	0	+534	open	—	04-24 23:14
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	3	$395	676	0	+676	open	—	04-24 21:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	1	$376	387	0	+387	open	—	04-25 22:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	1	$375	446	0	+446	open	—	04-25 19:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	2	$362	705	0	+705	open	—	04-24 23:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	1	$321	871	0	+871	open	—	04-25 22:46
btc updown 15m 1777031100	1	$250	325	0	+325	open	—	04-24 11:50
btc updown 5m 1775598300	4	$221	131	107	+24	open	—	04-07 21:50
btc updown 5m 1775599200	3	$214	119	118	+2	open	—	04-07 22:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	2	$212	159	152	+7	open	—	04-25 22:10
btc updown 5m 1775596200	3	$207	111	110	+1	open	—	04-07 21:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	2	$203	478	0	+478	open	—	04-25 22:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	2	$195	256	246	+10	open	—	04-25 22:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	4	$187	165	158	+7	open	—	04-24 22:31
btc updown 5m 1776476700	3	$184	190	107	+84	open	—	04-18 01:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	3	$181	352	0	+352	open	—	04-24 21:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	2	$170	510	0	+510	open	—	04-25 19:33
btc updown 5m 1775603100	4	$155	107	103	+4	open	—	04-07 23:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	4	$152	125	125	+0	Down	+$96	05-07 02:25
btc updown 5m 1775603700	2	$148	102	98	+4	open	—	04-07 23:21
btc updown 15m 1777028400	3	$144	98	95	+3	open	—	04-24 11:07
btc updown 5m 1775609100	2	$141	171	0	+171	open	—	04-08 00:46
btc updown 5m 1775602200	4	$129	88	85	+3	open	—	04-07 22:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	1	$125	260	0	+260	open	—	04-25 21:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	1	$125	192	0	+192	open	—	04-25 22:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	1	$125	286	0	+286	open	—	04-25 12:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-08 01:27:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	314	37¢	$117	0x39f70c…
05-08 01:10:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	227	11¢	$25	0x977cc3…
05-08 00:58:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	61	38¢	$23	0xa70cc1…
05-08 00:58:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	62	40¢	$25	0x6cb1b1…
05-08 00:56:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0x8c363d…
05-08 00:27:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xdffa88…
05-08 00:27:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	275	4¢	$11	0x0617e8…
05-08 00:17:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xe4f6d8…
05-08 00:16:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xb05b2d…
05-08 00:15:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x6b64e1…
05-08 00:15:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0x078dd3…
05-07 23:01:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	21	43¢	$9	0x486402…
05-07 19:29:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x67ea4f…
05-07 19:22:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0xcb458f…
05-07 19:22:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	41¢	$3	0xa523e1…
05-07 19:22:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	63	41¢	$26	0xa3b356…
05-07 19:22:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x1a82a2…
05-07 19:21:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x675027…
05-07 19:20:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x16bcea…
05-07 19:19:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0x2cbb91…
05-07 19:18:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	135	7¢	$10	0x6e5fed…
05-07 19:16:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x6b9d61…
05-07 19:15:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x9997e6…
05-07 19:14:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	46	50¢	$23	0x3b5f37…
05-07 19:11:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	113	30¢	$34	0x466073…
05-07 19:10:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x63bf65…
05-07 19:08:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x7e1e56…
05-07 19:08:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	54	34¢	$19	0x247999…
05-07 14:39:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	48	48¢	$23	0x884f13…
05-07 02:42:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	69	35¢	$24	0xfa811c…
05-07 02:39:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	211	6¢	$13	0xbcb14c…
05-07 02:38:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	39	23¢	$9	0xb466e4…
05-07 02:28:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	34	47¢	$16	0x013eb7…
05-07 02:27:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x68a948…
05-07 02:25:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	SELL	125	99¢	$124	0x258f33…
05-07 02:23:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	94	16¢	$15	0x37a189…
05-07 02:23:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x2e5a50…
05-07 02:21:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0xaf0c19…
05-02 09:41:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x557f65…
05-02 09:41:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xbe3f12…
05-02 09:41:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x5c9368…
05-02 09:40:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x81e04c…
05-02 09:37:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	12	34¢	$4	0xdbf56e…
04-27 12:34:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	119	55¢	$65	0x6c80cb…
04-27 12:28:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xaa051e…
04-27 12:22:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	149	17¢	$25	0x0a7716…
04-27 12:13:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	66	49¢	$32	0xa89b2e…
04-27 12:08:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	33	51¢	$17	0xb68b00…
04-27 00:56:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	224	45¢	$101	0x6e20f6…
04-27 00:52:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	21	52¢	$11	0x478cd1…
04-27 00:51:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x69dd57…
04-26 00:54:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	91	83¢	$75	0xd0d2a4…
04-26 00:48:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x3dd478…
04-26 00:47:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	18	44¢	$8	0xe5e9dc…
04-26 00:04:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	227	11¢	$25	0xb8e875…
04-26 00:02:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	25	63¢	$16	0xb784af…
04-25 22:46:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	871	37¢	$321	0xaef09c…
04-25 22:43:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	SELL	246	30¢	$75	0xf97afe…
04-25 22:39:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	256	47¢	$121	0x0ffcc3…
04-25 22:38:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	97	16¢	$16	0x438490…
04-25 22:35:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	381	49¢	$187	0x4c9c65…
04-25 22:33:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	387	97¢	$376	0x0f8e0d…
04-25 22:28:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	192	65¢	$125	0x2746bf…
04-25 22:13:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	132	19¢	$25	0xf6cc0e…
04-25 22:10:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	SELL	152	99¢	$150	0x9977f4…
04-25 22:07:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	159	39¢	$62	0xd4e6e0…
04-25 22:07:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	126	50¢	$63	0xfbf0fe…
04-25 21:59:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	260	48¢	$125	0x2fd07f…
04-25 20:39:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	41	44¢	$18	0xfc097f…
04-25 20:19:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	14	51¢	$7	0xe0e651…
04-25 20:13:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	135	48¢	$65	0x63e947…
04-25 20:12:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	74	61¢	$45	0x996da4…
04-25 19:33:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	182	11¢	$20	0x301d4c…
04-25 19:31:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	329	46¢	$150	0x9da777…
04-25 19:27:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	218	19¢	$41	0x6d55ef…
04-25 19:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	446	84¢	$375	0x484388…
04-25 19:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	4,800	1¢	$48	0xb84cd8…
04-25 19:02:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	11	25¢	$3	0xf04422…
04-25 19:01:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	81	31¢	$25	0x8038b1…
04-25 19:01:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	62	41¢	$25	0xf8a594…
04-25 18:57:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	83	30¢	$25	0xf6a9f7…
04-25 18:53:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	238	45¢	$106	0xafd227…
04-25 18:05:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0x7caa2a…
04-25 18:00:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	59	51¢	$30	0x5d14f7…
04-25 17:56:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	75	20¢	$15	0x7fa87b…
04-25 17:54:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x892b3b…
04-25 17:50:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	63	46¢	$29	0x394a5c…
04-25 16:07:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	30	44¢	$13	0x5b3487…
04-25 15:59:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	28	50¢	$14	0x514e73…
04-25 15:59:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	47	61¢	$28	0x58fb11…
04-25 15:58:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0xdce289…
04-25 15:55:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	49	39¢	$19	0x459044…
04-25 15:47:50	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	SELL	84	100¢	$84	0x51e2b8…
04-25 15:10:24	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	86	12¢	$10	0x2257b0…
04-25 15:10:16	Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xc59d2a…
04-25 14:06:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x300fe0…
04-25 14:06:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0xb0cbf3…
04-25 13:59:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x66befd…
04-25 13:59:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xf42091…
04-25 13:58:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x301eaa…