Obedient-Rule — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$797

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

43.0%

Resolved

Trades

115

lifetime

Volume

$4.02K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$35

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-25

last 05-09 05:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 46% $-798

Other

1% 100% +$2

Politics

1% 50% $-1

Sports

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 72 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	4	$835	682	682	+0	Down	+$225	05-07 02:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	11	$502	1,166	1,166	+0	Down	$-148	05-07 07:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	4	$436	851	213	+639	Up	$-164	05-07 07:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	12	$342	454	454	+0	Up	+$29	05-07 06:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	5	$329	186	528	-342	Up	$-172	05-07 07:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	4	$328	475	201	+273	Down	$-122	05-07 07:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	2	$204	525	0	+525	Down	$-204	05-07 02:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	4	$164	165	165	+0	Down	+$24	05-07 01:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	3	$117	154	98	+56	Down	$-3	05-06 12:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	4	$106	256	0	+256	Down	$-106	05-07 02:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	1	$100	208	0	+208	Down	$-100	05-07 02:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	3	$91	112	112	+0	Up	+$11	05-06 11:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	4	$67	85	85	+0	Down	+$7	05-07 01:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	2	$56	50	50	+0	Down	+$16	05-06 12:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	4	$46	53	53	+0	Down	+$16	05-06 12:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	4	$45	338	0	+338	Down	$-45	05-07 01:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	7	$35	193	10	+183	Up	$-25	05-07 06:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	4	$26	28	28	+0	Up	+$6	05-05 23:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	4	$26	27	27	+0	Up	+$2	05-06 11:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	1	$25	49	0	+49	Down	$-25	05-07 07:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	2	$22	27	27	+0	Down	+$2	05-05 23:51
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	1	$15	23	0	+23	open	—	05-07 07:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	2	$11	8	8	+0	Up	+$1	05-07 06:40
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	2	$11	69	0	+69	open	—	05-05 10:52
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?	1	$11	13	0	+13	Yes	+$2	04-25 02:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	1	$10	500	0	+500	Down	$-10	05-07 00:23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$10	16	0	+16	open	—	04-25 02:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	1	$10	24	0	+24	Down	$-10	05-07 00:25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	05-05 12:18
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	1	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	05-05 09:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-09 05:15:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x234e2a…
05-07 07:50:52	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	23	66¢	$15	0x9df85c…
05-07 07:48:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	76	33¢	$25	0x790e02…
05-07 07:48:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x3eb609…
05-07 07:47:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	198	51¢	$100	0xfb16e5…
05-07 07:45:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	201	51¢	$103	0x086da9…
05-07 07:45:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	201	50¢	$100	0x8c8436…
05-07 07:32:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	345	29¢	$100	0x6c8d76…
05-07 07:31:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	294	34¢	$100	0xb1ced6…
05-07 07:31:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	SELL	213	64¢	$136	0x1d7f5e…
05-07 07:30:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0x45bdd5…
05-07 07:29:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	SELL	259	1¢	$3	0x8d4a1a…
05-07 07:29:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	SELL	617	2¢	$12	0x474370…
05-07 07:25:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	208	12¢	$25	0xd25ba4…
05-07 07:24:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	140	18¢	$25	0x2e889e…
05-07 07:20:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	89	28¢	$25	0x90d361…
05-07 07:19:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	109	23¢	$25	0x7515dd…
05-07 07:19:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	329	30¢	$100	0xeb01c7…
05-07 07:18:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	SELL	232	58¢	$134	0x0ec50c…
05-07 07:17:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	232	43¢	$100	0x93a907…
05-07 07:16:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	SELL	58	49¢	$28	0xdfa57a…
05-07 07:16:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0x71f70a…
05-07 07:10:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	SELL	82	63¢	$52	0xba5af7…
05-07 07:10:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	82	67¢	$54	0xfb3ae5…
05-07 07:09:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	SELL	104	29¢	$30	0x10a76b…
05-07 07:07:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	104	24¢	$25	0x5a84f3…
05-07 07:07:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	SELL	342	49¢	$168	0x6b7247…
05-07 06:56:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	SELL	119	22¢	$26	0x88ff43…
05-07 06:56:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	119	18¢	$21	0x2a66d6…
05-07 06:54:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	54	52¢	$28	0xfd4fb2…
05-07 06:54:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	54	46¢	$25	0x80d4ad…
05-07 06:54:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	57	41¢	$23	0x26cb8d…
05-07 06:53:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0x6e26db…
05-07 06:52:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	224	48¢	$107	0xb8db03…
05-07 06:48:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x548734…
05-07 06:46:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	80	31¢	$25	0xf291d2…
05-07 06:45:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0xa0809e…
05-07 06:44:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x4fba32…
05-07 06:43:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0xc38bfe…
05-07 06:40:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	SELL	8	76¢	$6	0x0434b4…
05-07 06:40:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x3363ee…
05-07 06:33:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xd32e55…
05-07 06:33:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xc23bdb…
05-07 06:32:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xf9775d…
05-07 06:31:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x54d091…
05-07 06:31:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xe6a23c…
05-07 06:30:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x20611a…
05-07 06:30:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xf76d84…
05-07 02:19:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	SELL	256	92¢	$236	0x605f1e…
05-07 02:16:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	256	39¢	$100	0x7b5cbe…
05-07 02:15:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	SELL	426	69¢	$294	0xc9f89b…
05-07 02:15:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	426	48¢	$205	0xdd6f26…
05-07 02:12:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	374	28¢	$104	0x88b34c…
05-07 02:10:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	152	66¢	$100	0x636712…
05-07 02:05:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0x080dff…
05-07 02:01:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	186	41¢	$76	0x0bc515…
05-07 02:01:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	15	43¢	$6	0xfd812f…
05-07 02:01:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x999b21…
05-07 02:01:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	51	43¢	$22	0x61b80d…
05-07 01:59:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	SELL	43	80¢	$35	0x16e9f2…
05-07 01:58:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	43	46¢	$20	0xaf7f2a…
05-07 01:58:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	SELL	122	49¢	$59	0x5a5ad6…
05-07 01:55:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	122	41¢	$50	0xe78e7e…
05-07 01:53:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x652461…
05-07 01:52:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0x7b0866…
05-07 01:50:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xb41f1b…
05-07 01:50:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	83	24¢	$20	0xebc6c7…
05-07 01:49:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	SELL	85	44¢	$37	0x3d6c66…
05-07 01:47:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0xf4118d…
05-07 01:46:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x08aaf0…
05-07 01:45:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x9ddae6…
05-07 00:25:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x823afe…
05-07 00:23:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x596434…
05-06 12:14:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	50	71¢	$36	0xb7d034…
05-06 12:11:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0xebe971…
05-06 12:09:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	SELL	39	64¢	$25	0xe027a6…
05-06 12:08:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	39	26¢	$10	0x214799…
05-06 12:07:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	SELL	14	43¢	$6	0x50c477…
05-06 12:07:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xbe8537…
05-06 12:01:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x308fa7…
05-06 12:01:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	SELL	98	58¢	$57	0x10334b…
05-06 12:00:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0xc6cea2…
05-06 11:59:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	33	3¢	$1	0xf10d00…
05-06 11:59:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xee664f…
05-06 11:52:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	SELL	112	46¢	$51	0xb33bf8…
05-06 11:51:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x9e4f59…
05-06 11:50:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	80	38¢	$30	0x8ece9f…
05-06 11:39:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0x897218…
05-06 11:35:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x240910…
05-06 11:32:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	SELL	24	51¢	$12	0x2db97b…
05-06 11:32:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	24	45¢	$11	0x35e4af…
05-06 11:30:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0xc826c7…
05-06 11:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xc95d37…
05-06 11:28:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x6e4fe4…
05-06 11:28:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x6390b4…
05-05 23:51:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	27	45¢	$12	0xf36f7c…
05-05 23:50:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x62389b…
05-05 23:49:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	SELL	15	68¢	$10	0xd7286a…
05-05 23:48:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xbc3adf…
05-05 23:47:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	SELL	13	46¢	$6	0xa9cf66…