Insubstantial-Randomisation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$68

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

23.9%

Resolved

Trades

105

lifetime

Volume

$549

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-30

last 05-25 07:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

84% 24% $-68

Other

16% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (13) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	3	$85	66	66	+0	open	—	05-04 17:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	5	$42	44	28	+16	Up	$-2	05-07 12:58
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	2	$33	64	64	+0	open	—	05-04 17:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	2	$28	376	0	+376	open	—	05-04 17:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	2	$24	16	16	+0	open	—	05-04 17:33
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 1?	2	$22	23	23	+0	open	—	05-01 10:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	4	$19	25	10	+15	open	—	05-21 04:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	4	$19	20	20	+0	open	—	05-25 06:54
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	2	$18	20	20	+0	open	—	05-01 13:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	2	$15	537	0	+537	open	—	05-04 17:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	3	$15	543	0	+543	Up	$-15	05-05 13:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	5	$14	99	12	+87	Up	+$0	05-05 13:44
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	2	$12	268	268	+0	open	—	05-05 12:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	4	$11	119	9	+111	Up	$-1	05-05 14:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	3	$11	34	0	+34	open	—	05-21 04:28
megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	1	$11	1,736	0	+1,736	open	—	05-01 10:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	4	$10	33	8	+25	Down	+$0	05-05 13:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	1	$10	125	0	+125	open	—	05-04 17:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	2	$10	26	0	+26	Up	$-10	05-05 12:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	3	$9	21	0	+21	open	—	05-25 07:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	4	$9	21	9	+13	Down	+$3	05-05 14:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	1	$8	114	0	+114	open	—	05-01 14:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	2	$8	46	0	+46	Down	$-8	05-07 13:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	5	$7	42	3	+40	Up	$-3	05-05 14:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	2	$7	6	6	+0	Up	+$3	05-05 13:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	4	$6	57	0	+57	open	—	05-25 06:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	3	$6	18	0	+18	Up	$-1	05-05 13:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	2	$6	71	71	+0	Down	$-4	05-05 12:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	1	$5	50	0	+50	Down	$-5	05-07 12:48
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	1	$5	625	0	+625	open	—	04-30 21:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-25 07:01:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x1c8c5b…
05-25 07:01:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x4da6ad…
05-25 07:00:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0xbb9566…
05-25 06:58:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x774f5f…
05-25 06:57:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xa946ef…
05-25 06:57:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x921400…
05-25 06:56:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x87becf…
05-25 06:54:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x56b305…
05-25 06:51:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x640f95…
05-25 06:50:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x38d128…
05-25 06:50:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x750839…
05-21 04:28:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x3279cd…
05-21 04:26:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x857d50…
05-21 04:25:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x02277a…
05-21 04:23:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x9822ce…
05-21 04:22:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0x68bac9…
05-21 04:20:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x696699…
05-21 04:20:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x80c46a…
05-21 04:19:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	43	12¢	$5	0xebd967…
05-07 13:07:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	19	15¢	$3	0x86f3b5…
05-07 13:06:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xf461bf…
05-07 12:58:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	SELL	9	57¢	$5	0x9331eb…
05-07 12:58:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x669dbe…
05-07 12:58:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x8f4973…
05-07 12:57:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	SELL	19	77¢	$15	0x8c67ce…
05-07 12:55:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x4d28ba…
05-07 12:52:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xc57f6a…
05-07 12:48:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xd780e2…
05-05 14:25:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x00bde3…
05-05 14:23:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x1c6318…
05-05 14:23:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	SELL	3	91¢	$2	0xc45b17…
05-05 14:22:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x86007b…
05-05 14:21:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xce078d…
05-05 14:20:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x155859…
05-05 14:19:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x489ad6…
05-05 14:18:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	SELL	9	62¢	$6	0x7c0034…
05-05 14:17:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xade3e1…
05-05 14:17:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x030dca…
05-05 14:14:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x789e08…
05-05 14:14:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x066d89…
05-05 14:12:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x48edb5…
05-05 14:07:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x58cc82…
05-05 14:05:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x29716c…
05-05 14:04:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x8f8680…
05-05 14:03:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x809022…
05-05 14:02:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	SELL	9	58¢	$5	0xecd67e…
05-05 14:01:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x1fd1ff…
05-05 13:59:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xfb6427…
05-05 13:57:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xddc352…
05-05 13:53:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xda9677…
05-05 13:51:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	SELL	8	64¢	$5	0x818420…
05-05 13:51:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xeb9261…
05-05 13:50:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x5d7d0d…
05-05 13:47:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xf10f9d…
05-05 13:47:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x4128b3…
05-05 13:47:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0xdad050…
05-05 13:44:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x4a73ff…
05-05 13:44:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x1f50c3…
05-05 13:44:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xfe803a…
05-05 13:43:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	12	59¢	$7	0xac992f…
05-05 13:40:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0xe98f28…
05-05 13:39:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xacb1e6…
05-05 13:38:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xe0546b…
05-05 13:37:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xb57d7c…
05-05 13:32:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	6	72¢	$5	0xc4d465…
05-05 13:31:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x5b1efa…
05-05 13:29:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa7343f…
05-05 13:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x28e83f…
05-05 13:26:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x157898…
05-05 13:23:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x27f9f8…
05-05 13:19:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x408b07…
05-05 13:10:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x83ce59…
05-05 13:08:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x605a8f…
05-05 13:06:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xc24adf…
05-05 13:06:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xe22f3d…
05-05 12:56:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x0b2b4e…
05-05 12:51:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x123f82…
05-05 12:50:48	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	268	1¢	$2	0xd28d3b…
05-05 12:48:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	SELL	71	1¢	$1	0x19efae…
05-05 12:47:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x6982fe…
05-05 12:42:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xe4cc16…
05-05 12:42:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xdd561c…
05-04 17:52:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	281	3¢	$8	0x2f47c6…
05-04 17:51:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	95	21¢	$20	0x70342a…
05-04 17:48:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xb6f67c…
05-04 17:46:32	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	268	4¢	$10	0xb1a98e…
05-04 17:44:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x8b355e…
05-04 17:41:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xb0f445…
05-04 17:40:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	SELL	66	99¢	$65	0x94e707…
05-04 17:37:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x7e3567…
05-04 17:37:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0xdd62c5…
05-04 17:33:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	SELL	16	90¢	$14	0x07cb22…
05-04 17:31:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x5f6b9b…
05-04 17:30:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	Yes	SELL	64	30¢	$19	0xdaeeac…
05-03 20:33:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	Yes	BUY	64	22¢	$14	0x62096b…
05-01 14:48:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	114	7¢	$8	0xa23557…
05-01 14:04:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x03f9b2…
05-01 13:48:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xddb337…
05-01 13:48:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0xbbe14b…
05-01 10:38:12	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	No	BUY	1,736	1¢	$11	0xe021db…