Evergreen-Icicle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$16

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

61.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$340

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$10

1 position

First seen

2026-01-10

last 07-09 10:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

53% 33% $-4

Crypto

29% 100% +$6

Politics

14% 0% $-19

Sports

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?	No		+27	$14	36¢	$10	$-4	07-09 10:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	2	$47	28	28	+0	open	—	04-29 20:46
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$35	41	0	+41	Yes	+$6	05-05 05:25
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	1	$24	32	0	+32	open	—	01-10 23:16
fifwc kor civ 2026 06 25 spread away 2pt5	1	$20	35	0	+35	open	—	06-25 07:36
fifwc cze rsa 2026 06 18 spread home 1pt5	1	$20	71	0	+71	open	—	06-18 14:00
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	1	$20	28	0	+28	open	—	04-29 20:46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	05-26 07:45
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$19	21	0	+21	Yes	$-19	04-06 11:48
will bitcoin dip to 62k february 23 march 1	1	$18	20	0	+20	open	—	02-28 20:00
will cristiano ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	1	$15	18	0	+18	open	—	06-15 11:41
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31?	1	$15	16	0	+16	open	—	05-26 07:40
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?	1	$14	27	0	+27	open	—	07-09 10:59
fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	1	$10	37	0	+37	open	—	06-29 08:16
fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 team to advance	1	$10	33	0	+33	open	—	07-02 09:20
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch?	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	04-29 20:47
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$7	6	6	+0	open	—	03-13 06:27
Will Montenegro advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$6	9	0	+9	No	+$3	05-11 19:35
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$5	88	88	+0	open	—	03-01 13:10
bitcoin above 72k on march 13	1	$5	16	0	+16	open	—	03-13 06:34
Will Como finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?	1	$5	26	0	+26	open	—	05-11 19:06
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$5	33	0	+33	open	—	05-11 19:23
Will Georgia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$5	26	0	+26	No	$-5	05-11 19:35
Will Georgia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$2	34	0	+34	No	$-2	05-11 19:24
bitcoin above 78k on march 18	1	$2	76	0	+76	open	—	03-17 23:13
will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	1	$1	15	0	+15	open	—	03-29 23:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-09 10:59:58	Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27	51¢	$14	0x6395d1…
07-02 09:20:10	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 team to advance	Croatia	BUY	33	31¢	$10	0x0de5f9…
06-29 08:16:29	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	Japan	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xf9d1bf…
06-25 07:36:01	fifwc kor civ 2026 06 25 spread away 2pt5	Curaçao	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0x40cab9…
06-18 14:00:58	fifwc cze rsa 2026 06 18 spread home 1pt5	Czechia	BUY	71	28¢	$20	0x91bdc1…
06-15 11:41:45	will cristiano ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	18	83¢	$15	0xa19b97…
05-26 07:45:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x52551f…
05-26 07:40:46	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31?	No	BUY	16	92¢	$15	0x7da52a…
05-11 19:35:46	Will Montenegro advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0x024534…
05-11 19:35:18	Will Georgia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x3d65cd…
05-11 19:24:13	Will Georgia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	6¢	$2	0xa2204c…
05-11 19:23:54	Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x5274cb…
05-11 19:06:03	Will Como finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x29dc47…
05-05 05:25:48	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	41	85¢	$35	0x5ce32c…
04-29 20:47:58	Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x09f060…
04-29 20:46:36	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0x862eaf…
04-29 20:46:08	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	SELL	28	99¢	$27	0x44bfba…
04-06 11:48:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	92¢	$19	0x07cb6a…
03-29 23:38:06	will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0x28d439…
03-17 23:13:11	bitcoin above 78k on march 18	Yes	BUY	76	2¢	$2	0x341227…
03-13 06:46:47	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	BUY	28	72¢	$20	0x2d4c34…
03-13 06:34:23	bitcoin above 72k on march 13	Yes	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x1f7236…
03-13 06:27:23	EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	6	49¢	$3	0xee50f0…
03-01 13:13:15	EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0x47cb04…
03-01 13:10:17	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	SELL	88	0¢	$0	0xda2c96…
02-28 20:00:45	will bitcoin dip to 62k february 23 march 1	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x8fa35f…
02-28 19:55:51	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	88	6¢	$5	0x7a6ae5…
01-10 23:16:50	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	No	BUY	32	76¢	$24	0x3b3be6…